Just How Inflated Are Coronavirus Death Counts, Exactly?

PJ Media ^ | 05/15/2020 | Tyler O' Neill

[SeekAndFind]

Last month, New York funeral home directors blew the whistle about inflated coronavirus death numbers. Death certificates mark “COVID-19” as the cause of death even when the deceased hadn’t tested positive for coronavirus, much less actually died of the virus. This week, a San Diego county supervisor suggested the numbers are even more inflated.

“We’ve unfortunately had six pure, solely coronavirus deaths — six out of 3.3 million people,” County Supervisor Jim Desmond said on the radio show Armstrong & Getty Extra Large Interviews., The San Diego Union-Tribune reported. San Diego County had reported roughly 190 deaths at the time — the current number is 200.

Desmond went on to criticize California’s lockdown. “I mean, what number are we trying to get to with those odds. I mean, it’s incredible. We want to be safe, and we can do it, but unfortunately, it’s more about control than getting the economy going again and keeping people safe,” he said.

In short, Desmond was suggesting that while COVID-19 may have contributed to the 190 deaths, most of those deaths were due in part to previous, unrelated health concerns.

Indeed, the disease has proven most deadly for people with underlying health conditions, so it stands to reason that “pure, solely coronavirus deaths” would be the minority — perhaps even just 3.2 percent of the total recorded deaths, as Desmond suggested.

As of Friday afternoon, there have been 87,218 deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the U.S. If Desmond’s claim is accurate and if that 3.2 percent rate holds across the country, and discounting the death certificate inflation, that would mean there are only 2,891 “pure, solely coronavirus deaths” in the U.S.

[SeekAndFind]

The likelihood that “pure, solely coronavirus deaths” are so low does make a difference when analyzing the pandemic in terms of years of life lost, an important measurement.

The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) applies a principle that “the allocation of health resources must consider not only the number of deaths by cause but also by age.” Therefore, the CDC explains that the “years of potential life lost” is a useful figure — not because the lives of young people are more important than the lives of the elderly, but because humans can only delay death, not prevent it, and beause there is a difference between a disease that kills a 20-year-old in the prime of her life and one that kills a 90-year-old who would have otherwise died a month later.

Taking this figure, James Agresti and Andrew Glen at Just Facts compared the maximum years of life the lockdowns could possibly save and compared it to the years of life lost from the anxiety surrounding the pandemic, including lockdown anxiety. “The anxiety from reactions to Covid-19—such as business shutdowns, stay-at-home orders, media exaggerations, and legitimate concerns about the virus—will extinguish at least seven times more years of life than can possibly be saved by the lockdowns,” they concluded.

[SeekAndFind]

Here’s my take on this entire death count issue ( and the author said it better than me ):

There may be four types of recorded coronavirus deaths:

(1) deaths only caused by COVID-19 (roughly 3 percent),

(2) deaths in which COVID-19 ended the life of someone already struggling with health conditions,

(3) deaths from other causes but after a patient had tested positive for the virus, and

(4) deaths falsely marked “COVID-19” when there was not even a test.

Deaths of type 1 and 2 are rightly considered coronavirus deaths, while deaths of type 3 are much harder to distinguish from type 2, and deaths of type 4 are completely inflating the numbers.

The question to ask is this — in our statistics, HOW MANY PERCENT ARE TYPE 3 and 4?

[Jan_Sobieski]

AND...they have been unopposed and successfully created an institutional perverse Incentive for changing the way deaths are counted. So much so, We may find in the near future that, on paper, heart disease and cancer have been mysteriously cured!?!

[tomkat]

My guess is +/- 70%

[eyeamok]

Since the Feds are PAYING the Bill for All ChiCom Flu cases, EVERY DEATH is from the ChiCOm Flu.

[xrmusn]

IMPOSSIBLE to even suggest this to a ‘chicken little’ advocate.

There definitely is NO GRAY area in this matter, ‘WE’ think ‘they’ are hiding their heads in the sand, while ‘they’ think ‘WE’ are a bunch of uncaring murderers.

From the gitgo, my battle cry has been (and will be)

FOLLOW THE MONEY

[CodeToad]

I'd say knowing the multiple countings: 1,000+%.

Between characterizing deaths as COVID when they weren't, and the sloppy way States handle reporting deaths, I have no doubt we are over 10 times the actual deaths.

Here is a Denver news story:

New COVID-19 Death Dispute: Colorado Coroner Says State Mischaracterized Death

"CORTEZ, Colo. (CBS4) – When police in Cortez, Colorado were called to Cortez City Park early on the morning of May 4, they found Sebastian Yellow, 35, lying on the ground and called it out as a code “Frank,” meaning Yellow had died, according to a police report obtained by CBS4.

Within a week, local Montezuma County Coroner George Deavers determined Yellow had died of acute alcohol poisoning, his blood alcohol measured at .55, nearly twice the lethal limit.

“It was almost double what the minimum lethal amount was in the state”, said Deavers, during an interview with CBS4.

But Deavers said that before he even signed the death certificate, the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment had already categorized Yellow’s death as being due to COVID-19 and it was tabulated that way on the state’s website.

“I can see no reason for this”, said Deavers.

Yellow’s death is the latest in Colorado raising eyebrows over the way the CDPHE is reclassifying deaths that runs contrary to what doctors and coroners initially ruled.

Last month, a CBS4 Investigation revealed the state health department reclassified three deaths at a Centennial nursing home as COVID-19 deaths, despite the fact attending physicians ruled all three were not related to coronavirus.

In each case, the residents had tested positive for COVID-19, but in each case, on-scene doctors ruled the deaths were not related to the virus. Still, in their official tally, the state increased the number of coronavirus deaths at the Someren Glen facility from four to seven, based on the disputed deaths."

[catnipman]

now we have fake C-19 deaths to go with fake everything else: fake C-19 deaths help to continue to panic people and cement Democrat and Deep State fascist control ...

[Steve_Seattle]

"The question to ask is this — in our statistics, HOW MANY PERCENT ARE TYPE 3 and 4?"

I even wonder about your category 2: People who were struggling with some other condition but died of corona virus. I don't know how this is handled with other diseases. If someone has a heart attack, is hospitalized, and dies in the hospital of a fever or pneumonia, is the cause of death attributed to the heart attack or to the fever or pneumonia?

My mother died a couple years ago at 97; she had Type II diabetes and congestive heart failure, but did not die of any specific complication of either, but of "old age." She was not hospitalized, and just faded away.

As for your categories 3 and 4, I have no idea how many people fall into those groups. Based on what I've been hearing, I know it is "some," but whether its 1% or 5% or 10 % or 25% or 50%, I have no idea, and no basis for choosing a figure.

Given the state of today's journalism, and even of our medical profession, we may never know the answer, and many have a vested interest in preventing the question from even being asked.

[Vaduz]

Depends of how much of a slow news day and and early happy hour for the reporters.

[9YearLurker]

If ScarfFace says 25%, I imagine about 250% is about right.

[Grampa Dave]

Thanks for posting this reality. We have been hearing for a couple of weeks that some California counties/cities had inflated the Corona-19 deaths in nursing homes/rest homes.

This week, a San Diego county supervisor suggested the numbers are even more inflated.

“We’ve unfortunately had six pure, solely coronavirus deaths — six out of 3.3 million people,” County Supervisor Jim Desmond said on the radio show Armstrong & Getty Extra Large Interviews., The San Diego Union-Tribune reported. San Diego County had reported roughly 190 deaths at the time — the current number is 200. http://freerepublic.com/perl/post?id=3845518%2C1

[kickstart]

Follow the money.

[Oatka]

At least they admitted it:

Colorado amends coronavirus death count - says fewer have died of COVID-19 than previously thought

[brookwood]

Dear “Seekandfind”

This is about the 20th time I have rebutted your ludicrous death count idiocy. When there are excess deaths above historical norms, they are being caused by something new and different. This year Covid19 is the new and different disease that is causing excess deaths. Is there any way this will eventually sink into your feeble mind? There have been 20,316 confirmed or probably Covid deaths in NYC since March 28th. There have been 13,633 deaths since March 11th in NYC from ALL OTHER CAUSES. The normal death rate in NYC is 158 per day.
Non-Covid deaths have been running at 201 per day which is higher than normal. Covid deaths have been 461 per day over the last 44 days. If Covid is not causing these deaths what is, pray tell, my dear SeekandFind Chinese propaganda troll?

https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-19-deaths-confirmed-probable-daily-05152020.pdf
from 4:30 reports
Date NYC Deaths 450
3-28 222 672
3-29 104 776
3-30 136 914
3-31 182 1096
4-1 278 1374
4-2 188 1562
4-3 305 1867
4-4 387 2254 244.94%
4-5 218 2472 137.97%
4-6 266 2738 168.35%
4-7 806 3544 510.13%
4-8 716 4260 453.16%
4-9 518 4778 327.85%
4-10 651 5429 412.03%
4-11 313 5742 198.10%
4-12 440 6182 278.48%
4-13 1167 7349 738.61%
4-14 556 7905 351.90%
4-15 2462 10367 1558.23%
4-16 1110 11477 702.53%
4-17 1235 12712 781.65%
4-18 528 13240 334.18%
4-19 443 13683 280.38%
4-20 744 14427 470.89%
4-21 565 14992 357.59%
4-22 419 15411 265.19%
4-23 437 15,848 276.58%
4-24 422 16,270 267.09%
4-25 403 16,673 255.06%
4-28 542 17,215 343.04%
4-29 374 17,589 236.71%
4-30 277 17,866 175.32%
5-1 365 18,231 231.01%
5-2 51 18,282 32.28%
5-3 424 18,706 268.35%
5-4 401 19,107 253.80%
5-5 190 19,297 120.25%
5-6 243 19,540 153.80%
5-7 162 19,702 102.53%
5-8 107 19,809
5-9 122 19,931 77.22%
5-11 125 20,056 79.11%
5-12 260 20,316 164.56%

https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-19-deaths-confirmed-probable-daily-05152020.pdf

[SeekAndFind]

RE: This is about the 20th time I have rebutted your ludicrous death count idiocy.

And this is about the 20th time to ask you to deal with the author and NOT me personally. I post to start a discussion. You are free to post your rebuttal, but address your attacks at the one who wrote the article, NOT ME.

[SeekAndFind]

RE: If Covid is not causing these deaths what is, pray tell, my dear SeekandFind Chinese propaganda troll?

OK, riddle me this, how does my posting this article TRANSLATE to my being a Chinese propaganda troll? How did you make such a correlation? If you can’t answer that, then I think you yourself have a feeble mind, not me.

[SeekAndFind]

OK, let me ask you this about the figures you posted.

There may be four types of recorded coronavirus deaths:

(1) deaths only caused by COVID-19 (roughly 3 percent),

(2) deaths in which COVID-19 ended the life of someone already struggling with health conditions,

(3) deaths from other causes but after a patient had tested positive for the virus, and

(4) deaths falsely marked “COVID-19” when there was not even a test.

Deaths of type 1 and 2 are rightly considered coronavirus deaths, while deaths of type 3 are much harder to distinguish from type 2, and deaths of type 4 are completely inflating the numbers.

You also acknowledge that non-covid deaths are higher than normal.

The question to ask is this — in the statistics you cite for NY, HOW MANY PERCENT ARE TYPE 3 and 4? Or is it your contention that their COUNTING is so accurate that everyone of their death counts are 100% Type 1 and 2?

NOTE: I ask you politely and never attacked you personally. My goal is always to get at the truth. I don’t get into motives because unlike what you’re doing to me, I don’t know you personally.

Just deal with my question and THE ISSUE.

[SeekAndFind]

Let me add to what I wrote above so that you and others can help answer the issue that concerns me and other FReepers.

You seem mathematically inclined so I’ll put it in simple math terms.

Let Y be the death toll that is NOT caused by the novel Coronavirus so far.

Let X be the number of deaths due to the novel Coronavirus so far.

Let Y + X = Z

where Z is the total number of deaths in the USA so far.

No honest person will say that Z is a number less than or even equal to the average past value of Y. X after all is NOT zero.

But that is not the issue here.

The question that has cropped up based on the many DOCUMENTED fraudulent cause of death coded ( of which I personally know two of), is this, based on the above equation:

HOW MANY OF THOSE THAT HAVE BEEN COUNTED IN THE X BUCKET, SHOULD REALLY HAVE BEEN IN THE Y BUCKET BASED ON THE 4 CATEGORY TYPES I ENUMERATED IN THE PREVIOUS POST ABOVE?

This is a relevant question given the following reports:

* Dr. Deborah Birx herself questions the CDC CoVid-19 death counts and suspects it might have been inflated by as much as 25%.

* Pennsylvania has had to revise her CoVid-19 death counts downward and move the cause of death to other causes

* Colorado just did the same as Pennsylvania.

* The Illinois Health Department specifically said that they count a death as a CoVid-19 death by default even if it was not clear what caused the death.

* There has not been an accurate estimate of those who died sheltering at home waiting to be treated either for possibly CoVid-19 or other diseases which could not be treated because hospitals have largely been converted to CoVid-19 centers.

* Here in NYC, there are increasing numbers coroners who are questioning the coding of the cause of death in the death certificates as CoVid-19 and many are even refusing to sign them.

I can give you the links to every one of the points I presented above.

Maybe you can answer that question. I will take “I don’t really know” as an answer because at this point in time, that would be my answer.

But if you say you know for sure, please give me your reasons as to why you are so sure.

Nothing personal... just want to get at the truth because it affects whether we can open or continue to be on lockdown.