Posted on 05/24/2020 2:38:19 AM PDT by DoughtyOne
PING LIST - Please contact me as needed...
COVID-19 Update # 67
As of 05/23/2020 23:15 PDST United States CDC - Provisional Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST Johns Hopkins University - Capture Nations Informaton
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST Johns Hopkins University - Capture Counties Information
As of 00/00/2020 23:46 PDST Johns Hopkins University - Process JHU Data
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST WorldofMeters - Document Core Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST WorldofMeters - Capture Nations Information
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST WorldofMeters - Capture States Information
As of 00/00/2020 00:00 PDST WorldofMeters - Data Processing begins...
As of 00/00/2020 ??:?? PDST Publish COVID-19 Update - 00/00/00
Thank you for stopping by to check out the COVID-19 Update.
Here you can find...
Section: 01 Commentary, Special Reports, COVID-19 Update Info, & System Notes
Section: 02 the United States Situation
Section: 03 the Global Community Situation Outside China
Section: 04 the Global Community Situation Including China with reservations
Section: 05 the Mortality Report
Section: 06 Miscellaneous Reports of Interest
Section: 07 the United States, Counties (alphabetical / case no descending)
Section: 08 the United States, States Ranking, Provisional Numbers, & Territories
Section: 09 the United States, Ranked with Other Nations
Section: 10 the End of this COVID-19 Update
Section: 11 Data Sources and a Link to My Own Spreadsheet
Section: 12 Linked Spreadsheet: Counties, States, Provisional, Territories, & Nations
Section: 13 Links to Other Resources
Section: 01
Commentary, Special Reports, and COVID-19 Update Information2
Interesting Tid-bits (hopefully)
Yesterday's Summary in a Nutshell
For the first time in three days, yesterday was not a new all time record for
New Cases on the Global scene. Instead it was the eighth record day in a row,
that saw the single day new Case declarations broken. Once again, it was the
highest Saturday on record at 100,511.
Since last Saturday each day has set a new record for the day on the Global
scene. Our numbers haven't done that... Our numbers were down considerably
from the day before, and that day from the day before it.
The U. S. numbers fell off to 21,475 from 24,157, and the 24,157 from the
28,157 on Thursday. This still isn't where we would like to be, but it's
a whole lot better than Thursday's number.
As for Fatalities, the Global numbers wound up at 3,954 for the day, coming
in considerably lower than the 5,381 figure from the day before.
Our Fatalities for Saturday came in at 1,028. The four days going back
were 1,296, 1,418, 1,408, and 1,552. That last figure was for Tuesday. We've
held our own against the higher numbers hitting globally.
There was another note-worthy event yesterday in the United States. There was
another large day of Recoveries, which caused our active cases to drop. It also
caused various metrics to reverse directions as well.
This last happened on the 12th. At that time the Resolved Cases were trending
up day by day, but that day there was an adnormally big Resolved Case number
for the day. Here is the five day growth, with the last number being the one
for the 12th. 302,365 - 318,120 - 337,123 - 344,020 & 380,171.
Here are the five numbers from this run up. Notice the higher range.
454,713 - 465,753 - 478,603 - 500,883 & 545,597. As you can tell, our
numbers of Recoveries and Resolved Cases are taking off. Fatalities also
figure in, but they remain in a low range now, and were not driving this.
I do not expect this to be the new normal, but I wouldn't rule it out as
something that may happen more often now.
Numbers of people per 1 case grew. Our Mortality rate dropped. Our slice of
the global pie shrank. Our number of active cases dipped by 23,399 cases. We
started the day with 1,144,470 cases. We ended the day with 1,121,231.
Daily Movers and Shakers
I've made it possible to see total numbers of Cases and Deaths, but I wanted
to give a better picture of what nations were driving day to day numbers now.
Why are these global numbers so high? Who is feeding them?
Beginning tonight, I am posting a new Data Sheet at the bottom of the Global
Outside China Section. I will sort and present the top 50 highest nations
with New Cases, and New Fatalities, both a total for the single day. This
should make it easy to review who the Movers and Shakers are.
Section: 02
The Following Addresses the Numbers Here in
the United Staetes of America
Here we go...
You can see the decreased Case Count yesterday. Two days ago, I was afraid
we were going to be residing in the 27 - 28k area for a few days. This drop
in two days down to 21,475 was a relief.
Also of note are the Recoveries, the Resolved Cases, and the remaining Active
cases. We don't see those look this good very often, but I am looking forward
to days when we will.
Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Critical here, courtesy of amorphous
Here are more of our numbers...
Fatalities are still holding lower. We'll be able to see them better down
below in the Mortality Section: 05.
Our Slice of the COVID-19 Pie
The growth of our slice of the pie has been dropping recently.
Here are the numbers I've been tracking, Globally Declared and Active Cases.
Our slice of the global pie has been getting smaller. Today's numbers were
good. Would be nice to see the Resolved cases continue at this level as long
as the Fatalities remained in the lower ranges.
Active Cases in the United States / Chart
Unlike some of the other charts here, we should see a good rise and
fall at some point withone.
Note that this presents the one day and then 7 and 14 day averaging versions.
Remember, these are not new Declared Cases. These are remaing Active Cases.
All three indicators here were pointing to a flattening out of remaining Active
Cases.
The numbers from yesterday's pleasant surprise, helped a lot here.
Testing and New Case Figures
Requested by stocksthatgoup
Some folks have shown an interest in seeing the COVID-19 Test figures compared
to the New Cases being declared. This following Data addresses that.
I went back as far as I could in my records. I plan on keeping a running
30 day display here, with the Chart starting on 04/21 & 04/23 ongoing.
You can see how the Declared Cases to Testing percentage has gone down over
time. What isn't clear here, is that we dropped two positions to 26th in
the tests per million category. We've been struggling at 38 to 43, so this
was a nice change. Hopefully we don't lose this position tomorrow due to
the elevated Resolves Cases dropping back down.
Here is a chart to reveal visually what the decline has looked like.
Folks can determine for themselves just how New Cases are affected by the
Testing.
Section: 03
The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
without Mainland China
Here is the first set of Data for the Global Outside China
Territories
The growth of new Global Cases outside China is not going well. Those
nations we've been tracking with over 1,000 cases each, there are 107 of them
now, and some of them are growing exponentially.
There are now 17 nations with declarations of New Cases over 1,000 per day
now.
Look to the new presentation at the bottom of this Section, to see what nations
are putting out the big numbers right now. If you do, you'll see that Brazil
had a higher Fatality count than we did today.
We are still pulling in more Cases per day, but Brazil is taking a run at it.
Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active Cases, and
Serious/Critical Cases - Globally, Excluding M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and
Serious/Critical here, courtesy of amorphous
Here we go...
Again, I don't believe there is anything unusual here today.
How is the Global Community Outside China Doing,
Without U. S. numbers?
Well, a little better yesterday...
Globally outside China and the U. S., the numbers are a mess. That middle
number there was lower yesterday, but it's still too high. It indicates an
out of control situation. Look at those numbers for the last four days,
compared to the numbers in the weeks before.
There are record numbers every day of the week in this region.
A couple of weeks ago it seemed we were all headed toward the end of this,
but now the Global scene is having a big wave.
Look at the massive humbers the Global community has been hitting over the
last ten days or so.
Look at our blue field compared to the Global red field.
Our day was very decent, but Globally outside China, things are on fire.
It's not looking good. Check out the direction of those red lines above.
It's fitting that Excel chose red for them.
The Active Cases outside China Globally / Chart
As in the U. S. version of this, we should see a good rise and fall at
some point these two.
Note that these present the one day and then 7 and 14 day averaging versions.
Remember, these are not new declared Cases. These are remaing active cases.
If you look closely at that last one, it shows that just when things looked
ready to flatten out, new nations caught fire with COVID-19, and up went the
count of Cases again.
Special Section on France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the U. K.
Case growth.
Let's Look at Some Numbers in Five Day Increments:
The same comments fit for about each day here.
The chart of Cases, causes the perception that it is in conflict with the
second chart below it. Actually it isn't. It is depicting raw numbers
of New Cases. Down below the chart addresses per million numbers.
They appear to skew, but everything is accurate here.
Sweden and It's Neighbors, Who Has the Best Tactic Against COVID-19?
Sweden is doing its own thing with regard to isolating. I think most people
are aware of it by now.
Here are some numbers to help us look at this issue.
Sweden still remains a hot topic.
Movers and Shakers is a New Feature as of 05/22/2020.
I will present the top fifty nations with the most New Cases and New
Fatilities.
Here we go...
For your review...
Section: 04
The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
including Mainland China*
Mainland China's numbers are 0.003% of today's total global numbers.
A Look at Declared, Resolved, and Active Cases, Includes M/L China
End of day figures follow:
On the right that Declared Cases resolution percentage continues to grow.
Look at the increase from 04/21 to this point. Nice...
We should be at 50% by the 28th to the 30th of May. The way it has been going,
we may actually hit 50% earlier than that. We'll see.
Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active, and Serious/Critical
Cases Globally, Including M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and
Serious/Critical here, courtesy of amorphous
Not much to say here. Big numbers getting bigger!
Section: 05
the Mortality Report
Our numbers are big enough that they can hide the finer nuances of the
Global numbers outside China. For that reason, I strip our numbers off
that group and report them separately for this area of study.
Here are the figures for the growing case totals for four entities.
I urge folks to review the CDC's Provisional numbers bellow. I am not touting
this count (98,683), but it's out there so I mention it. We have articles all
over the forum detailing the issues with these numbers, but we have to have
reference points.
With no numbers we'd be flying blind. It's really pretty simple. Well, to
most adults it is.
Here is the chart to go along with those figures.
Looks pretty ominous there doesn't it.
Here are figures revealing the daily growth for those four entities.
Our numbers of new Fatalities went down again yesterday. Heading deeper into the
the week we went down even as the Global community has been breaking records.
Good for us!
Here are two charts to go with the above data.
These each seem to be taking a little bounce up, then down. We'll have to
watch this one closely.
Here, let's look at data for the U. S. broken out by itself.
Looking back, yesterday's figure looks a lot better. Even in the last month
we can see a lot higher days. Saturday's numbers went down nicely.
Despite moving down, we have to wonder if we can hold this. I like what I
am seeing in the U. S. Areas that have reoppened haven't caused much to be
concerned about. Let's hope we can hold it together.
Section: 06
Population Saturation
Here are figures revealing how many people in each population base represent one case.
I'm also showing what percent of each population base is infected at this time.
This is actually one of the best showings we have made in this area. Our
infection rate went DOWN, and our one case for a certain number of people
actually rose there for only the second time.
Nice...
Nations With Lots of Cases
At the end of the day yesterday, there were:
That's a whole lot of nations there. With over 1,000 in each one, we know
that over time they are potential declared cases time-bombs.
Right now in the Global scene, some of these nations are going exponential.
It's sad to see. Sadly, those folks can infect other nations too depening on
how things are handled. Other nations need to stay on top of things,
including our own.
Daily Case Report Evaluation
I'll be keeping tabs on the daily tallies for days of the week for a while. Folks have
noticed some patterns of larger and smaller data entry on certain days, and on Fridays
sometimes the numbers get noticeably larger because of it.
And we now know Thursdays have potential to break out also. Yikes!
Let's check out the numbers and a chart.
Look at the last column on the right of each grouping, and you'll note that we
are now in our second week of new records for each eay. Eight days running, we
have had a new record for the day.
As long as those 1,000 plus case nations keep exploding, it is going to be
touch and go Globally.
Not liking this one bit. I'd like to see everyone winding down.
Section: 07
The Top 200 Counties in the U. S., by Number of Cases
This little report lists 200 Counties in the United States in declining Case numbers.
There is also a listing that is alphabetical. This report list only the entities
and the number of Cases in the two different sorts.
It will also be available as a downloadable Excel file in Section 12.
Section: 08
States of the Union and the District of Columbia, Compared to Each Other
Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
If this area interests you, please use this LINK to the source, and review
the lengthy description and explanation of it's development process.
There are two reports. The presentation above comes from the second one,
and the detailed segmented information below it, may interest you.
These can now also be found under the states on the Alphabetical list. The
states and these entity's numbers should be combined to match that of the
U. S. figures each day.
Section: 09
The United States, Where it Ranks With Other Nations?
Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.
The U. S. will be highlighted red here so we can find it easily in the list.
There was 215 nations on this list last night now. I didn't want to post
seven lists with 215 nations on it, so I picked the top 50. Coincidentally,
one report category had the U. S. at 41st, so it wasn't showing up on the
list with the 31 top nations on it. That wasn't the reason why I extended the
list length, but it did work out well.
I work on the nations right next to the states on my spreadsheet. The
states with the District of Columbia come in at a total of 51 lines.
I decided to keep the international reports near that length, and 50
was good enough.
Here we go... for your review.
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
Well we were 36th on the list at the end of the day. We've come up from as
low at 43, so we've made some progress here.
Section: 10
Here is what it is all about. From January 20th to the present.
This concludes our look back at yesterday's data. Take care...
Section: 11
Data for this Report Sourced From:
LINK WorldoMeters
LINK Johns Hopkins University
The Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE)
LINK United States Center for Disease Control - Provisional Numbers
Listed in the order of current utilization...
LINK You are Invited to Review My COVID-19 Spreadsheet (XLSX)
There is not an XLS version available for distribution at this time.
Section: 12
Other Features:
LINK US Counties200, States & DC51, Territories & Other Entities11, Nations214,
and the CDC Provisional Counts53
Five Excel Spreadsheet datasets you can sort for your own studies...
Section: 13
Links to other resources:
I cannot vouch for these sites. Please use your own judgement.
LINK Adventist Health Coronavirus Resource Hub - Scroll down for useful info
LINK Antibiotic Vitamin, the (Vitamin D)
Good article on Vitamin D's likely role in prevention of infection. Thanks Blam.
LINK CDC Data for Download - Scroll down - Excel required. Includes death stats.
LINK CDC National Center for Health Services
Provisional deaths as determined by review of vital documents. Much lower...
LINK CDC Secondary Data and Statistics - Portal Entry / Look around
LINK Coronavirus (COVID-19) Map
LINK Coronavirus infection risk may be reduced by Vitamin D
by Former CDC Chief Dr. Tom Frieden
LINK Coronavirus Spread Quickly Around the World in Late 2019, Study Shows
the University College London Genetics Institute
LINK COVID-19 Deaths Broken Out by Thirds, 05/07/20 Map of US Counties
Very revealing display of Concentrated Death Zones - thanks hoosiermama
LINK COVID-19 First U.S. Case, Treatment, features Remdesivir
New England Journal of Medicine article
LINK Cytokine Storm, med Actemra, Physician near death saved
LINK Diamond Princess Review at 634 Case Point of Eventual 712
LINK Hydroxychloroquine Article: International Poll
Daily Mail Reports, Most Effective Treatment According to 6,000 Physicians
LINK Hydroxychloroquine Has about 90 Percent Chance of Helping COVID-19 Patients
the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons, reports 91.6% of patients improved clinically
LINK IHME - Institute for Health Matrix and Evaluation
LINK National Institutes of Health - Cornavirus (COVID-19)
LINK Nasal Irrigation is the Key, COVID-19 Related
LINK New York City - interesting breakdown, borough, age, sex
LINK On the Origin of CCP Virus, A Documentary Movie (turn up the sound)
Epoch Times: I highly recommend this very well documented report.
LINK Rt COVID-19
Calculates and displays the Rt Factor for each state. Thanks FreedomPoster.
LINK World Health Organization
Becoming quite impressive.
Thanks.
How many daily cancer deaths are there?
Have they increased since patients haven't been able to get care?
We are putting way too time on this chi-com virus, which has a very low death rate.
And please spare me that "one death is too many" diatribe.
No individual wants to die, but 8,000 people die every day in America.
You are putting many hours into these charts, and doing it well, but I'm done reading them.
With china lying, and every other country putting out numbers that are part fact, part fiction but plenty of bullshit, it over for me.
No disrespect to you, but please take me off of the ping list.
First time I have clicked entirely through your COVID data coverage.
It is really impressive. Thanks for your hard work.
One problem I have with comparative data is that there are really no international reporting standards for COVID.
From memory, there are like half a dozen different tests being used. Also, there are no standards at all for “recovered” cases.
In case you do not know, I read today that the CDC and various states are combining the numbers for antibody tests with active infection tests, which will definitely confuse things. Also, USA testing is heavily weighted in favor of high infection states like NY and NJ, which adds more distortion.
In regard to USA COVID fatalities, I would love to know how many infected people have died, but were NOT counted as a COVID fatality. My guess - ZERO!
For perspective - I wish Trump would order the CDC to recount annual influenza deaths using the same method they use to count COVID deaths. If they did recount, influenza deaths would go up 100,000 based on pneumonia alone!
I did not notice any data on “Deaths - All Causes” on your page. This may interest you...
USA Total Deaths:
2018 - First 18 Weeks - 1,053,535
2019 - First 18 Weeks - 1,027,360
2020 - First 18 Weeks - 1,085,534
In 2018, we had 61,000 influenza deaths, which was the largest number in the last 10 years.
Alaska,
My Comment #5 might interest you.
At the very end I compare “USA Total Deaths” for the first 18 weeks of the last three years.
COVID fatalities are definitely having an impact on the 2020 data, but we will have to wait for the rest of the year to fairly judge exactly how much.
Once again, thanks for the good work.
Looks like the trend of new cases us a bumpy decline.
I don’t understand what a resolved case is and why it’s only around 30% for the US. Certainly more people than that have recovered and gone on with their lives.
“Have they increased since patients haven’t been able to get care?”
No doubt deaths from other causes will spike because of missed preventative care. Hopefully those numbers will be tabulated to keep an accurate perspective.
As always, thanks for doing this.
One thing I have been pondering is the dropping percentage of tests that are positive. Is this factoring in random testing being done to see how widespread things are? Or is there something else at play here?
Because if it isn’t random testing, then most tests should represent someone who felt they were sick enough to visit a doctor who also felt they were sick enough to warrant a test, or someone who felt they were sick enough to go to one of the open (drive up) testing sites.
Or is this a factor of the early tests having too many false positives (which also might explain so many folks that tested positive but had no major symptoms), and the current tests are more accurate? Or the opposite, the current test having too many false negatives?
And if indeed this is on the up-and-up, where these all represent people that felt they were sick enough to have the test, what does that tell us? Is there something else out there causing symptoms that is not Covid? Of course, the positive test rate has always been pretty low, but effectively we have cut that rate to a third of the original.
Another thought, has the virus evolved enough that the tests aren’t catching the newer versions?
What do all you all think?
“””One thing I have been pondering is the dropping percentage of tests that are positive. Is this factoring in random testing being done to see how widespread things are?”””
As an example, in Florida we are testing all the patients and staff in nursing homes on a random basis whether they have symptoms or not.
As a result the number of new cases from those tested for the first time is in the 2% range of being found positive.
As testing ramps up elsewhere with more non-symptomatic people being tested the percent positive will get smaller and smaller.
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