True, but in the early stages of a novel infection like this it's all you have.
The glaring omission in all of the Imperial criticism I've seen is a reference to a model that was better at the time.
It's mostly been weak post hoc whining.
And THAT is the most egregious part of this. Anyone who understands math and modeling should know that you really have NOTHING to support prediction. Its the Hockey Stick global warming model all over again. The best you can do is be like the weatherman..."there is a good chance that tomorrow will be like today." Now thats a great job to have.