| Democrat - 229 | Toss-Up - 79 | Trump - 230 | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safe | Strong | Leaning | Tilt | Tilt | Leaning | Strong | Safe | ||||||||
| EV | State | EV | State | EV | State | EV | State | EV | State | EV | State | EV | State | EV | State |
| 55 | California | 9 | Colorado | 10 | Minnesota | 4 | New Hampshire | 29 | Florida | 11 | Arizona | 9 | Alabama | ||
| 7 | Connecticut | 4 | Maine | 6 | Nevada | 16 | Michigan | 16 | Georgia | 3 | Alaska | ||||
| 3 | District of Columbia | 5 | New Mexico | 20 | Pennsylvania | 6 | Iowa | 6 | Arkansas | ||||||
| 3 | Delaware | 13 | Virginia | 10 | Wisconsin | 15 | North Carolina | 4 | Idaho | ||||||
| 4 | Hawaii | 18 | Ohio | 11 | Indiana | ||||||||||
| 20 | Illinois | 38 | Texas | 6 | Kansas | ||||||||||
| 10 | Maryland | 8 | Kentucky | ||||||||||||
| 11 | Massachusetts | 8 | Louisiana | ||||||||||||
| 14 | New Jersey | 6 | Mississippi | ||||||||||||
| 29 | New York | 10 | Missouri | ||||||||||||
| 7 | Oregon | 3 | Montana | ||||||||||||
| 4 | Rhode Island | 5 | Nebraska | ||||||||||||
| 3 | Vermont | 3 | North Dakota | ||||||||||||
| 12 | Washington | 7 | Oklahoma | ||||||||||||
| 9 | South Carolina | ||||||||||||||
| 3 | South Dakota | ||||||||||||||
| 11 | Tennessee | ||||||||||||||
| 6 | Utah | ||||||||||||||
| 5 | West Virginia | ||||||||||||||
| 3 | Wyoming | ||||||||||||||
| 182 | 31 | 16 | 4 | 75 | 0 | 104 | 126 | ||||||||
-PJ
don’t know where the money is coming from, but worth noting this:
12 Jun: The Hill: Biden not using Bloomberg-tied ad agency in campaign: report
By Julia Manchester
Axios reported on Friday that the Biden campaign would not be utilizing Hawkfish, which was founded by Bloomberg last spring ahead of his presidential run...
The Los Angeles Times reported on Wednesday that a number of tech experts and progressives within the party voiced opposition to using Hawkfish in Biden’s presidential bid given its ties to Bloomberg and record in his ill-fated campaign.
Bloomberg is looking to play a role in Democratic efforts to unseat Trump. The Times reported that he invested another $35 million into Hawkfish...
Trump’s campaign has been pouring money into his digital operation throughout his presidency. Trump Victory, a joint effort between the campaign and the Republican National Committee, said in April it had reached 17 million voters in less than a month and recruited over 276,000 new volunteers since adjusting to an all-virtual campaign on March 13...
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/502439-biden-not-using-bloomberg-tied-ad-agency-in-campaign-report
Great chart. I would recommend one small change: Use Tilt-D and Tilt-R or Tilt-T
I don’t put much stock in these apocalyptic polls, most of which are registered voter polls and many of which are ridiculous implausible (narrow Trump lead in ARKANSAS? lol) .
But there is enough evidence to suggest AZ should in tilt. Georgia lean, and NC and IA as well. And I’d at least tilt MI in Biden’s direction at this point.
You don’t have the split electoral votes either, ME-1 is safe rat. ME-2 maybe lean Trump, NE-1 and NE-3 safe Trump, NE-2 tilt Trump. Nebraska’s congressional lines are just absurd, you have the hyper-GOP 3rd and the damn marginal 2nd.