As you know, I watch the numbers and do a separate set of analyses from what you do.
Some of the indicators look a bit worrisome. As countries relax social distancing mandates, case growth may be holding steady or even increasing. This is a notable difference from the steady decrease we have seen in case growth following the implementation of social distancing guidelines.
I have already determined that the number of cases now is at 1% of where cases would have been without the quarantines. But that is not the full picture. What I need to do now is analyze current case growth so that I can see if it is, indeed, starting to increase as social distancing guidelines are relaxed.
One thing that came out as a result of the Floyd George riots is that George had Covid-19 nucleic acid present in nasal swabs at autopsy. Taking nasal swabs of people may be a way to determine if they have, in fact, had a case of Covid-19 within the last 2-3 months that was somehow overlooked. I do not know how long such nucleic acids would persist after the infection is cleared. It would certainly be a more accurate way of determining past Covid-19 infection than antibody testing. The antibody tests simply are not accurate enough to distinguish between various coronavirus antibodies.
I appreciate the inclusion of testing data in your daily data post. This is important because of the conspiratorial belief that somehow hundreds of millions of people simultaneously caught Covid-19 and we now have herd immunity (therefore there was no need to quarantine). The testing shows that a wide enough net has been cast to make the chance of missing a case very low. The higher the percentage of negative tests, the lower the chance of missing a case. The testing also shows that hundreds of millions of people did not, in fact, suddenly and simultaneously come down with Covid-19 back in January; as the Floyd George autopsy demonstrated, many of them might still have detectable virus nucleic acid weeks after infection.
Anyway, once again, thank you so much for posting this information.
Perhaps all you should do is watch the numbers as you clearly do NOT belong at the grown up table. The first question that you always avoid is what are your credentials. I believe you have indicated in the past you are a lab tech. Not that there is anything wrong with that, but your air of authority is hardly earned.
But lets so some simple math:
1. “I HAVE ALREADY DETERMINED THAT THE NUMBER OF CASES ARE 1% OF WHERE THEY WOULD HAVE BEEN WITHOUT QUARANTINES”
PLEASE include your methodology. Here are the FACTS. there are approximately 7M cases WORLD WIDE, and 2M Cases un the United States. USING YOUR NUMBERS, you are projecting that there should be 200M cases in the United States. That would be 30x the number WORLDWIDE. Your determination is completely faulty.
2. “IT WOULD CERTAINLY BE A MORE ACCURATE WAY OF DETERMINING COVID INFECTION THAN ANTIBODIES”
IgG antibodies are a part of the immune system for the lifetime of a patient. While the serial dilution may decrease, there is NO REASON for you to BASE this ridiculous argument that flies in the face of immunology accepted theory for over 100 years.
And your Sherlock Homes like analysis or whether there would be virus in January as a first wave is a circular argument. You obviously have no appreciation for the scientific method, and yet you really think you can proffer an opinion. Anyone I suppose can proffer opinion, however, there is a clear lack of understanding of basic science and mathematics in yours.
Please, if you choose to answer, address your methodology and awful mathematics in the context of the actual data. But truly, you do not have to answer because I have serious reservation as to your comprehension of the topic.