Professor doubles down on prediction model of Trump's chances in 2020

Fox News ^ | Joseph A. Wulfsohn

[knighthawk]

Despite recent polls that identify Joe Biden as the heavy favorite in 2020, a political science professor is still standing by his prediction model that shows President Trump having a "91 percent" chance of winning in November.

Mediaite reported on Wednesday that Stony Brook Professor Helmut Norpoth is doubling down on his "Primary Model,” which has correctly predicted five out of the past six elections since 1996 and every single election but two in the past 108 years.

“The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November,” Norpoth said. "This model gets it right for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced."

[roadcat]

“The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November,” Norpoth said.

Pessimist. My model gives Trump a 95 percent chance!

[SmokingJoe]

Before making the stunning comeback in the South Carolina primary and carrying the following races, Biden came in fourth place in Iowa with just 15.8 percent of the vote and came in fifth place in New Hampshire with just 8.4 percent. Norpoth stressed that enthusiasm is key.

“The terrain of presidential contests is littered with nominees who saw a poll lead in the spring turn to dust in the fall,” Norpoth told Mediaite. “The list is long and discouraging for early frontrunners. Beginning with Thomas Dewey in 1948, it spans such notables as Richard Nixon in 1960, Jimmy Carter in 1980, Michael Dukakis in 1988, George H.W. Bush in 1992, and John Kerry in 2004, to cite just the most spectacular cases.”

Norpoth’s model, which correctly predicted Trump's victory roughly nine months before the 2016 election, suggests that the president will win by even a wider margin in the electoral college with 362 electoral votes versus the 304 he earned against Hillary Clinton.

[KevinB]

Unfortunately, I don’t think the model factors in Dem cheating. This election will see the most epic Dem cheating in history. That’s what worries me most.

[ConjunctionJunction]

Me, too!

:(

[The Accused]

Our model forecasts a 100% chance of Dems cheating. It’s never been wrong.

[Cowboy Bob]

Which 2 did they get wrong...and why?

[GaryCrow]

Unfortunately, I don’t think the model factors in Dem cheating. This election will see the most epic Dem cheating in history. That’s what worries me most.

Me too.

In 2016 the dems were so sure Hillary was going to win they didn't go all out with the cheating, they didn't think they needed to. It came back to bite them so they won't make the same mistake again, they're going to pull out all the stops. You can already see the effort with the mail in voting push.

It always amazes me how uncounted ballot boxes are found in car trunks around south Florida days after the election. They actually pull this stuff with straight faces and get away with it. This election they'll probably have pre-stuffed ballot boxes staged in the trunks of half the cars in Miami.

Trump's people had better have a plan to counter the election fraud or it'll sink him, I hope they're prepared. The dems are going to pull every dirty trick in the book.

[rxsid]

"Norpoth’s model, which correctly predicted Trump's victory roughly nine months before the 2016 election, suggests that the president will win by even a wider margin in the electoral college with 362 electoral votes versus the 304 he earned against Hillary Clinton."

Agreed. Trump will win by a larger E.C. vote, and possibly "popular" vote, in 2020 than he did in 2016.

Law and order. It's fairly universal among the non-anarchists.

[Robert DeLong]

As Mediaite noted, the two elections the model failed to predict was the 1960 election of John F. Kennedy and the 2000 election of George W. Bush.

I would have thought one of them was Truman beating Dewey. 8>)

[SmokingJoe]

Truman beating Dewey in 1948 actually proves the good professor's hypothesis.
Dewey was ahead in the polls for most of 1948 just like Biden is right now. The media were convinced Dewey was going to win.
Truman ended up winning it.
Remember the front page of The Chicago Daily Tribune?

[Pollster1]

No mathematical model is useful in this year. Models only help to the extent that the past is similar to the present, and we know nothing about how COVID, riots, looting, the economic swings, and the rest will affect actual votes in November. I’m optimistic, but I would not tout my math (which also shows a very likely Trump win) as anything to trust the way I trusted previous predictions.

[macrahanish #1]

Volunteer to be a poll watcher. My mother did this in 2004, and stopped ‘rat shenanigans at a Pittsburgh polling place.

[Hot Tabasco]

doubling down on his "Primary Model,” which has correctly predicted five out of the past six elections since 1996 and every single election but two in the past 108 years.

How old is this guy anyway?

[quilterdebbie]

I’m thinking he ran the models on elections in the past.

[jmaroneps37]

“Despite recent polls that identify Joe Biden as the heavy favorite in 2020,...” Our good friends at Faux News telling us brain dead Joe Fingers is a “Heavy favorite,” reminds us that Fox is NOT YOUR FRIEND. Dump Fox for OAN or NewsMax TV both are what Fox used to pretend to be when it pretended to care what we think. Fox is owned by the scumbags of the Murdoch family who hate America, hate Trump and hate us.

[Vaduz]

Wonder if the political science professor knew the Titanic was unsinkable?.

[mdmathis6]

I think he applied his methodology against past elections over the last 108 yeas using the same metrics(as though he were present in those years but not knowing the outcomes before hand) and got the results that he got.

[Henchster]

Here’s my very simple analysis of 2020 - no polling necessary:

Crooked Hillary was a dreadful candidate - yes, even worse than Slow-Joe Biden.

The “Biden” campaign will not make the mistake of not campaigning in Wisconsin, and since he is a Scranton native, Pennsylvania gets tougher too.

This time, a Brenda Snipes-type will make sure to create enough Miami-Dade votes to ensure PDJT does not take Florida again.

Voting “problems” will be nation-wide, Clinton/Bush/Obama judges will leave polling places open for hours, if not days, so that “no vote goes uncounted.”

Vote “Harvesting” will fraudulently create the largest “turnout” in history - millions of fake votes will all just happen to be straight DNC ticket ballots.

The media will declare Biden the winner at 8:00pm EST, helping depress conservative turnout in Western states.

BLM and Black Panther will be stationed outside conservative polling places in massive numbers to intimidate and further depress the legitimate vote.

All of the above will be enough to overwhelm the honest vote, giving the DNC the White House, House, AND Senate. Biden’s handlers will immediately move to increase the size of the Supreme Court with a bunch of commie appointments. Then the executive orders for gun confiscation, private automobile restrictions, and targeted private business closures will flow under the guise of “National Health Emergency.” All ratified as “Constitutional” by the “New” Supreme Court.

And that folks, will be the end of the Republic, and the beginning of the Union of the Socialist States of America - USSA. Within ten years the entire planet will be under a United Nations-type world government, and 800 years of Magna-Carta personal freedom expansions will have been snuffed out in a decade.

Depressing, isn’t it?

[Robert DeLong]

Well I remember it, which is why I mentioned it, but not from actually seeing it in real time, as I was still a few years from taking my first breath. 8>)

I still would never had guessed the 2 where his calculations, or whatever it involves, were the ones where it failed. 8>)