Posted on 06/22/2020 6:32:39 PM PDT by NoLibZone
But critics say the study oversimplified answers to one of COVID-19’s most vexing questions
Months into the new coronavirus pandemic, researchers are grappling with an urgent question: How much risk do we have of catching COVID-19 — or dying from it — from our chance encounters?
The debate has flared as authorities find themselves alternately accused of moving too fast or not fast enough in easing restrictions so more business and activity can resume.
Overall, it’s probably less now than many likely believe, given the daily drumbeat of new cases, hospitalizations and deaths, according to new research this month by a pair of medical scientists at Stanford University and UCLA.
“Across the country, current probabilities of infection transmission, hospitalization, and death from COVID19 vary substantially, yet severe outcomes are still rare events,” the study said. “Individuals may be overestimating their risks of hospitalization and death and a moderate number and frequency of community contacts is unlikely to overwhelm hospital capacity in most U.S. settings.”
The study found a 50-to-64-year-old person who has a single random contact has, on average, a 1 in 852,000 chance of being hospitalized or a 1 in 19.1 million chance of dying based on rates as of the last week of May.
“We were surprised how low the relative risk was,” Klausner said.
The study assumes the same risk for every individual, even though it is known to be higher in certain regions, occupations and residential settings where there have been repeated outbreaks — meat-packing plants, nursing homes, health care jobs, jails and prisons. The study also did not account for a person’s pre-existing health conditions.
(Excerpt) Read more at mercurynews.com ...
I believe it. I live in a city of around 1.1 million. As of yesterday we’ve had 60 deaths contributed to covid. I personally know no one who has had it.
what matters is that people are wearing the masks in order to make it easier to commit terrorism, and staying safe in order to put a major dent in the USD worldwide
social distancing will be officially lifted as soon as no longer needed by liberals to put creepy in the presidency.
:(
Right on schedule...
481 Tyson Foods Employees Test Positive for COVID-19
https://www.westernjournal.com/ap-hundreds-test-positive-tyson-foods-plant-arkansas/
Much better than their odds as a motorist caught in a BLMm rally . . .
(See report here https://data.cdc.gov/api/views/9bhg-hcku/rows.csv?accessType=DOWNLOAD )
From the report it is those older than 65 who are the majority dying from the virus, as it lists 80 percent of all deaths to be those over 65 and of these deaths, these are people who died in mostly in nursing homes
Consider a nursing home medium stay before death is 5 months without a virus, and now when extra funds are distributed for virus deaths even if those that would have otherwise died, then really isn’t the major threat of the virus the remaining 20 percent, the other wise “healthy” , e.g. those less than 65 and not in a nursing home with other terminal conditions?
So as we approach 120,000 thousands USA deaths as the “official“ talley, just 20 percent of these deaths are the real risk from the rest of the healthy population of 330 million or about 25,000 deaths which is similar to any other virus, but not similar in hysteria.
Therefore all the draconian laws really has been over the concern for 25 thousand USA deaths out of a population of 328 million, which is 1 in 13,000 chance that a healthy adult will breath in virus gas and die ?
They really needed the impact of the numbers from the nursing homes.
Those people were murdered.
Good to hear. I am 61. If you are over 80, your scrwed.
Please don’t post me with “X was over 100 years old.” You know my meaning. Under 65 and your odds of dying are tiny. Over 80 and it can be 20% or more. would not want a 1 in 4 chance of dying just cause I got infected,
Yep, Nov. 7th.
“I personally know no one who has had it.”
Neither do I or anyone one I know. Med journals I’ve been reading are starting to see low predictions fatality rates
I damned sure if PIAPs was Pres, we wouldn’t even know about it.
This a shake down and a sham!
...it is ALL about implementing SOCIALIST POWER
what matters is that people are wearing the masks in order to make it easier to commit terrorism, and staying safe in order to put a major dent in the USD worldwide
___________________________________________________
How many scientists have now weighed in with similar conclusions on the virus (putting the political opportunism aside for a moment)?
Article yesterday that Italy is seeing attenuation and less severe symptoms,even in elderly with comorbidities, for example.
Our resident virusphobes are silent. I hope they are experiencing a sense of liberation.
Now, can we just start fighting back against the _real_goal of all this? It is not socialism, BTW. It is totalitarianism of the worst sort, the theft of our nation and the overt threat of death to anyone who stands in their way.
For those who said they masked to protect us elders, will you fight for the liberty and life of those same elders? For those who said their masks were a mark of respect and caring, will you now show the same respect and caring for those who have lost livelihoods, either businesses or jobs, because of the color of their skin or the tenor of their thoughts? If you previously followed the science, are you aware that STEM was declared racist?
Those who cited protection of their own lives and those of their family, will you now accept that the masks were a means to the end of those lives?
It would be really helpful if the CDC estimated the TOTAL number of Americans who are or have been infected.
We have performed 27.6 million tests. In other words, 8.4% of the USA population has been tested.
We have 2.3 million confirmed positive tests. That (confusingly!) works out to an 8.4% infection rate.
As far as I know, the CDC is still not posting the number of people who test positive for COVID antibodies - but do not have an active COVID infection.
In Europe, at least 4 cities or regions have estimated their TOTAL infection rate - past + present infections.
Those 4 estimates are between 11% and 15%.
If we knew the total USA infection rate, we could calculate the Case Fatality Rate.
My own USA estimate is a 10% infection rate - 33 million.
That would make our Case Fatality Rate about 0.36%.
A bad flu season has a Case Fatality Rate around 0.15%.
I am 1,000 times more worried about the goofball in her car, wearing her mask, and texting.
“Tyson Foods”.
Covid flavored chicken breasts. yummy
(shortages of chicken now?)
For the current influenza season, the USA has about 180 deaths in the 0-18 age group.
I will send you the exact number and link if you need it.
If you are over 80, your scrwed.
______________________________________
I am 77. I feel fine. I am not *screwed* because of a virus. By the time you pass 75, you’ve made your peace with being in the final portion of life. I already have a larger chance of dying than someone your age.
So what? When it’s my time, it’s my time. I will be somewhere better, but you younger folks are going to have to fight your way back to freedom.
Worry about that, not the risk to someone in the final fifth of life.
I’m in the “death zone” (over 65), but I will not wear a mask unless forced to in a regular situation. Hospitals, nursing homes, I will. I did not wear one at the post office today. 2 of the 3 counter people weren’t wearing one, either. Plastic shields up, though.
+1
I had it. My son had it. My cousins wife had it. Their son had it. The wifes sis had it. Her husband has it and is on a ventilator. I know of 6 people who died. It is real.
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