COVID-19 Update - 06/08/2020

My own workup | 06/08/2020 | DoughtyOne

[DoughtyOne]

PING LIST - Please contact me as needed...

COVID-19 Update # 82

As of 06/07/2020 23:15 PDST     United States CDC - Provisional Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Capture Nations Informaton
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Capture Counties Information
As of 00/00/2020 23:46 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Process JHU Data
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Document Core Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Capture Nations Information
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Capture States Information
As of 00/00/2020 00:00 PDST     WorldofMeters - Data Processing begins...
As of 00/00/2020 ??:?? PDST     Publish COVID-19 Update - 00/00/00

Thank you for stopping by to check out the COVID-19 Update.

Here you can find...

Section: 01     Commentary, Special Reports, COVID-19 Update Info, & System Notes
Section: 02     the United States Situation
Section: 03     the Global Community Situation Outside China
Section: 04     the Global Community Situation Including China with reservations
Section: 05     the Mortality Report
Section: 06     Miscellaneous Reports of Interest
Section: 07     the United States, Counties (alphabetical / case no descending)
Section: 08     the United States, States Ranking, Provisional Numbers, & Territories
Section: 09     the United States, Ranked with Other Nations
Section: 10     the End of this COVID-19 Update
Section: 11     Data Sources and a Link to My Own Spreadsheet
Section: 12     Linked Spreadsheet: Counties, States, Provisional, Territories, & Nations
Section: 13     Links to Other Resources

Section: 01

Commentary, Special Reports, and COVID-19 Update Information⁵
Interesting Tid-bits (hopefully)

Yesterday's Summary in a Nutshell

New Global Cases came in at 109,712 yesterday. Although it was a new record
for a Sunday, it was not an all-time reocrd, which now stands at 147,787 from
Friday 06/05.

New Cases in the United States dropped into a lower region at 18,904. That
was 3,729 Cases less than the day before and 22,819 less than the 41,723 the
day before that.

Globally Fatalities came in at 3,937 on Sunday, down from 4,001 on Saturday.

In the United States we had 373 Fatalities. That was the losest end of day
figure since March 29th, when the figure was 259. There were 702 Fatalities
on Saturday.

Declared Cases in the U. S. Passed Two Million Cases on Sunday

Sometime prior to 15:33 PDST the Seven millionth Global Case of COVID-19 was
identified. There are 3,233.757 Active Cases remaining at this time.

Global Fatalities Passes a Milestone

Sometime prior to 16:33 PDST the World lost it's 400,000th person to COVID-19
on Saturday. I know this topic is debatable. The number is out there, and I
don't want to simply ignore it.

Global Declared Cases Passed Seven Million Mark on Sunday

Sometime prior to 15:33 PDST the United States identified it's 2 millionth
COVID-19 Case. There are 1,133,272 Active Cases remaining at this time.

Large New Case Dump From Friday, Does Not Repeat

Again yesterday, the large dump of New Cases onto the rolls like what took
place on Friday in the United States, did not repeat.

Section: 02

The Following Addresses the Numbers Here in
the United Staetes of America

Here we go...

You can see the size of that idiotic blowout on Friday. Thankfully Sunday was
another day it didn't repeat.

Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Critical here, courtesy of amorphous

Here are more of our numbers...

The Active Cases continue to languish in the U. S., as it still remains below
the zenith number of 1,176,025 from 05/30. We had been eliminating Acitve
cases for a few days there. I hope that can return soon. I'd like to think
we've seen our largest Active Case level already.

Our Slice of the COVID-19 Pie

The growth of our slice of the pie has been dropping recently.

Here are the numbers I've been tracking, Globally Declared and Active Cases.

Our decline in the percent of the global pie returned to normal healthy
reductions on Saturday, and continued on Sunday. Looking back you can see
how we've really made progress here.

Active Cases in the United States / Chart

Unlike some of the other charts here, we should see a good rise and
fall at some point withone.

Note that this presents the one day and then 7 and 14 day averaging versions.

Remember, these are not new Declared Cases. These are remaing Active Cases.

With some wild numbers being reported on Friday, this Chart has been
disrupted a bit. It still appears we're on the back side of the curve.

Testing and New Case Figures
Requested by stocksthatgoup

Some folks have shown an interest in seeing the COVID-19 Test figures compared
to the New Cases being declared. The following Data addresses that.

The percentages of New Cases compared with Testing figures, moving down. Check
out that 3.449% single day figure yesterday. That was nice.

Here is a chart to reveal visually what the decline has looked like.

On the right there, you can see the lines weaving lower.

The U. S. Stats / w 10 Day Averaging / Fr: 03/17
Requested by: Texas Eagle

This data and chart presents things in a little different way. In the
chart it is easy to see the relationship of these numbers.

The Chart will use the data all the way back to 03/17, but the data displayed
here will only go back one month.

Here is the chart to match.

I like being able to follow the movement of these stats visully.

The lines are coming together here. That dynamic is much more pronounced
for the Global scene on the Chart addressing that lower down in the Update.

Section: 03

The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
without Mainland China

Here is the first set of Data for the Global Outside China
Territories

Yesterday's New Cases reported out as a new record for a Sunday.

Fata.lities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active Cases, and
Serious/Critical Cases - Globally, Excluding M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and
Serious/Critical here, courtesy of amorphous

Here we go...

Active Cases on the Global scene are going up at a pretty fast clip.

How is the Global Community Outside China Doing,
Without U. S. numbers?

Let's see...

Look at that middle number. There was some relief in the size of that number
today. It was a Sunday, and we'll take it.

See how out of character Friday's number wound up being? Compare our
blue columns over the last few days. Look at that ridiculous jump, then
back down.

Globally, not looking good. We've dropped back down under 20k. That's
great.

The Active Cases outside China Globally / Chart

As in the U. S. version of this, we should see a good rise and fall at
some point these two.

Note that these present the one day and then 7 and 14 day averaging versions.

Remember, these are not new declared Cases. These are remaing active cases.

You can see what one nation like France can do the the charts. I appreciate
them trying to be frank about their numbers, but there must be a little better
way to accomplish that. We saw the same type of thing in the U. S. when eight
states got creative with their numbers on Friday.

Note that with France, you can see their impact on the Chart blow twice.

Special Section on France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the U. K.
Case growth.

Let's Look at Some Numbers in Five Day Increments:

The United Kingdom, in a word, balistic...

Sweden and It's Neighbors, Who Has the Best Tactic Against COVID-19?

Sweden is doing its own thing with regard to isolating. I think most people
are aware of it by now.

Here are some numbers to help us look at this issue.

Sweden still remains a hot topic, and it's tragectory IS NOT looking good
on that Chart. In it's own group, it's not good at all. If you compare it
to some European Nations, it looks no worse.

Movers and Shakers...

I will present the top fifty nations with the most New Cases and New
Fatilities.

Here we go...

Brizil took it's turn to lead in both categories today.

Global osChina Stats / w 10 Day Averaging / Fr: 03/05
Requested by: Texas Eagle

This data and chart presents things in a little different way. In the
chart it is easy to see the relationship of these numbers.

The Chart will use the data all the way back to 03/05, but the data displayed
here will only go back one month.

Here is the chart to match.

I like being able to follow the movement of these stats visully.

I like seeing those trajectories intersect

Section: 04

The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
including Mainland China*

Mainland China's numbers are 0.002% of today's total global numbers.

A Look at Declared, Resolved, and Active Cases, Includes M/L China

End of day figures follow:

That percentage in the right column there, has slipped a bit. It's still
higher than it was a few weeks back.

Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active, and Serious/Critical
Cases Globally, Including M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and
Serious/Critical here, courtesy of amorphous

Not much to say here. Big numbers getting bigger!

Section: 05

the Mortality Report

Here is the data for four entities...

Here are the figures for the growing case totals for four entities.

Anyone paying attention is already aware of the issues surrounding these
numbers. I'm not going to touch base on them every day.

Here is the chart to go along with those figures.

Charts like this one only show growth. That's why I recently took the advice
of a FReeper and added in a new chart for the U. S. and Global outside China
regions.

Here are figures revealing the daily growth for those four entities.

That 373 figure above is amazing. It's the smallest number since 03/29.

Here are two charts to go with the above data.

fatalities are dropping off across the baord.

Here, let's look at data for the U. S. broken out by itself.

Well our Fatalities have fallen off again, and I particularly like it when
the growth goes sub 1.00%. I find I like it even better when it goes
sub 500.

It's pretty easy to spot the weekly cycles isn't it..

Section: 06

Population Saturation

Here are figures revealing how many people in each population base represent one case.
I'm also showing what percent of each population base is infected at this time.

We're not doing bad here. I do wish to see us improve our postion, but it
could be a lot worse.

Nations With Lots of Cases

At the end of the day yesterday, there were:

It's hard to belive there are that many nations with massive numbers.

Daily Case Report Evaluation

I'll be keeping tabs on the daily tallies for days of the week for a while. Folks have
noticed some patterns of larger and smaller data entry on certain days, and on Fridays
sometimes the numbers get noticeably larger because of it.

And we now know Thursdays have potential to break out also. Yikes!

IMO Let's check out the numbers and a chart.

Way too much activity lately...

Section: 07

The Top 200 Counties in the U. S., by Number of Cases

This little report lists 200 Counties in the United States in declining Case numbers.
There is also a listing that is alphabetical. This report list only the entities
and the number of Cases in the two different sorts.

It will also be available as a downloadable Excel file in Section 12.

Section: 08

States of the Union and the District of Columbia, Compared to Each Other

Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

If this area interests you, please use this LINK to the source, and review
the lengthy description and explanation of it's development process.

There are two reports. The presentation above comes from the second one,
and the detailed segmented information below it, may interest you.

These can now also be found under the states on the Alphabetical list. The
states and these entity's numbers should be combined to match that of the
U. S. figures each day.

Section: 09

The United States, Where it Ranks With Other Nations?

Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.

The U. S. will be highlighted red here so we can find it easily in the list.
There was 215 nations on this list last night now. I didn't want to post
seven lists with 215 nations on it, so I picked the top 50. Coincidentally,
one report category had the U. S. at 41st, so it wasn't showing up on the
list with the 31 top nations on it. That wasn't the reason why I extended the
list length, but it did work out well.

I work on the nations right next to the states on my spreadsheet. The
states with the District of Columbia come in at a total of 51 lines.
I decided to keep the international reports near that length, and 50
was good enough.

Here we go... for your review.

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

Yesterday we moved up from 31 to 30. A few weeks back we were stuck down
at 43.

Section: 10

Here is what it is all about. From January 20th to the present.

This concludes our look back at yesterday's data. Take care...

Court Sesy of: foldspace

Section: 11

Data for this Report Sourced From:

LINK   WorldoMeters

LINK   Johns Hopkins University
               The Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE)

LINK   United States Center for Disease Control - Provisional Numbers

Listed in the order of current utilization...

LINK   You are Invited to Review My COVID-19 Spreadsheet (XLSX)
               There is not an XLS version available for distribution at this time.

Section: 12

Other Features:

LINK   US Counties²⁰⁰, States & DC⁵¹, Territories & Other Entities¹¹, Nations²¹⁴,
                and the CDC Provisional Counts⁵³
                Five Excel Spreadsheet datasets you can sort for your own studies...

Section: 13

Links to other resources:
I cannot vouch for these sites. Please use your own judgement.

LINK   Adventist Health Coronavirus Resource Hub - Scroll down for useful info

LINK   Antibiotic Vitamin, the (Vitamin D)
               Good article on Vitamin D's likely role in prevention of infection. Thanks Blam.

LINK   CDC Data for Download - Scroll down - Excel required. Includes death stats.

LINK   CDC National Center for Health Services
               Provisional deaths as determined by review of vital documents. Much lower...

LINK   CDC Secondary Data and Statistics - Portal Entry / Look around

LINK   Coronavirus (COVID-19) Map

LINK   Coronavirus infection risk may be reduced by Vitamin D
               by Former CDC Chief Dr. Tom Frieden

LINK   Coronavirus Spread Quickly Around the World in Late 2019, Study Shows
               the University College London Genetics Institute

LINK   COVID-19 Deaths Broken Out by Thirds, 05/07/20 Map of US Counties
               Very revealing display of Concentrated Death Zones - thanks hoosiermama

LINK   COVID-19 First U.S. Case, Treatment, features Remdesivir
               New England Journal of Medicine article

LINK   Cytokine Storm, med Actemra, Physician near death saved

LINK   Diamond Princess Review at 634 Case Point of Eventual 712

LINK   Hydroxychloroquine Article: International Poll
               Daily Mail Reports, Most Effective Treatment According to 6,000 Physicians

LINK   Hydroxychloroquine Has about 90 Percent Chance of Helping COVID-19 Patients
               the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons, reports 91.6% of patients improved clinically

LINK   IHME - Institute for Health Matrix and Evaluation

LINK   National Institutes of Health - Cornavirus (COVID-19)

LINK   Nasal Irrigation is the Key, COVID-19 Related

LINK   New York City - interesting breakdown, borough, age, sex

LINK   On the Origin of CCP Virus, A Documentary Movie (turn up the sound)
               Epoch Times: I highly recommend this very well documented report.

LINK   R_t COVID-19
               Calculates and displays the R_t Factor for each state. Thanks FreedomPoster.

LINK   World Health Organization

[DoughtyOne]

                       

[buckalfa]

Good morning. As to Sweden:

http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3853243/posts

[Presbyterian Reporter]

Sweden Admits its strategy may have been a mistake and cost unneccessary lives.

6/8/2020, 5:16:22 AM · by Morpheus2009 · 43 replies

Marketplace.org ^ | June 3, 2020 | Victoria Craig

Sweden captured attention for its relaxed approach to containing the spread of COVID-19 this year. Social distancing was encouraged, but shops and restaurants stayed open, those younger than 16 continued to go to school and borders stayed open to European visitors. That helped the economy continue to grow in the first quarter, unlike many other nations. But, with some data showing Sweden had the highest per capita death rate in the world last week, the architect of the country’s strategy says it might have been a mistake. Sweden’s state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell said there is “potential for improvement” in the...

[proud2beconservativeinNJ]

Good Morning. TY for more information.

Are you planning your Covid retirement?

[Texas Eagle]

Almost there. Recoveries is about to overtake active cases.

The number of recoveries is going up by about 90,000 a day while the number of active cases is going up by only about 20,000 a day. Pretty soon, the number of active cases will be going down.

[Texas Eagle]

Whoa. The number of active cases in the US started going down as of May 31st. Isn’t that right about when the riots started?

[exDemMom]

As you know, I watch the numbers and do a separate set of analyses from what you do.

Some of the indicators look a bit worrisome. As countries relax social distancing mandates, case growth may be holding steady or even increasing. This is a notable difference from the steady decrease we have seen in case growth following the implementation of social distancing guidelines.

I have already determined that the number of cases now is at 1% of where cases would have been without the quarantines. But that is not the full picture. What I need to do now is analyze current case growth so that I can see if it is, indeed, starting to increase as social distancing guidelines are relaxed.

One thing that came out as a result of the Floyd George riots is that George had Covid-19 nucleic acid present in nasal swabs at autopsy. Taking nasal swabs of people may be a way to determine if they have, in fact, had a case of Covid-19 within the last 2-3 months that was somehow overlooked. I do not know how long such nucleic acids would persist after the infection is cleared. It would certainly be a more accurate way of determining past Covid-19 infection than antibody testing. The antibody tests simply are not accurate enough to distinguish between various coronavirus antibodies.

I appreciate the inclusion of testing data in your daily data post. This is important because of the conspiratorial belief that somehow hundreds of millions of people simultaneously caught Covid-19 and we now have herd immunity (therefore there was no need to quarantine). The testing shows that a wide enough net has been cast to make the chance of missing a case very low. The higher the percentage of negative tests, the lower the chance of missing a case. The testing also shows that hundreds of millions of people did not, in fact, suddenly and simultaneously come down with Covid-19 back in January; as the Floyd George autopsy demonstrated, many of them might still have detectable virus nucleic acid weeks after infection.

Anyway, once again, thank you so much for posting this information.

[Presbyterian Reporter]

The corona virus pandemic crisis that the Democrats did not want to waste was replaced with the newly manufactured Democrat rioting crisis to deflect attention from Biden’s “You ain’t black if..” gaffe on May 22.

21 MAY 2020: President Trump has a roundtable with key black leaders and other black community activists in Michigan
22 MAY 2020: Joe Biden says “You ain’t black if..”
25 MAY 2020: George Floyd died during arrest
26 MAY 2020: Protest starts, leading to rioting and looting

[MayflowerMadam]

“The number of active cases in the US started going down as of May 31st. Isn’t that right about when the riots started?”

Are you implying what I think you’re implying? Could it possibly be that several crises are in a queue so the next one will kick in as soon as the current one turns out to be a scam?

I think we’re in a loop and never will experience peace again, thanks to the MSM and left.

[Texas Eagle]

The timing is interesting, isn’t it? How long was it between Nanzi and Chuckie’s impeachment implosion and the covid-19 “outbreak”?

[MayflowerMadam]

“How long was it between Nanzi and Chuckie’s impeachment implosion and the covid-19 ‘outbreak’?”

I believe the two crises overlapped by approximately a week. Just as planned. WuFlu was next in queue.

[Presbyterian Reporter]

With 105 deaths per million Germany stands out among the major European countries as having the lowest death rate by a large margin. Many of the other major European countries have death rates per million that are 4 to 8 times greater.

Germany should be the model country that everybody is studying in minute detail.

The lessons learned by studying Germany could be the game plan when the next China virus is unleashed.

Given the track record of deadly viruses emanating from Asia over the past 50 years, a new virus pandemic is not a matter of if, but when.

How did Germany accomplish it?
Does Germany have better doctors?
Does Germany have better medical technology?
Does Germany have better health bureaucrats?

[Presbyterian Reporter]

“”The timing is interesting, isn’t it? How long was it between Nanzi and Chuckie’s impeachment implosion and the covid-19 “outbreak”?””

---

How long was it between the Mueller Testimony that debunked the Russia Hoax and the Ukraine phone call that became the basis for the Trump Impeachment?

Yes, it was about 24 hours. Of course, it took a couple of weeks for the Democrats to work with the Ukraine Phone Call Whistleblower to get their latest hoax through the appropriate channels.

[Presbyterian Reporter]

“”The timing is interesting, isn’t it? How long was it between....”””

---

...Trump’s election and the unmasking of General Flynn by the Obama operatives. A couple of weeks.

What we do not know as of yet is how many others on the Trump Team were unmasked prior to his inauguration on January 20, 2017.

Nothing happens by chance in Washington DC.

It was five years ago on June 15th that Trump came down the escalator and announced he was running for President.

In these past five years the Democrats have had a continual game plan to take Trump down.

[Texas Eagle]

It’s been 5 years already???

[gas_dr]

Perhaps all you should do is watch the numbers as you clearly do NOT belong at the grown up table. The first question that you always avoid is what are your credentials. I believe you have indicated in the past you are a lab tech. Not that there is anything wrong with that, but your air of authority is hardly earned.

But lets so some simple math:

1. “I HAVE ALREADY DETERMINED THAT THE NUMBER OF CASES ARE 1% OF WHERE THEY WOULD HAVE BEEN WITHOUT QUARANTINES”

PLEASE include your methodology. Here are the FACTS. there are approximately 7M cases WORLD WIDE, and 2M Cases un the United States. USING YOUR NUMBERS, you are projecting that there should be 200M cases in the United States. That would be 30x the number WORLDWIDE. Your determination is completely faulty.

2. “IT WOULD CERTAINLY BE A MORE ACCURATE WAY OF DETERMINING COVID INFECTION THAN ANTIBODIES”

IgG antibodies are a part of the immune system for the lifetime of a patient. While the serial dilution may decrease, there is NO REASON for you to BASE this ridiculous argument that flies in the face of immunology accepted theory for over 100 years.

And your Sherlock Homes like analysis or whether there would be virus in January as a first wave is a circular argument. You obviously have no appreciation for the scientific method, and yet you really think you can proffer an opinion. Anyone I suppose can proffer opinion, however, there is a clear lack of understanding of basic science and mathematics in yours.

Please, if you choose to answer, address your methodology and awful mathematics in the context of the actual data. But truly, you do not have to answer because I have serious reservation as to your comprehension of the topic.

[Cedar]

About Germany’s success, remember I posted this article to you back in April. It describes exactly how Germany did it:

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/04/it-was-the-saltshaker-how-germany-meticulously-traced-its-coronavirus-outbreak/

[exDemMom]

Perhaps all you should do is watch the numbers as you clearly do NOT belong at the grown up table. The first question that you always avoid is what are your credentials. I believe you have indicated in the past you are a lab tech. Not that there is anything wrong with that, but your air of authority is hardly earned.

I have never avoided the question of my credentials. PhD scientist, with considerable experience in various aspects of infectious disease and toxicology research, public health, etc. I worked in pandemic response during the 2015 Ebola outbreak in Western Africa and I was head of a research department. Also, FYI, the majority of my lab techs had Masters degrees, but nice try to disparage my credentials by calling me a lab tech.

PLEASE include your methodology. Here are the FACTS. there are approximately 7M cases WORLD WIDE, and 2M Cases un the United States. USING YOUR NUMBERS, you are projecting that there should be 200M cases in the United States. That would be 30x the number WORLDWIDE. Your determination is completely faulty.

I have posted my graphs in previous Covid-19 threads. The methodology is simple enough: using the early case numbers and an R0 value of 2.5, I determined that each round of infection was occurring every 9 days. So, with each infected person infecting 2.5 other people every 9 days, it was a simple matter to determine how many people would be infected at any given point in time. I'm sure, if you have any grasp of mathematics, you can generate your own projections of how many people would be infected without any measures to control virus spread. The projections and actual case data matched very well up until April 11, at which point cases started falling below the projections. Given that control measures were implemented in the last two weeks of March, and that the incubation period of Covid-19 is from 2 to 14 days, it is clear that cases were dropping because of the control measures. The difference between uncontrolled growth and the actual growth with control measures in place has only continued to increase.

IgG antibodies are a part of the immune system for the lifetime of a patient. While the serial dilution may decrease, there is NO REASON for you to BASE this ridiculous argument that flies in the face of immunology accepted theory for over 100 years.

Obviously, you have no practical experience working with antibodies and are completely unaware of their cross-reactivity with any protein that is similar to the immune inducing antigen. A lot of people get colds, and many of those colds are caused by coronaviruses. All an antibody test can reliably show is that a person has had a recent coronavirus infection, but it can't tell which coronavirus it was.

Also, the statement that IgG antibodies are part of the immune system of the patient is only true if you are considering the antibodies as a class, but the durability of IgG responses to specific pathogens is variable. If immune responses lasted forever, booster vaccinations would not be a thing.

And your Sherlock Homes like analysis or whether there would be virus in January as a first wave is a circular argument. You obviously have no appreciation for the scientific method, and yet you really think you can proffer an opinion.

I'm pretty sure I'm not the one showing no appreciation for the scientific method here. I honestly do not think you showed any capability of following my scientific reasoning. Most people cannot, in fact, follow scientific reasoning.

There is a widespread belief that Covid-19 was already circulating widely back in December/January, even though at that time, there were few cases which were only in China. A component of this belief is that somehow, Covid-19 is causing absolutely no symptoms in hundreds of millions of people, while only a small minority show symptoms. There are a host of reasons why this belief is untrue and completely unscientific; I was addressing only the role of testing in dispelling this belief. It appears that you are one of the people who has embraced this belief. If the scientific knowledge I apply here contradicts the belief, the problem is not me or the scientific method--the problem is the belief.

Please, if you choose to answer, address your methodology and awful mathematics in the context of the actual data. But truly, you do not have to answer because I have serious reservation as to your comprehension of the topic.

Please share, what is your educational background? What is your scientific specialty? Have you ever worked in any research capacity? Written a thesis or dissertation? Written scientific papers?

I keep a spreadsheet of the Covid-19 case data, where I do a number of analyses that I have not decided to share here, unless I see something that I think might be interesting to those who read the Covid-19 update thread. Have you been keeping track of case data? Have you been reading the medical literature? Have you done any analysis?

Just a little observation here--when I see someone resorting to all caps, I automatically assume that they do not have facts on their side.

[gas_dr]

What is your Ph.D. in. Lots of worthless Ph.Ds out there. I worked pandemic responses as well for clinical sides and planned disaster responses for major cities and acute inpatient settings. So pound sand on that.

In all your Ph.D. glory you picked an RO that has been demonstrated to be incorrect. As the science has changed all you have done is stuck to dogma. You pulled typical BS when you did not answer the question. You have postulated 200M cases in the US when there are 7M case world wide. You clearly had NO IDEA what you are talking about

Combine this with real scientific data that hypothesize that lock downs and mitigation make no difference — and you are stuck with that you are just plain wrong.

As for your tenuous grasp on antibodies — there is CLEAR evidence as published by peer reviewed sources that previous corona virus infection confers cross immunity because they are in the same class. You have also not accounted for the two papers that demonstrate attenuation of the virus to less virulent and less severe

I suppose that when some one BOLDS their text it is the same as capital letters. You have, pure and simple, been wrong since the get go. I originally prognosticated nothing more than a bad flue season. And your theory is laughable about it not spreading in the US prior to January when there is probe data of cases on the West coast at the first of January.

This is your problem, you dont know a thing about clinical science. There have been numerous ARDS cases in January - April that were influenza negative and retrospectively were CoVID by clinical scenario (although I also insist that we should not include them in a confirmed data set). The fact of the matter is there are reports in the Deep South of entire schools being out in December for horrendous GI and respiratory syndromes. Sound familiar? And yet the kids did FINE.

There is little question in anyone’s mind that this has been circulating probably since late December or early January here in the US with no overwhelming of the system.

Combine this with OVERTESTING and the recent WHO statement that asymptomatic spread does NOT exist, and you end up with a big goose egg.

However, I come back to your calculations and work, and you are unwilling to accept this. You said according to your work, we have 1% of the cases that we should have, leading to 200M cases in your estimation. You are not only wrong, you are laughably wrong. You are off by a factor of at least 100, if not more, and the world data where there was not great mitigation simply does not support your hair brained hypothesis.

What is your Ph.D in? What is the title of your dissertation. And for the love of all that is good, I would get your money back.