Posted on 06/28/2020 3:58:07 PM PDT by lonestar67
A New York Times/Siena College poll finds that Joseph R. Biden Jr. is ahead of the president by 14 points, leading among women and nonwhite voters and cutting into his support with white voters.
Published June 24, 2020Updated
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
I was a decision analyst and metrics forecaster for many years in my company, and have built Monte Carlo models for work. My personal election model has been in development for at least a decade.
I was part of a group of Freepers who analyzed the 2010 House elections during the Tea Party, and we motivated people to ignore the polls and follow the data.
-PJ
To paraphrase Winston Churchill: Never give in, never-never-never....
Statistics 101 - for a poll to be valid it must have a sufficiently large Sample Size and it must be a RANDOM Sample of the General Population.
But we know this NEVER happens. Instead, the pollster insists on knowing in advance how many Republicans are polled, how many Democrats are polled, how many Independents are polled and numerous other bits of data about each person polled...the very OPPOSITE of a RANDOM Sample.
To control the outcome of the Poll, the Pollster, knowing that 34% of Americans are solid Republicans, allows only 21%-23% of those polled to be Republicans. And so on and so forth...until they can predict quite accurately what the Poll Results will be PRIOR to beginning the polling of the non-RANDOM Sample of people polled in their phony-baloney Poll.
It’s important we understand the differing assumptions in the polls. On the other hand it’s also important to understand that these say more about unreliability than about alternate outcomes - though it says some about each.
“Not a single pollster will reveal the number of non-respondents “
A poll posted here on FR a few days ago had in the internals at the very end the statement that the results of the poll are derived from the 1-2 percent of those reached who completed the call.
Iow more than 98 percent of those called hung up....98 percent.
How does 10-12 million people watching him equate to a lack of enthusiasm? Attendance at rally was down from capacity but their were demonstrable reasons for that.
You don’t think hysterical China Virus news and threats of violence held down the crowd size? Seriously?
Around 12,000 should up according to count from metal detector tests. That is a good size considering circumstances.
It is sad that the fake news media has trained the public to put so much stock in their fake polls.
People literally view them as some kind of score - as in a football game - they are not! The score in an athletic competition is a tally showing which team is actually winning so far.
Election polls do not show who is winning - they are just opinions and predictions of a future competition. The voting hasn’t started yet, so how could there already be a score?
But yet we always hear people talk about how Trump or Biden is “doing“, or who is “ahead”, who is “gaining” or who is “trailing”. People act like the polls are a score card when they are not.
Then, after the fake news falsely convinces the public that a politician has “lost support”, they don’t stop there; they attribute the “loss” to some false cause.
This is how they build their false narratives. They say for example that Trump has lost ground due to his “poor handling of the pandemic“. One lie built on another lie - but they reinforce each other and create the illusion of cause and effect - which sounds like reasoning - which “makes sense”.
What happens is that if people trust a poll showing Trump trailing, they believe Trump is actually “trailing”. And if he’s trailing, there must be a reason for it. He must be dong something wrong. And poor handling of Coronavirus is as good an explanation as any. After all, he is down in the polls - so whole thing makes sense.
This is how propaganda works - juxtaposing two lies in a false cause and effect relationship creates “confirmation bias”.
Make no mistake - these polls are not just to demoralize the opposition, or make the opposition over-confident - they are also used to brainwash the voters.
If people believe the fake polls, they also tend to believe the fake explanations offered for why the polls are showing what they are showing.
STOP listening to the liberal LYING Media including Fox News.
It makes you look STUPID!!!!!!!!!!!
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