Posted on 05/24/2020 7:55:32 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum
Are politicians now continuing the lockdowns because admitting error — that they’re guilty of advancing one of American history’s greatest blunders — would mean political destruction? Are they continuing to destroy the careers of millions to save their own (when, perhaps, something more sinister is not at work)? Many may now draw this conclusion after yet another study, this one by establishment company JP Morgan, has found that the lockdowns have done nothing to alter the Wuhan coronavirus pandemic’s course.
As the Daily Mail reports:
Falling infection rates since lockdowns were lifted suggest that the virus ‘likely has its own dynamics’ which are ‘unrelated to often inconsistent lockdown measures’, a report published by the financial services giant said.
Denmark is among the countries which has [sic] seen its R [infection] rate continue to fall after schools and shopping malls re-opened, while Germany's rate has mostly remained below 1.0 after the lockdown was eased.
The report also shows many US states including Alabama, Wisconsin and Colorado enjoying lower R rates after lockdown measures were lifted.
Author Marko Kolanovic, a trained physicist and a strategist for JP Morgan, said governments had been spooked by ‘flawed scientific papers’ into imposing lockdowns which were ‘inefficient or late’ and had little effect.
‘Unlike rigorous testing of new drugs, lockdowns were administered with little consideration that they might not only cause economic devastation but potentially more deaths than Covid-19 itself,’ he claimed.
The JP Morgan report includes graphs [below] showing that ‘the vast majority of countries had decreased infection rates’ after lockdowns were lifted.
(Excerpt) Read more at thenewamerican.com ...
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm
This is a very interesting chart from the CDC.
Table 1. Deaths involving coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), pneumonia, and influenza reported to NCHS by week ending date, United States. Week ending 2/1/2020 to 5/16/2020.
Take a good look at the columns, especially the “Percent of expected deaths” (the number of deaths for all causes for this week in 2020 compared to the average number across the same week in 2017–2019.)
Click the little blue up/down arrow in the label to sort that column. You will then see when the increased deaths from this pandemic (or something) began and ended.
Specifically, it STARTED the week ending 3/28/2020 and ENDED the week ending 5/02/2020. All weeks before that period and after that period are LOWER than the average of 2017 to 2019.
Let me say that again: This Covid-19 Pandemic resulted in a higher than normal total USA deaths starting on March 21, 2020 and ending on May 02, 2020.
We have had lower than average total deaths in the USA since May 02, according this chart.
This pandemic is now under control.
END the LOCK-DOWN!
Table 2. Deaths involving coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), pneumonia, and influenza reported to NCHS by jurisdiction of occurrence, United States. Week ending 2/1/2020 to 5/16/2020 is even more interesting.
Sort the “Percent of expected deaths” to display which states had the worst impacts from this pandemic.
I’ll leave it to all of you to analyze those results.
Some caution is in order here: a disease outbreak is not considered controlled until 2 incubation periods have passed without any new cases. For Covid-19, that means 4 weeks must pass, since the incubation period is 2-14 days. There are still over 20,000 new cases per day in the US.
Lifting the lock-downs before robust contact tracing and testing programs are in place can cause the virus to pick right back up on its original spread.
No, two periods is 10 days. The incubation period is 2-14 days but the average is 4.6-5 days. You use the average for using r0 and waves.
We’ve never needed any of that before.
Sounds like you’re a “never let a crisis go to waste” type of guy.
I’m still waiting to see the scientific reasoning behind the business lock-downs. Shutting down a book store or a pawn shop saves how many lives, exactly? How many do we sacrifice by keeping the 7-Eleven open? Based on what data, what science, what simplifying assumptions?
How many are lost by closing things down? I encountered someone the other day clinging to a lamppost and begging for the police to come, completely overwhelmed by the isolation and the fear. Is it worth it?
Hmm... You must not have noticed the kryptonite in my previous post. The pandemic has been under control in the USA for over three weeks now.
And you seem to think contact tracing is a good idea?
Here’s the thing.
The American people were told that we needed a 15 day, oops 30 day lockdown to “slow the spread” so that hospitals would not be overwhelmed. That was the deal that most people accepted, right or wrong.
Hospitals have not been overwhelmed.
The deal was never to contain, control, or otherwise attempt to reduce the total number of infections.
We simply cannot afford any more of this lockdown. It must end, and the public health apparatus must be directed at making that work.
It may involve social distancing, mask wearing, improved hygiene, and protecting the most vulnerable along with whatever other NPI’s are effective, but the “Clampdown” must end. Now.
If the public health folks don’t get ahead of this, people will simply end it themselves. And that could well result in more sickness than we would otherwise have to endure.
Sounds like they aren’t an ex democrat.
This is not a “Zombie” disease where everyone who is touched, dies. South Korea did statistical sampling with antibody testing three months ago and proved a death rate of 0.6% from the infected population.
We were told to “flatted the curve,” which means just about everyone will get it, but more slowly, allowing hospitals to treat within what they can handle. This was never, “Stop Until No One Gets It.”
Let people die a normal death. Less than 0.6% will do so, anyway. People are dying and are being put into bankruptcy because of fear this is a “Zombie-level” extinction event.
I want the virus to spread and so does the government. That’s the whole reason for “flattening the curve.”
there will not be weeks without a covid positive somewhere....
get used to it....
OPEN THE COUNTRY!
But environmentalists are crooning “Look how the Earth is healing, we need to use these same powers because OUR computer models say the world is doomed!”
Making matters worse, Neil Ferguson has a HISTORY of really wrong computer models.
Exhibit 1: Bird flu pandemic ‘could kill 150m’
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2005/sep/30/birdflu.jamessturcke
Exhibit 2: up to 50,000 dead from mad cow disease
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2002/jan/09/research.highereducati
There’s been a push to re-open libraries but they refuse. Yet I’ve never seen a library at 50% capacity, and if they’re concerned, you keep the toys and shows out of the kid area. People reading books generally social distance anyway.
All of this was contrived politically motivated bullshit.
/WuFluCoup
Zombies, I’ve been prepared for.
Wilting lilies, I can’t get my head around.
I have been mightily pissed for the duration.
Exactly, absalom01.
And the next effort must be to recover from the severe damage this lock down has done to our country.
A lot of issues must be addressed to accomplish that.
1. End the tyranny of the arrogant politicians at all levels exercising petty, unnecessary, ineffective or arbitrary limitations on our liberty.
2. Halt the unbridled growth of unelected but extremely powerful regulators, especially those who failed in their missions to properly prepare this pandemic. Specifically, HHS, NIH, CDC, and FDA all enjoy and are influenced far too much through hidden political and financial connections to the medical, pharmaceutical, and food industries.
3. Specifically examine the published CDC strategy (currently disguised as “Contact Tracing”) but is in reality a huge effort aimed at “vaccination tracking and enforcement”. Not only is this potentially an unconstitutional violation of liberty, it proposes a need for 300,000 additional “administrators” (enforcers).
MOre science the left will ignore.
I’m confused. If social distancing works, then why do we need masks? And if masks work, why didn’t they give them to prisoners instead of letting them out? And if masks don’t work, why must we wear them?
p
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