A Warning From Sweden’s Coronavirus Response

Forbes ^ | June 4, 2020 | William A. Haseltine

[DoodleBob]

Sweden now has among the highest per capita death rates from Covid-19 in the world. Why?

The answer is simple. Sweden was lax in its implementation of protective measures in the face of the outbreak, refusing to implement broad stay at home orders for residents, or to enforce recommendations to wear masks or social distancing measures. Other than the government decision to shut down universities and high schools, compliance to public health recommendations was entirely voluntary.

Early on, my Swedish friends seemed proud of their exceptionalism. They sent many of their children to school without many of the protections that are both in place and under consideration in many other countries. Outside the country, many voiced their praise of Sweden’s “common sense” approach, which they wagered would be less economically destructive than stricter measures and would not lead to any greater number of deaths.

They were wrong. Even the chief architect of the Swedish anti-coronavirus plan is able to admit it. In an interview translated by Reuters, Sweden’s chief epidemiologist told Swedish radio that the country clearly could have done better in fighting the virus and that there was “quite obviously a potential for improvement in what we have done.” In particular, he said Sweden should have started testing earlier and more extensively and they should have done more to protect older adults in Sweden’s long term care centers, where more than half of all Sweden’s coronavirus-deaths have occurred.

[DoodleBob]

This is also an important part of this saga:

For all the loss Swedes have endured, there has been no associated economic gain, which is what many claimed was the saving grace of the Swedish approach. According to the European Commission, Sweden’s economic forecast of a 6% reduction in GDP for 2020 is on par with its neighbors, Norway and Denmark who implemented much stricter lockdown measures.

A full and proper examination of the US and SE cumulative Coronavirus fatality (case numbers are too susceptible to testing differences; funny business can also arise with fatalities but dead is dead) times series would help. Apologies for any repetition for those who've seen this previously.

Below find that data - I also included data for other select countries and most states: I standardized each Country's cumulative COVID-19 fatality count per GitHub by its population, then multiply the resulting quotient by the US' population of 329MM to put everyone on a common/US scale. I then index each Country's time-series to Day 1, where their size-adjusted fatality count is right before it breaches 1,000 people. This corrects for what I call the "Golf Problem" where broadcasts of the Masters etc have to show not only each golfer's score, but which hole they're at. I also list the Day 1 date and the population for reference, i.e., Sweden has finished the 74th hole while the US is still on the 72nd hole, but we can compare their 'scores' as of the 72nd hole.

Country	Sweden	United States
Day 1=Date prior to 1,000-size-adj Fatalities	3/23/20	3/25/20
Population	10,333,456	329,556,365	Sweden - US	% excess SE vs US
Day 74	145,492	-	-	-
Day 73	144,854	-	-	-
Day 72	142,494	108,211	34,283	31.7%
Day 71	140,421	107,175	33,246	31.0%
Day 70	140,166	106,180	33,986	32.0%
Day 69	140,166	105,149	35,017	33.3%
Day 68	138,731	104,381	34,350	32.9%
Day 67	136,052	103,776	32,276	31.1%
Day 66	134,585	102,809	31,776	30.9%
Day 65	131,555	101,616	29,939	29.5%
Day 64	128,494	100,418	28,076	28.0%
Day 63	127,505	98,913	28,592	28.9%
Day 62	127,314	98,220	29,094	29.6%
Day 61	125,177	97,720	27,457	28.1%
Day 60	123,455	97,087	26,368	27.2%
Day 59	122,179	95,979	26,200	27.3%
Day 58	119,372	94,702	24,670	26.1%
Day 57	117,937	93,439	24,498	26.2%
Day 56	117,331	91,921	25,410	27.6%
Day 55	117,172	90,347	26,825	29.7%
Day 54	116,279	89,562	26,717	29.8%
Day 53	112,547	88,754	23,793	26.8%
Day 52	110,347	87,530	22,817	26.1%
Day 51	105,659	85,898	19,761	23.0%
Day 50	103,841	84,119	19,722	23.4%
Day 49	102,852	82,376	20,476	24.9%
Day 48	102,693	80,682	22,011	27.3%
Day 47	101,258	79,526	21,732	27.3%
Day 46	96,952	78,795	18,157	23.0%
Day 45	93,795	77,180	16,615	21.5%
Day 44	91,020	75,662	15,358	20.3%
Day 43	88,309	73,431	14,878	20.3%
Day 42	85,439	71,064	14,375	20.2%
Day 41	85,120	68,922	16,198	23.5%
Day 40	84,610	67,682	16,928	25.0%
Day 39	82,473	66,369	16,104	24.3%
Day 38	78,519	64,943	13,576	20.9%
Day 37	75,106	62,996	12,110	19.2%
Day 36	72,523	60,967	11,556	19.0%
Day 35	69,971	58,355	11,616	19.9%
Day 34	69,908	56,259	13,649	24.3%
Day 33	68,632	54,881	13,751	25.1%
Day 32	64,454	53,755	10,699	19.9%
Day 31	61,775	51,949	9,826	18.9%
Day 30	56,290	49,954	6,336	12.7%
Day 29	50,390	46,622	3,768	8.1%
Day 28	49,114	44,444	4,670	10.5%
Day 27	48,189	42,094	6,095	14.5%
Day 26	44,649	40,661	3,988	9.8%
Day 25	42,512	38,664	3,848	10.0%
Day 24	38,366	36,773	1,593	4.3%
Day 23	32,945	32,916	29	0.1%
Day 22	29,309	28,325	984	3.5%
Day 21	28,671	25,831	2,840	11.0%
Day 20	28,288	23,528	4,760	20.2%
Day 19	27,746	22,019	5,727	26.0%
Day 18	25,290	20,462	4,828	23.6%
Day 17	21,910	18,586	3,324	17.9%
Day 16	18,848	16,478	2,370	14.4%
Day 15	15,213	14,695	518	3.5%
Day 14	12,789	12,722	67	0.5%
Day 13	11,896	10,783	1,113	10.3%
Day 12	11,417	9,619	1,798	18.7%
Day 11	9,823	8,407	1,416	16.8%
Day 10	7,622	7,087	535	7.6%
Day 9	5,741	5,926	(185)	-3.1%
Day 8	4,656	4,757	(101)	-2.1%
Day 7	3,508	3,873	(365)	-9.4%
Day 6	3,349	2,978	371	12.4%
Day 5	3,349	2,467	882	35.7%
Day 4	2,456	2,026	430	21.2%
Day 3	1,977	1,581	396	25.1%
Day 2	1,148	1,209	(61)	-5.0%
Day 1	797	942	(145)	-15.4%

In short, Sweden's cumulative size-adjusted fatality total has consistently exceeded the US' total by 20%+ since around Day 32 (April 24 for the US, April 26th for Sweden). Thus, they haven't exactly been 'successful' in terms of virus fatalities vs the US. However, they're not as bad as Belgium, Italy, France, Spain, and the UK though they have risen above France, Ireland and the Netherlands.

SE's size- and time-adjusted fatalities are generally lower than all the States that are higher than the US total. However, this is an apples-to-oranges comparison, e.g., State to Nation. In truth, you need to adjust Stockholm out of SE's total when doing a State comparison to be apples-to-apples; for those following at home, Stockholm's fatality count of 2,136 on June 5 across 972,647 citizens on a size-adjusted basis with the US is 723,729 fatalities which is higher than anything in this post; non-Stockholm SE size-adjusted fatalities would be 85,410, which is not apples-to-apples comparable to the US but is there for reference.

Furthermore, Sweden has NOT been a conservative dream in terms of OVERALL approach. Yes, we like the open businesses and open schools. But when you read things like

"We are putting decisions in the hands of those who know better"

it's a sober reminder that all that good stuff comes with Greta Thunberg-like environmentalis that just happily shut down its last coal-fired power plant two years ahead of schedule.

Yes, their businesses stayed open but they're not immune to recession, as noted above.

What seems to be missed on people, is Sweden got to this happy place because they TRUST their government to tell them the right thing to do. Their govt made these decisions based on "science." This is the same country in which their "science" that just happily shut its last coal-fired power plant.

And when their "science" promotes contact tracing, or if in the fall it calls for a shutdown, they'll be all-in.

It may be great to take Sweden's approach - and for the record lest I be confused as a 'no freedom till vaccine' nutjob, I wish the US had followed SE's more reasonable, business-friendly and age-based approach to school closures - but SE's positives cannot be disentangled from their faith in authority.

Country	Date of Day 1=day priot to hitting 1,000+ population-adjusted deaths	Population	Day 64	Day 65	Day 66	Day 67	Day 68	Day 69	Day 70	Day 71	Day 72	Day 73
San Marino	3/3/20	33,574	402,449	402,449	402,449	402,449	402,449	402,449	402,449	402,449	402,449	402,449
Belgium	3/19/20	11,524,454	262,685	263,429	264,144	265,373	266,288	266,918	267,775	268,462	269,663	270,321
Andorra	3/21/20	77,543	216,749	216,749	216,749	216,749	216,749	216,749	216,749	216,749	216,749	216,749
Spain	3/13/20	47,100,396	192,128	192,855	192,855	193,877	194,360	195,129	195,493	200,307	200,657	201,175
United Kingdom	3/20/20	66,435,550	180,936	182,335	182,920	183,520	184,185	186,229	188,099	189,706	190,773	191,333
Italy	3/5/20	60,243,406	163,883	165,212	166,273	167,176	168,155	169,096	170,163	171,596	172,920	173,757
Sweden	3/23/20	10,333,456	128,494	131,555	134,585	136,052	138,731	140,166	140,166	140,421	142,494	144,854
France	3/18/20	67,076,000	138,232	138,640	138,640	138,640	139,387	139,829	140,188	140,512	140,836	141,092
Ireland	3/25/20	4,921,500	109,216	109,752	110,153	110,555	110,622	110,488	111,024	111,091	111,426	-
Netherlands	3/17/20	17,451,031	108,285	108,908	109,418	109,663	110,097	110,305	110,456	110,947	111,231	111,835
United States	3/25/20	329,556,365	100,418	101,616	102,809	103,776	104,381	105,149	106,180	107,175	108,211	-
Switzerland	3/16/20	8,586,550	72,386	72,578	72,616	72,846	73,038	73,115	73,153	73,422	73,499	73,575
Macedonia	3/24/20	679,600	56,252	57,706	58,676	61,101	63,525	64,495	67,890	68,375	70,314	71,284
Luxembourg	3/17/20	613,894	58,514	58,514	58,514	58,514	58,514	59,051	59,051	59,051	59,051	59,051
Portugal	3/23/20	10,276,617	42,651	43,036	43,485	43,902	44,351	44,768	45,217	45,666	46,050	46,403
Germany	3/25/20	83,149,300	33,404	33,570	33,705	33,808	33,848	33,907	33,939	34,093	34,224	-
Denmark	3/22/20	5,822,763	31,808	31,865	31,865	31,978	32,148	32,148	32,317	32,487	32,600	32,827
Iran	3/9/20	83,331,064	26,438	26,628	26,825	27,106	27,296	27,434	27,636	27,909	28,154	28,407
Austria	3/23/20	8,902,600	23,729	23,803	23,877	24,728	24,728	24,728	24,728	24,728	24,765	24,802
Iceland	3/23/20	364,260	9,047	9,047	9,047	9,047	9,047	9,047	9,047	9,047	9,047	9,047
Canada	4/1/20	37,979,093	65,765	66,963	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Israel	4/1/20	9,180,000	10,447	10,447	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Municipality	Date of Day 1 = day prior to breaching size-adj 1,000 COVID19 fatalities	Population	Day 64	Day 65	Day 66	Day 67	Day 68	Day 69	Day 70	Day 71	Day 72	Day 73
New York	3/19/20	19,795,791	477,176	479,490	481,121	483,552	485,084	486,798	488,430	490,078	491,693	492,975
New Jersey	3/23/20	8,958,013	409,977	411,706	417,151	419,431	424,214	428,003	430,358	431,204	433,007	437,053
Connecticut	3/23/20	3,590,886	343,425	345,903	349,023	351,134	354,989	359,027	361,964	364,350	364,533	366,094
Massachusetts	3/25/20	6,794,422	317,555	322,066	325,850	328,275	332,058	341,225	343,651	346,900	349,277	-
Rhode Island	3/29/20	1,056,298	224,010	224,634	228,378	231,498	235,866	-	-	-	-	-
District of Columbia	3/24/20	672,228	215,708	218,159	222,081	225,513	226,493	228,454	229,435	230,415	231,886	232,866
Louisiana	3/20/20	4,670,724	188,319	189,307	189,801	189,801	190,577	192,059	193,329	195,163	196,504	196,927
Michigan	3/24/20	9,922,576	174,899	177,157	178,419	179,548	181,441	182,371	183,501	184,729	184,995	185,826
Pennsylvania	3/28/20	12,802,503	142,531	142,994	143,483	145,955	147,808	150,125	-	-	-	-
Maryland	3/31/20	6,006,401	142,491	144,905	146,387	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Illinois	3/27/20	12,859,995	136,025	137,563	139,049	139,869	142,663	144,046	146,993	-	-	-
Delaware	3/27/20	945,934	124,028	125,770	127,512	128,208	129,950	130,647	134,480	-	-	-
Indiana	3/25/20	6,619,680	101,062	102,954	105,045	105,792	106,240	106,638	109,376	109,874	111,069	-
United States	3/25/20	329,556,365	100,418	101,616	102,809	103,776	104,381	105,149	106,180	107,175	108,211	-
Colorado	3/24/20	5,456,574	81,656	84,132	85,883	86,789	87,152	87,273	88,058	89,024	90,232	91,319
Mississippi	3/27/20	2,992,333	78,195	79,627	80,838	81,389	84,472	86,124	87,446	-	-	-
New Hampshire	4/1/20	1,330,608	65,633	67,615	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Minnesota	3/31/20	5,489,594	64,956	65,856	67,597	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Ohio	3/29/20	11,614,373	61,148	62,595	64,070	65,262	66,397	-	-	-	-	-
Iowa	4/1/20	3,123,899	60,554	61,504	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
New Mexico	4/1/20	2,085,109	59,270	60,534	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Georgia	3/23/20	10,214,860	58,718	60,234	61,428	62,654	63,009	63,654	65,138	66,364	66,783	68,493
Virginia	3/29/20	8,382,993	54,055	54,723	55,313	56,138	56,807	-	-	-	-	-
Nevada	3/24/20	2,890,845	45,144	45,828	46,740	47,310	47,538	47,766	47,880	47,880	49,134	49,020
Arizona	3/30/20	6,828,065	44,307	45,514	47,444	48,217	-	-	-	-	-	-
Alabama	3/31/20	4,858,979	44,289	44,289	44,289	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Washington	3/8/20	7,170,351	43,157	43,985	44,674	44,904	45,547	46,329	46,650	46,696	46,880	47,891
Missouri	4/1/20	6,083,672	42,849	43,066	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Florida	3/29/20	20,271,272	39,830	39,977	41,115	41,716	42,383	-	-	-	-	-
California	3/27/20	39,144,818	34,888	35,477	35,713	36,092	36,706	36,824	37,414	-	-	-
Wisconsin	3/29/20	5,771,337	33,919	34,090	34,832	35,175	35,746	-	-	-	-	-
Kentucky	3/30/20	4,425,092	33,141	33,588	33,514	34,109	-	-	-	-	-	-
South Carolina	3/27/20	4,896,146	32,510	32,780	33,251	33,655	33,722	33,722	33,722	-	-	-
Nebraska	4/1/20	1,896,190	29,546	32,500	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Vermont	3/18/20	626,042	28,426	28,426	28,426	28,426	28,426	28,426	28,426	28,426	28,953	28,953
North Dakota	3/29/20	756,927	27,865	27,865	29,606	28,736	28,736	-	-	-	-	-
Oklahoma	3/27/20	3,911,338	27,720	28,142	28,142	28,142	28,563	28,732	28,984	-	-	-
Kansas	3/29/20	2,911,641	23,882	24,561	25,693	25,580	25,693	-	-	-	-	-
Maine	3/30/20	1,329,328	22,064	23,304	23,552	23,552	-	-	-	-	-	-
Texas	4/2/20	27,469,114	21,307	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Tennessee	3/31/20	6,600,299	18,874	19,373	20,022	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Idaho	3/28/20	1,654,930	16,329	16,329	16,528	16,528	16,528	16,528	-	-	-	-
Arkansas	3/31/20	2,978,204	15,049	15,713	16,709	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Puerto Rico	4/1/20	3,680,058	12,537	12,537	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Oregon	3/27/20	4,028,977	12,351	12,515	12,515	12,597	12,842	13,006	13,006	-	-	-
Montana	3/29/20	1,032,949	5,424	5,424	5,424	5,424	5,424	-	-	-	-	-

[Phillyred]

Don’t care

[willk]

I would not believe anything from Forbes anymore than CNN or Teen Vogue.

[SpaceBar]

The author of this article sounds like he’s glad that the swedes got what they deserved by not listening to the wise government and their shutdown hysteria. Just fyi, he is making a causal connection that has yet to be proved. Swedes might be suceptible due to genetic factors, or have a particularly gentrified population, or any of a number of other factors. He just sounds pissed off and vindicated that those merry swedes photographed out for a drink while we were hunkering down around a candle are now dead. That’s the tone I’m hearing.

[dfwgator]

Just which “Swedes” are getting this?

Real Swedes, or the imports?

[cherry]

me neither....open up OUR country....people who are afraid have the CHOICE to stay home under their bed....and I think they should....

[lastchance]

Not buying it for a second. Delaying death rate by draconian measures is not the same as avoiding them. Plus doing so means natural immunity has no chance of developing.

[MAGAthon]

Forbes joins in the obsession to prove full lockdowns are good.

3 Jun: BBC: Coronavirus: Sweden’s Tegnell admits too many died
However, he was unclear what Sweden should have done differently and at a press conference later on Wednesday later he underlined that “we basically still think that is the right strategy for Sweden”...
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52903717

they never mention Belgium (home of the European Union)

Belgium: 835.93 deaths per million
Sweden: 447.99 deaths per million

[Manuel OKelley]

What do you mean, we are open

Well, at least Texas is . There might be guidelines but from what I see it’s just damn near business as usual

[E. Pluribus Unum]

Your hypochondria is not grounds for suspending my Constitutional rights.

Try it again and see what happens.

[Jan_Sobieski]

What about ages? The average age of Covid deaths around the globe is 80+. The article acts like sending kids to school was a bad thing when 0 children died

[Balding_Eagle]

For all the loss Swedes have endured, there has been no associated economic gain, which is what many claimed was the saving grace of the Swedish approach. According to the European Commission, Sweden’s economic forecast of a 6% reduction in GDP for 2020 is on par with its neighbors, Norway and Denmark who implemented much stricter lockdown measures.

Loosely translated: Shutting down most of the businesses in a country doesn't affect the bottom line.

The takeaway; don't bother opening back up, it won't help anyone economically anyway.

[TStro]

I’ve been carrying on the same way I always did, going to stores and restaurants. When our breakfast restaurant (taqueria) was only open to carry out, my friends and I took chairs and sat by the front door outside.
The only confirmed case within 30 miles of me was a friend’s daughter’s friend, who stayed with them at the time. 8 people in constant contact with her, no one came down with symptoms.
I’d bet some of the family did have it but showed no symptoms. We’ve been had.

[Gene Eric]

Of course it’s the highest per capita — the effects of herd

Ignore the indignation. The data analysis is misleading.

[KarlInOhio]

The general assumption at the beginning was that everyone was going to get the disease, any vaccination was going to be years away, and the only thing you could do was to keep the hospitals from being overwhelmed so you didn't have people dying in the hallways there who could have been saved with full treatment.

The only question was how much you could flatten the curve below the hospital limit. We did that spectacularly, but flattening the doesn't reduce the total number of infections unless you can entirely break the spread and no one hoped to do that or delay infections long enough until an effective treatment was found.

If the initial assumptions were right, and Sweden's hospitals haven't been overwhelmed, they chose correctly - get the inevitable done with quickly. Their infections and deaths should drop to near zero while the rest of the world are keeping separated and masked - maybe for years. If, on the other hand, we get an effective treatment then our method of delaying until treatment will save more lives. We still don't know the final results. If HCQ and friends works, but still allows the infected to develop immunity then we win. If it prevents infection but still leaves patients vulnerable to future infections, we will continue fighting the disease for years.

[DoodleBob]

Thanks for posting.

[DoodleBob]

Um, I’m all-in on opening up - but while Sweden did some things right, slobbering all over Sweden reveals a misreading of the whole affair. They got to their “hands off” approach by trusting “science” and “experts.” And now, Sweden’s “science” and “experts” will likely “shut down” if the bug heats up in the fall/winter. I’ll take the bedlam and freedom of the US vs the blind faith in “science” that gave us Greta.

[Baldwin]

Jesus. What happened to Forbes? It is supposed to be a financial publication. Thus you would at least think they would get the financials right. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/29/coronavirus-swedens-gdp-actually-grew-in-the-first-quarter.html

Sweden’s economy GREW .4% in the first quarter.

[American in Israel]

Sweden is overrun by Muslims, they do not follow the laws so social distancing was a Non starter.

Strangely though, Forbes who supposedly is all about the economy, forgot to mention that Sweden did not loose their middle class economy.

The largest wealth transfer in history from the middle class to the wealthy just took place and Forbes missed that.

The 80,000 lb gorilla in the room.