Posted on 07/08/2020 2:13:22 AM PDT by DoughtyOne
PING LIST - Please contact me as needed...
COVID-19 Update # 112
As of 07/07/2020 23:15 PDST United States CDC - Provisional Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST Johns Hopkins University - Capture Nations Informaton
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST Johns Hopkins University - Capture Counties Information
As of 00/00/2020 23:46 PDST Johns Hopkins University - Process JHU Data
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST WorldofMeters - Document Core Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST WorldofMeters - Capture Nations Information
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST WorldofMeters - Capture States Information
As of 00/00/2020 00:00 PDST WorldofMeters - Data Processing begins...
As of 00/00/2020 ??:?? PDST Publish COVID-19 Update - 00/00/00
Thank you for stopping by to check out the COVID-19 Update.
Here you can find...
Section: 01 Commentary, Special Reports, COVID-19 Update Info, & System Notes
Section: 02 the United States Situation
Section: 03 the Global Community Situation Outside China
Section: 04 the Global Community Situation Including China with reservations
Section: 05 the Mortality Report
Section: 06 Miscellaneous Reports of Interest
Section: 07 the United States, Counties (alphabetical / case no descending)
Section: 08 the United States, States Ranking, Provisional Numbers, & Territories
Section: 09 the United States, Ranked with Other Nations
Section: 10 the End of this COVID-19 Update
Section: 11 Data Sources and a Link to My Own Spreadsheet
Section: 12 Linked Spreadsheet: Counties, States, Provisional, Territories, & Nations
Section: 13 Links to Other Resources
Section: 01
Commentary, Special Reports, and COVID-19 Update Information2
Interesting Tid-bits (hopefully)
Little Higher Fatalities Observed Yesterday
Having remained under 1,000 for nearly a month now, yesterday's 991 had me a
little worried. It does compare favorably to the same day the week before, but
that day was suspect in my eyes. I didn't research it, but it looked out of
place, and I suspected I would find a state had submitted some corrections.
Some folks mentioned they thought this might still be lagging number from the
holiday weekend. That's possible, but I don't lean in that direction. I just
think we had a higher day. Now the day may have had some clericl housekeeping
involved with one state dumping a few more than normal into the mix.
We'll have to watch this over the next few days, and see if we remain low in
the short term, or start to see a steady increase. Sure hope that won't be the
case.
China Decides to Play the 'Who Did the Most Testing Game?"
Around 06/23, China started putting out it's testing numbers. I thought
they were suspect. The number they put out was 90,410,000. Ours and most
everyone else's numbers are specific. For instance on 06/28, our number of
of tests at the ned of the day was 32,592,368. That specificity separates it
from the number China put out. It was rounded to the 10 thousandth place. In
addition, China has not updated that number once. So I do not inlude China in
the Nation's Comparison Sort regarding Testing, and any place that reports out
global testing numbers for a comparison.
Section: 02
The Following Addresses the Numbers Here in
the United Staetes of America
Here we go...
The number of New Cases fell off a bit yesterday. It was still one of our higheest
days. Fatalities did bump up for the day. Not sure what to make of that, until a
few more days go by, to see if a new trend develops.
Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Critical here, courtesy of amorphous
Here are more of our numbers...
Active cases continue to climb.
Our Slice of the COVID-19 Pie
The growth of our slice of the pie has been dropping recently.
Here are the numbers I've been tracking, Globally Declared and Active Cases.
This is bouncing up and down as I predicted a few days back. Sadly the trend
seems to be upward. As long as we have as many daily New Cases as we have had
this area won't look good. As mentioned often, the number of Fatalities is what
it's all about right now.
Active Cases in the United States / Chart
Unlike some of the other charts here, we should see a good rise and
fall at some point withone.
Note that this presents the one day and then 7 and 14 day averaging versions.
Remember, these are not new Declared Cases. These are remaing Active Cases.
Clearly the single, seven, and fourteen day lines are moving way up.
Testing and New Case Figures
Requested by stocksthatgoup
Some folks have shown an interest in seeing the COVID-19 Test figures compared
to the New Cases being declared. The following Data addresses that.
Look at that postive percentage yesterday. It has been just shy of two months
since we've had these levels of positive testing percentages. Levels of testing
was actually down about 35k from the day before.
Is it just me or does it seem strange that as these percentages rise, the level
of testing has gone down? Ist that because they are getting the New Case numbers
they want without the higher levels of testing?
We've dropped nearly 180,000 tests per day since the 3rd.
Crossing our fingers for low Fatalities.
Hope this doesn't wind up looking like there is a morror involved in this
chart soon.
The U. S. Stats / w 10 Day Averaging / Fr: 03/17
Requested by: Texas Eagle
This data and chart presents things in a little different way. In the
chart it is easy to see the relationship of these numbers.
The Chart will use the data all the way back to 03/17, but the data displayed
here will only go back one month.
Here is the chart to match.
Maybe is isn't entirely wishful thinking, but it does seem there is a bit of
movement from both lines there, towards each other. Would like to see the
Active Cases and Resolved Cases intersect soon.
Section: 03
The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
without Mainland China
Here is the first set of Data for the Global Outside China
Territories
Another high day globally.
Fata.lities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active Cases, and
Serious/Critical Cases - Globally, Excluding M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and
Serious/Critical here, courtesy of amorphous
Here we go...
For your review...
How is the Global Community Outside China Doing,
Without U. S. numbers?
Let's see...
This metric looked worse yesterday. Not the worst day, but will not a day we
would like to see either. It's that time of the week. For several days we'll
be seeing number we don't care for.
Globally New Cases were higher, but in the U. S. they fell off a little. Again,
as long as Fatalities remain on the lower end of the spectrum, that's good.
Yesterday's Fatality figure was higher than expected. It may be a one day blip.
We'll see...
These charts are now not only seeing growth internationally, but domestically
as well.
The Active Cases outside China Globally / Chart
As in the U. S. version of this, we should see a good rise and fall at
some point these two.
Note that these present the one day and then 7 and 14 day averaging versions.
Remember, these are not new declared Cases. These are remaing active cases.
Global Active Cases rose yesterday. Here in the U. S. they fell a bit.
Special Section on France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the U. K.
Case growth.
Jim Noble mentioned he'd like to see the US numbers added here. I added them
in on 06/21/2020. I did not add them to the chart because it would have
dwarfed the European nations chart lines. (they would have been reduced to
about 15% of their normal size)
Let's Look at Some Numbers in Five Day Increments:
Hard to miss the correction in the direction of the U. K. there. I double checked
the data, and the correction has been sustained for the last day and a half.
It is accurate. Unless a correction occurs, the U. K. just changed
direction.
The U. K. line there is quite similar to France's line over a month ago.
Sweden and It's Neighbors, Who Has the Best Tactic Against COVID-19?
Sweden is doing its own thing with regard to isolating. I think most people
are aware of it by now.
Here are some numbers to help us look at this issue.
Sweden still remains a hot topic, and it's tragectory IS NOT looking good
on that Chart. In it's own group, it's not good at all. If you compare it
to some European Nations, it looks no worse.
Movers and Shakers...
I will present the top fifty nations with the most New Cases and New
Fatilities.
Here we go...
Not much to crow about there. Still, those Fatality numbers although higher than
we would like, aren't all that bad. Hoping they drop back down today
Global osChina Stats / w 10 Day Averaging / Fr: 03/05
Requested by: Texas Eagle
This data and chart presents things in a little different way. In the
chart it is easy to see the relationship of these numbers.
The Chart will use the data all the way back to 03/05, but the data
displayed here will only go back one month.
Here is the chart to match.
I like being able to follow the movement of these stats visually.
Section: 04
The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
including Mainland China*
Mainland China's numbers are 0.009% of today's total global numbers.
A Look at Declared, Resolved, and Active Cases, Includes M/L China
End of day figures follow:
I was surprsed to see the upward movement robust enough to carry us over the
62.00% level of Resolved Cases globally. That's where we want to be, growing
higher each day.
Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active, and Serious/Critical
Cases Globally, Including M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and
Serious/Critical here, courtesy of amorphous
For your review...
Section: 05
the Mortality Report
Here is the data for four entities...
Here are the figures for the growing case totals for four entities.
We hear all sorts of stories about how these figures are wildly off. The CDC
has studied them and seems to think they may actually be on the low side of
things. I am providing the CDC Provential Numbers down below. Not sure if
anyone has a rock solid number. I doubt it is possible. This is what is
reported out by WoM and JHU. Check out the CDC numbers too.
Charts like this one only show growth. That's why I recently took the advice
of a FReeper and added in a new chart for the U. S. and Global outside China
regions.
Here are figures revealing the daily growth for those four entities.
US Fatalities continue to remain in sub-1,000 territory, but yesterday's number
was a squeaker. Hoping to see a wider margin tomorrow.
Since the beginning of COVID-19's activity in the U. S., higher New Cases were
soon followed by elevated Fatalities. If we have gone to school on the data
of this disease, we know who should avoid exposure the most. So if the
demographic that has little to fear from the disease is out there getting
infected, it may not be a bad thing at all. If the Fatalities remain low,
vastly higher cases may simply increase the rapidity of the saturation of the
people in public who have already fought it off. And that may facilitate the
end of the disease. I'm sure others know this, but I did want to explain why
my thinking has fluctuated over time regarding these dynamics.
Here, let's look at data for the U. S. broken out by itself.
In the lasts 32 days, we have looked very good in this area. I'm not sure we've
had even one clean count day over 1,000 out of those 31 days.
New York, New Jersey, I'm sure you'll have a very hard time figuring out where
they botched things... /s We had a little mini-event just after New Jersey also.
Section: 06
Population Saturation
Here are figures revealing how many people in each population base represent one
case. I'm also showing what percent of each population base is infected at this
time.
We're still slipping here, but globlly yesterday was a good day. The number of
Active Cases fell off substantially globally. There was a huge wave of Resolved
Cases that crashed down on yesterday.
Nations With Lots of Cases
At the end of the day yesterday, there were:
It's hard to belive there are that many nations with massive numbers.
Daily Case Report Evaluation
I'll be keeping tabs on the daily tallies for days of the week for a while. Folks have
noticed some patterns of larger and smaller data entry on certain days, and on Fridays
sometimes the numbers get noticeably larger because of it.
And we now know Thursdays have potential to break out also. Yikes!
IMO Let's check out the numbers and a chart.
Those numbers are pretty impressive, but if Fatalities remain low, the Herd
Immunity folks will score points. Let's see how it goes.
Note that these new daily records this week, with the exception of Wednesday's
numbers, are outpacing the previous week by lesser amounts. Looking at that
chart, I think it's clear that is a big change from one to two weeks ago.
Section: 07
The Top 200 Counties in the U. S., by Number of Cases
This little report lists 200 Counties in the United States in declining Case numbers.
There is also a listing that is alphabetical. This report list only the entities
and the number of Cases in the two different sorts.
It will also be available as a downloadable Excel file in Section 12.
Section: 08
States of the Union and the District of Columbia, Compared to Each Other
Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
If this area interests you, please use this LINK to the source, and review
the lengthy description and explanation of it's development process.
There are two reports. The presentation above comes from the second one,
and the detailed segmented information below it, may interest you.
These can now also be found under the states on the Alphabetical list. The
states and these entity's numbers should be combined to match that of the
U. S. figures each day.
Section: 09
The United States, Where it Ranks With Other Nations?
Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.
The U. S. will be highlighted red here so we can find it easily in the list.
There was 215 nations on this list last night now. I didn't want to post
seven lists with 215 nations on it, so I picked the top 50. Coincidentally,
one report category had the U. S. at 41st, so it wasn't showing up on the
list with the 31 top nations on it. That wasn't the reason why I extended the
list length, but it did work out well.
I work on the nations right next to the states on my spreadsheet. The
states with the District of Columbia come in at a total of 51 lines.
I decided to keep the international reports near that length, and 50
was good enough.
Here we go... for your review.
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
We came in at 25th again on the Testing per million scale yesterday. That's our
lowest standing yet.
Progress...
Section: 10
Here is what it is all about. From January 20th to the present.
This concludes our look back at yesterday's data. Take care...
Section: 11
Data for this Report Sourced From:
LINK WorldoMeters
LINK Johns Hopkins University
The Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE)
LINK United States Center for Disease Control - Provisional Numbers
Listed in the order of current utilization...
LINK You are Invited to Review My COVID-19 Spreadsheet (XLSX)
There is not an XLS version available for distribution at this time.
Section: 12
Other Features:
LINK US Counties200, States & DC51, Territories & Other Entities11, Nations214,
and the CDC Provisional Counts53
Five Excel Spreadsheet datasets you can sort for your own studies...
Section: 13
Links to other resources:
I cannot vouch for these sites. Please use your own judgement.
LINK Adventist Health Coronavirus Resource Hub - Scroll down for useful info
LINK Antibiotic Vitamin, the (Vitamin D)
Good article on Vitamin D's likely role in prevention of infection. Thanks Blam.
LINK CDC Data for Download - Scroll down - Excel required. Includes death stats.
LINK CDC National Center for Health Services
Provisional deaths as determined by review of vital documents. Much lower...
LINK CDC Secondary Data and Statistics - Portal Entry / Look around
LINK Coronavirus (COVID-19) Map
LINK Coronavirus infection risk may be reduced by Vitamin D
by Former CDC Chief Dr. Tom Frieden
LINK Coronavirus Spread Quickly Around the World in Late 2019, Study Shows
the University College London Genetics Institute
LINK COVID-19 Deaths Broken Out by Thirds, 05/07/20 Map of US Counties
Very revealing display of Concentrated Death Zones - thanks hoosiermama
LINK COVID-19 First U.S. Case, Treatment, features Remdesivir
New England Journal of Medicine article
LINK Cytokine Storm, med Actemra, Physician near death saved
LINK Diamond Princess Review at 634 Case Point of Eventual 712
LINK Hydroxychloroquine Article: International Poll
Daily Mail Reports, Most Effective Treatment According to 6,000 Physicians
LINK Hydroxychloroquine Has about 90 Percent Chance of Helping COVID-19 Patients
the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons, reports 91.6% of patients improved clinically
LINK IHME - Institute for Health Matrix and Evaluation
LINK National Institutes of Health - Cornavirus (COVID-19)
LINK Nasal Irrigation is the Key, COVID-19 Related
LINK New York City - interesting breakdown, borough, age, sex
LINK On the Origin of CCP Virus, A Documentary Movie (turn up the sound)
Epoch Times: I highly recommend this very well documented report.
LINK Rt COVID-19
Calculates and displays the Rt Factor for each state. Thanks FreedomPoster.
LINK World Health Organization
Anyone else have a funny feeling that the pandemic will magically disappear on November 4th?
I think we’ll still be having problems, but the media will stop playing it up at that point.
The increase in daily fatalities isn’t much of a mystery....it is about 12 days after the large increase in cases (around June 25-26), and the median time from hospital admission to becoming a fatality (if not recovered) is from 5-25 days with the median being 18 days. We should see an increase in fatalities for the next few days. Although the demographics are trending younger which will keep fatalities lower than in the past.
Bookmarking for later
All those charts and the numbers of deaths from anything close to covid is about 5 percent...
95 percent recovery? I haven’t heard that yet...
The serious/critical number continues it’s very slow decline. While the mortality figures would show a lag from reported cases, the hospitalizations would not. Or not as much. So despite the surge in numbers of reported cases, we are not seeing a surge in hospitalizations. I know there were some local increases in ICU utilization in places like Houston, but nationally the trend is the other way. That’s why I’m confident this surge in cases will not result in significantly higher fatalities. We would already see them in the hospitals.
Mark
I started tracking the number of new hospitalizations of COVID patients in Florida.
Jul 2 = 341
Jul 3 = 244
Jul 4 = 160
Jul 5 = 150
Jul 6 = 380
Jul 7 = 333
Even though we have had record numbers of new COVID cases in Florida for over two weeks, we are not seeing any sort of increase in hospitalizations for COVID infected patients.
I will continue tracking the COVID hospitalization numbers to see if there are any changes.
If other states are reporting covid hospitalizations, it would be good to post the data from those states.
Here is the link to the source document:
http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_partners/covid19_report_archive/state_reports_latest.pdf
Florida also reports the number of covid positive residents and staff in Long Term Care Facilities.
http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_partners/covid19_report_archive/ltcf_latest.pdf
On July 2 there were 2084 covid positive residents.
On July 8 there were 2489 covid positive residents.
On July 2 there were 3279 covid positive staff.
On July 8 there were 4542 covid positive staff.
Florida has set aside something like 12 nursing homes who only have covid positive residents or staff.
Florida also regularly tests the residents and staff at all nursing homes for covid.
Not sure if there is a trend here or not. But I will continue to follow on a daily basis.
What are other states reporting????
China Decides to Play the 'Who Did the Most Testing Game?"
China is suddenly back in the game with fatalities occurring again, for the past several days. Note below that their DFI (daily fatality index) exceeds the US index now.
So are most of the countries on my list below, including Sweden. The key is to keep the DFI below 0.5, as Spain, France, Germany, Korea, and a number of other countries have been able to do; some basically eliminating covid deaths entirely. Unfortunately, Italy is also back in trouble, along with China (See below).
The following countries are all concerning with respect to the spread of covid-19:
Updated projection for 7 July:
As suspected several days ago, fatalities now seem to be increasing slightly with the increase in case numbers. We're also seeing large variations in numbers from day to day. Surprisingly, 18 July fatalities are projected to be the lowest since early March. A recalculation, planned for 13 July, may change that, however.
•Blue line represents projected death totals.
•Yellow line is actual death totals based on WorldofMeters.info data.
•Purple line is actual case numbers offset by 14 days.
•Red line represents projected daily deaths.
•Black extension lines are trend lines.
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