Below find that data - I also included data for other select countries and most states: I standardized each Country's cumulative COVID-19 fatality count per GitHub by its population, then multiply the resulting quotient by the US' population of 329MM to put everyone on a common/US scale. I then index each Country's time-series to Day 1, where their size-adjusted fatality count is right before it breaches 1,000 people. This corrects for what I call the "Golf Problem" where broadcasts of the Masters etc have to show not only each golfer's score, but which hole they're at. I also list the Day 1 date and the population for reference, i.e., Sweden has finished the 56th hole while the US is still on the 54th hole, but we can compare their 'scores' as of the 54th hole.
In short, Sweden's cumulative size-adjusted fatality total has consistently exceeded the US' total by 20%+ since around Day 32 (April 24 for the US, April 26th for Sweden). Thus, they haven't exactly been 'successful' in terms of virus fatalities vs the US. However, they're not as bad as Belgium, Italy, France, Spain, the UK.
SE's size- and time-adjusted fatalities are lower than all the States that are higher than the US total. In truth, you need to adjust Stockholm out of SE's total when doing a State comparison to be apples-to-apples; for those following at home, Stockholm's fatality count of 1,845 on May 17 across 972,647 citizens on a size-adjusted basis with the US is 625,149 fatalities which is higher than anyting in this post; non-Stockholm SE size-adjusted fatalities would be 64,568 which is not apples-to-apples comparable to the US but is there for reference.
Furthermore, Sweden has NOT been a conservative dream in terms of OVERALL approach. Yes, we like the open businesses and open schools. But when you read things like
"We are putting decisions in the hands of those who know better"
it's a sober reminder that all that good stuff comes with Greta Thunberg-like environmentalis that just happily shut down its last coal-fired power plant two years ahead of schedule.
Yes, their businesses stayed open but they're not immune to recession: Sweden is forecasting high UMP and declining GDP just like the US. The Forbes article said SE's economic damage could be on par with that of the US (personally I don't think they'll crater as badly as we do in the first half of 2020; latter part of 2020 is a crap shoot as is 2021).
What seems to be missed on people, is Sweden got to this happy place because they TRUST their government to tell them the right thing to do. Their govt made these decisions based on "science." This is the same country in which their "science" that just happily shut its last coal-fired power plant.
And when their "science" promotes contact tracing, or if in the fall it calls for a shutdown, they'll be all-in.
It may be great to take Sweden's approach - and for the record lest I be confused as a 'no freedom till vaccine' nutjob, I wish the US had followed SE's more reasonable, business-friendly and age-based approach to school closures - but SE's positives cannot be disentangled from their faith in authority. I don't like shutdowns and we need to open up businesses NOW in the US. But Sweden's virus approach is siren song emanating from a collectivist, authority bias rocky coastline. Some alleged conservatives want to gloss over that coastline, and in doing so they wind up being as consistent as the ACLU is on the Second Amendment.
I'll stay in America and take my chances; McEnroe turned out to be less of a mess than Borg in the long run.
| Country | Sweden | United States | ||
| Day 1 Date | 3/23/20 | 3/25/20 | ||
| Population | 10,333,456 | 329,556,365 | Sweden - US | % excess SE vs US |
| Day 56 | 117,331 | - | - | - |
| Day 55 | 117,172 | - | - | - |
| Day 54 | 116,279 | 89,562 | 26,717 | 29.8% |
| Day 53 | 112,547 | 88,754 | 23,793 | 26.8% |
| Day 52 | 110,347 | 87,530 | 22,817 | 26.1% |
| Day 51 | 105,659 | 85,898 | 19,761 | 23.0% |
| Day 50 | 103,841 | 84,119 | 19,722 | 23.4% |
| Day 49 | 102,852 | 82,376 | 20,476 | 24.9% |
| Day 48 | 102,693 | 80,682 | 22,011 | 27.3% |
| Day 47 | 101,258 | 79,526 | 21,732 | 27.3% |
| Day 46 | 96,952 | 78,795 | 18,157 | 23.0% |
| Day 45 | 93,795 | 77,180 | 16,615 | 21.5% |
| Day 44 | 91,020 | 75,662 | 15,358 | 20.3% |
| Day 43 | 88,309 | 73,431 | 14,878 | 20.3% |
| Day 42 | 85,439 | 71,064 | 14,375 | 20.2% |
| Day 41 | 85,120 | 68,922 | 16,198 | 23.5% |
| Day 40 | 84,610 | 67,682 | 16,928 | 25.0% |
| Day 39 | 82,473 | 66,369 | 16,104 | 24.3% |
| Day 38 | 78,519 | 64,943 | 13,576 | 20.9% |
| Day 37 | 75,106 | 62,996 | 12,110 | 19.2% |
| Day 36 | 72,523 | 60,967 | 11,556 | 19.0% |
| Day 35 | 69,971 | 58,355 | 11,616 | 19.9% |
| Day 34 | 69,908 | 56,259 | 13,649 | 24.3% |
| Day 33 | 68,632 | 54,881 | 13,751 | 25.1% |
| Day 32 | 64,454 | 53,755 | 10,699 | 19.9% |
| Day 31 | 61,775 | 51,949 | 9,826 | 18.9% |
| Day 30 | 56,290 | 49,954 | 6,336 | 12.7% |
| Day 29 | 50,390 | 46,622 | 3,768 | 8.1% |
| Day 28 | 49,114 | 44,444 | 4,670 | 10.5% |
| Day 27 | 48,189 | 42,094 | 6,095 | 14.5% |
| Day 26 | 44,649 | 40,661 | 3,988 | 9.8% |
| Day 25 | 42,512 | 38,664 | 3,848 | 10.0% |
| Day 24 | 38,366 | 36,773 | 1,593 | 4.3% |
| Day 23 | 32,945 | 32,916 | 29 | 0.1% |
| Day 22 | 29,309 | 28,325 | 984 | 3.5% |
| Day 21 | 28,671 | 25,831 | 2,840 | 11.0% |
| Day 20 | 28,288 | 23,528 | 4,760 | 20.2% |
| Day 19 | 27,746 | 22,019 | 5,727 | 26.0% |
| Day 18 | 25,290 | 20,462 | 4,828 | 23.6% |
| Day 17 | 21,910 | 18,586 | 3,324 | 17.9% |
| Day 16 | 18,848 | 16,478 | 2,370 | 14.4% |
| Day 15 | 15,213 | 14,695 | 518 | 3.5% |
| Day 14 | 12,789 | 12,722 | 67 | 0.5% |
| Day 13 | 11,896 | 10,783 | 1,113 | 10.3% |
| Day 12 | 11,417 | 9,619 | 1,798 | 18.7% |
| Day 11 | 9,823 | 8,407 | 1,416 | 16.8% |
| Day 10 | 7,622 | 7,087 | 535 | 7.6% |
| Day 9 | 5,741 | 5,926 | (185) | -3.1% |
| Day 8 | 4,656 | 4,757 | (101) | -2.1% |
| Day 7 | 3,508 | 3,873 | (365) | -9.4% |
| Day 6 | 3,349 | 2,978 | 371 | 12.4% |
| Day 5 | 3,349 | 2,467 | 882 | 35.7% |
| Day 4 | 2,456 | 2,026 | 430 | 21.2% |
| Day 3 | 1,977 | 1,581 | 396 | 25.1% |
| Day 2 | 1,148 | 1,209 | (61) | -5.0% |
| Day 1 | 797 | 942 | (145) | -15.4% |
Note for the US as nation, that Day 1 is March 25, which means Day 54 is May 17 for that row of data. You can do the math for the other municipalities to find out what Day XX means for them in calendar times; as a general rule, the last actual data point is the freshest date, but on a Golf timeline it gives each municipality's score as of the "48th hole."
The sort order is Day 54 for the international table. For the states' data, I sort by Day 47 which generally keeps the relative ranking steady for later days, most notably for the states with higher than national fatality totals.
| Country | Date of Day 1=day priot to hitting 1,000+ population-adjusted deaths | Population | Day 47 | Day 48 | Day 49 | Day 50 | Day 51 | Day 52 | Day 53 | Day 54 | Day 55 | Day 56 |
| San Marino | 3/3/20 | 33,574 | 382,817 | 382,817 | 382,817 | 392,633 | 392,633 | 392,633 | 392,633 | 392,633 | 402,449 | 402,449 |
| Belgium | 3/19/20 | 11,524,454 | 226,597 | 229,228 | 238,464 | 240,638 | 243,669 | 245,385 | 247,529 | 248,988 | 250,532 | 252,877 |
| Andorra | 3/21/20 | 77,543 | 195,499 | 199,749 | 199,749 | 203,999 | 203,999 | 203,999 | 203,999 | 208,249 | 208,249 | 208,249 |
| Spain | 3/13/20 | 47,100,396 | 166,680 | 169,850 | 171,725 | 171,725 | 175,622 | 176,769 | 177,917 | 179,211 | 180,919 | 182,409 |
| United Kingdom | 3/20/20 | 66,435,550 | 146,341 | 149,560 | 152,234 | 155,344 | 157,061 | 158,390 | 159,437 | 162,552 | 165,007 | 167,136 |
| Italy | 3/5/20 | 60,243,406 | 131,914 | 134,835 | 137,225 | 139,764 | 142,061 | 144,331 | 145,754 | 147,575 | 149,665 | 151,432 |
| France | 3/18/20 | 67,076,000 | 122,338 | 123,832 | 125,468 | 126,819 | 127,694 | 128,887 | 129,280 | 129,624 | 130,917 | 132,626 |
| Sweden | 3/23/20 | 10,333,456 | 101,258 | 102,693 | 102,852 | 103,841 | 105,659 | 110,347 | 112,547 | 116,279 | 117,172 | 117,331 |
| Ireland | 3/25/20 | 4,921,500 | 97,631 | 98,234 | 99,640 | 100,243 | 100,846 | 101,649 | 102,654 | 103,323 | - | - |
| Netherlands | 3/17/20 | 17,451,031 | 94,480 | 95,783 | 96,274 | 97,917 | 98,597 | 100,202 | 101,543 | 102,751 | 103,091 | 103,393 |
| United States | 3/25/20 | 329,556,365 | 79,526 | 80,682 | 82,376 | 84,119 | 85,898 | 87,530 | 88,754 | 89,562 | - | - |
| Switzerland | 3/16/20 | 8,586,550 | 67,319 | 67,626 | 67,626 | 68,471 | 68,893 | 69,277 | 69,469 | 69,968 | 70,236 | 70,352 |
| Luxembourg | 3/17/20 | 613,894 | 49,388 | 51,536 | 51,536 | 51,536 | 52,609 | 53,683 | 53,683 | 54,220 | 54,220 | 54,220 |
| Macedonia | 3/24/20 | 679,600 | 44,128 | 44,128 | 44,128 | 44,613 | 46,068 | 46,068 | 47,038 | 47,523 | 48,978 | - |
| Portugal | 3/23/20 | 10,276,617 | 35,724 | 36,109 | 36,398 | 36,686 | 37,296 | 37,681 | 37,969 | 38,162 | 38,578 | 39,060 |
| Germany | 3/25/20 | 83,149,300 | 29,999 | 30,364 | 30,669 | 31,157 | 31,248 | 31,299 | 31,462 | 31,557 | - | - |
| Denmark | 3/22/20 | 5,822,763 | 29,091 | 29,544 | 29,771 | 29,940 | 30,167 | 29,827 | 30,167 | 30,393 | 30,393 | 30,733 |
| Iran | 3/9/20 | 83,331,064 | 22,044 | 22,345 | 22,582 | 22,961 | 23,242 | 23,559 | 23,839 | 24,089 | 24,346 | 24,532 |
| Austria | 3/23/20 | 8,902,600 | 22,729 | 22,766 | 22,877 | 22,951 | 23,062 | 23,099 | 23,173 | 23,247 | 23,284 | 23,284 |
| Iceland | 3/23/20 | 364,260 | 9,047 | 9,047 | 9,047 | 9,047 | 9,047 | 9,047 | 9,047 | 9,047 | 9,047 | 9,047 |
| Canada | 4/1/20 | 37,979,093 | 51,222 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Israel | 4/1/20 | 9,180,000 | 9,765 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Municipality | Date of Day 1 = day prior to breaching size-adj 1,000 COVID19 fatalities | Population | Day 47 | Day 48 | Day 49 | Day 50 | Day 51 | Day 52 | Day 53 | Day 54 | Day 55 | Day 56 |
| New York | 43,909 | 19,795,791 | 412,666 | 416,661 | 432,110 | 436,272 | 438,803 | 442,565 | 446,128 | 449,541 | 454,185 | 456,949 |
| New Jersey | 43,913 | 8,958,013 | 329,335 | 335,369 | 340,482 | 342,506 | 349,790 | 356,927 | 365,903 | 372,967 | 377,050 | 380,987 |
| Connecticut | 43,913 | 3,590,886 | 263,764 | 269,087 | 272,299 | 276,062 | 279,090 | 286,799 | 295,426 | 301,483 | 306,439 | 312,772 |
| Massachusetts | 43,915 | 6,794,422 | 241,501 | 247,758 | 249,359 | 257,799 | 265,899 | 271,234 | 276,715 | 281,177 | - | - |
| District of Columbia | 43,914 | 672,228 | 152,466 | 158,349 | 160,800 | 164,722 | 171,586 | 175,508 | 180,410 | 183,842 | 187,764 | - |
| Michigan | 43,914 | 9,922,576 | 150,321 | 151,151 | 152,247 | 155,237 | 156,565 | 158,990 | 160,252 | 162,078 | 162,444 | - |
| Rhode Island | 43,919 | 1,056,298 | 146,012 | 149,444 | 152,564 | 155,684 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Louisiana | 43,910 | 4,670,724 | 144,079 | 147,748 | 150,641 | 151,982 | 154,804 | 156,145 | 158,191 | 160,943 | 163,341 | 165,882 |
| Maryland | 43,921 | 6,006,401 | 107,376 | 109,296 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Pennsylvania | 43,918 | 12,802,503 | 105,643 | 110,637 | 114,087 | 115,580 | 115,940 | - | - | - | - | - |
| Illinois | 43,917 | 12,859,995 | 92,691 | 97,765 | 101,096 | 104,428 | 106,324 | 107,580 | - | - | - | - |
| Delaware | 43,917 | 945,934 | 82,569 | 86,053 | 90,582 | 94,414 | 99,640 | 101,034 | - | - | - | - |
| United States | 43,915 | 329,556,365 | 79,526 | 80,682 | 82,376 | 84,119 | 85,898 | 87,530 | 88,754 | 89,562 | - | - |
| Indiana | 43,916 | 6,619,680 | 76,668 | 78,560 | 80,601 | 81,945 | 84,185 | 86,675 | 87,172 | - | - | - |
| Colorado | 43,914 | 5,456,574 | 58,282 | 58,524 | 59,551 | 60,940 | 64,141 | 65,892 | 69,456 | 71,992 | 73,381 | - |
| Mississippi | 43,917 | 2,992,333 | 50,331 | 51,212 | 52,864 | 54,296 | 56,168 | 57,380 | - | - | - | - |
| Georgia | 43,913 | 10,214,860 | 44,458 | 44,522 | 44,619 | 45,813 | 47,426 | 48,200 | 49,071 | 50,426 | 50,749 | 51,104 |
| Ohio | 43,919 | 11,614,373 | 43,527 | 44,861 | 45,684 | 46,109 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| New Hampshire | 43,922 | 1,330,608 | 42,600 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Minnesota | 43,921 | 5,489,594 | 42,563 | 43,884 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| New Mexico | 43,922 | 2,085,109 | 41,884 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Virginia | 43,919 | 8,382,993 | 37,543 | 38,408 | 39,391 | 39,666 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Iowa | 43,922 | 3,123,899 | 37,029 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Nevada | 43,914 | 2,890,845 | 34,884 | 34,884 | 35,568 | 36,594 | 37,734 | 38,646 | 39,330 | 39,786 | 39,900 | - |
| Washington | 43,898 | 7,170,351 | 32,954 | 33,597 | 34,149 | 34,792 | 35,436 | 36,401 | 36,999 | 37,780 | 38,102 | 38,285 |
| Alabama | 43,921 | 4,858,979 | 32,895 | 33,098 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Missouri | 43,922 | 6,083,672 | 32,665 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Arizona | 43,920 | 6,828,065 | 31,420 | 32,772 | 32,820 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Florida | 43,919 | 20,271,272 | 30,466 | 31,149 | 31,913 | 32,059 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Vermont | 43,908 | 626,042 | 27,373 | 27,373 | 27,373 | 27,373 | 27,900 | 27,900 | 27,900 | 27,900 | 27,900 | 27,900 |
| Kentucky | 43,920 | 4,425,092 | 25,545 | 25,768 | 25,768 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Wisconsin | 43,919 | 5,771,337 | 24,782 | 25,411 | 25,867 | 25,867 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| California | 43,917 | 39,144,818 | 24,432 | 25,375 | 25,585 | 26,873 | 27,395 | 27,698 | - | - | - | - |
| South Carolina | 43,917 | 4,896,146 | 23,895 | 24,366 | 24,972 | 25,578 | 25,578 | 25,914 | - | - | - | - |
| Oklahoma | 43,917 | 3,911,338 | 23,423 | 23,423 | 23,929 | 24,013 | 24,266 | 24,266 | - | - | - | - |
| Nebraska | 43,922 | 1896190 | 22,420 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Kansas | 43,919 | 2,911,641 | 20,487 | 21,166 | 21,392 | 21,392 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| North Dakota | 43,919 | 756,927 | 17,415 | 18,286 | 18,286 | 18,722 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Maine | 43,920 | 1,329,328 | 17,106 | 17,354 | 17,354 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Tennessee | 43,921 | 6,600,299 | 14,580 | 14,630 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Idaho | 43,918 | 1,654,930 | 13,740 | 14,338 | 14,537 | 14,537 | 14,537 | - | - | - | - | - |
| Puerto Rico | 43,922 | 3,680,058 | 11,015 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Arkansas | 43,921 | 2,978,204 | 10,844 | 10,844 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Oregon | 43,917 | 4,028,977 | 10,634 | 10,961 | 11,206 | 11,206 | 11,206 | 11,206 | - | - | - | - |
| Montana | 43,919 | 1,032,949 | 5,105 | 5,105 | 5,105 | 5,105 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Take me off your ping list, thanks.
I don’t have a problem with Sweden at all.
It’s neighbors do have lower numbers, but when you expand
outward, Sweden remains very competitive.
They are not destroying their economy, and the way things
are going, their economy may be bigger than our by the time
our leaders wake the hell up. (yes, exaggerating, but still...)
We can only hide so long before there is nothing left to
open up to.
Cant read all the chart data