I don’t put much stock in these apocalyptic polls, most of which are registered voter polls and many of which are ridiculous implausible (narrow Trump lead in ARKANSAS? lol) .
But there is enough evidence to suggest AZ should in tilt. Georgia lean, and NC and IA as well. And I’d at least tilt MI in Biden’s direction at this point.
You don’t have the split electoral votes either, ME-1 is safe rat. ME-2 maybe lean Trump, NE-1 and NE-3 safe Trump, NE-2 tilt Trump. Nebraska’s congressional lines are just absurd, you have the hyper-GOP 3rd and the damn marginal 2nd.
Of course, the built-in bias of the media, pop culture/entertainment industry, big business, big labor, big Ed, Soros, foreign interests (Red China), the domestic terrorist groups (Auntie Fascist/Bolshevik Lunatic Marauders), is worth countless billions to the Demonrats.
True.
I have it in my model but I turned it off for this preview. The preview was based on the 2016 results with a +/- 5% swing for Monte Carlo analysis. That's where the probabilities came from that determined the state-by-state leanings.
I don’t put much stock in these apocalyptic polls, most of which are registered voter polls and many of which are ridiculous implausible (narrow Trump lead in ARKANSAS? lol) .
I already added the most recent polling data from realclearpolitics.com, and they are so tilted to Biden that they're not worth reporting. This is what happened in 2016, which is why the MSM and Nate Silver got it so wrong.
But there is enough evidence to suggest AZ should in tilt. Georgia lean, and NC and IA as well. And I’d at least tilt MI in Biden’s direction at this point.
That's also why I chose to look at the sensitivities using only the 2016 actuals at this point. Instead using polls, I could just use Freeper hunches for each state, but then the results would be hard to cite for credibility.
We'll see how this progresses as we get through the conventions.
-PJ
I generally agree with what you said, but that Selzer poll of Iowa scared the bejeezus out of me. Selzer is the best in the business when it comes to Iowa and Wisconsin polls, and if she says that Ernst is behind and Trump is basically tied among likely voters in Iowa, I can’t ignore that. The electoral landscape does not look good right now, and Trump needs to start moving it in his direction. He’s further behind right now than he was at this point in 2016, and voters don’t dislike Biden as much as they did Hillary. Hopefully the economy coming back will do a lot if the heavy lifting by itself, but I fear that it may not be enough. Trump needs to make a positive case for his reelection while simultaneously arguing against what Biden’s election would mean. And Senate and House candidates need to be more aggressive as well.