Posted on 05/10/2020 5:05:55 PM PDT by daniel1212
The actual death toll for COVID-19 won’t be calculable for some time, but there are early indications that it may be significantly lower than calculations of deaths per confirmed cases lead one to believe.
As an article in Lancet Infectious Diseases pointed out, calculating mortality rates based on the number of deaths divided by the number of confirmed cases of infection is not representative of the actual death rate.
There are two issues, the authors said. First, the denominator should be the number of people who were infected at the same time as those who died. The second issue is that many people experienced very mild symptoms and so did not seek medical treatment and were not included in the calculation...
the National Institutes of Health (NIH) launched a 10,000 person study in mid-April. It aims to determine how many adults in the U.S. who do not have a confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19 who have antibodies against the SARS-CoV-2 virus..
“An antibody test is looking back into the immune system’s history with a rear-view mirror,” said Matthew J. Memoli, M.D., M.S., principal investigator of the study and director of NIAID’s Laboratory of Infectious Diseases Clinical Studies Unit. “By analyzing an individual’s blood, we can determine if that person has encountered SARS-CoV-2 previously.”
Results from the NIH study ought to settle the controversy swirling around other similar studies.
Research team determines COVID-19 infection fatality rate by University of Bonn, May 4, 2020
The focus of the study is the infection fatality rate (IFR), which indicates the ratio of deaths in comparison to those infected. The IFR is different to the case fatality rate (CFR). For various reasons, the IFR is considered the more reliable parameter and there is an international demand to have a more accurate understanding of the fatality of SARS-CoV2. "For the first time, our data enables us to estimate how many people have been infected after the superspreading event. Approximately 15 percent of Gangelt had been infected. The total number of infections allows us to determine the infection fatality rate. In Gangelt, the IFR after the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak is 0.37 percent," says lead investigator Prof. Dr. Hendrik Streeck, Director of the Institute for Virology at the University Hospital Bonn....
This number of unreported cases is about 10 times higher than the officially reported cases..
Studies of multi-person households showed that the risk of infecting another person was surprisingly low. "The infection rate in children, adults and elderly is very similar and is apparently not dependent on age," says Prof. Streeck. There are also no significant differences between genders....
A total of 600 randomly selected households in Gangelt were written to and asked to participate in the study. - https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-05-team-covid-infection-fatality.html
The best stat would be folks who entered a hospital with symptoms and test positive. All other stats are created.
Let's go with that, even though it's probably lower.
That answer remains meaningless in terms of how societies should behave until it's mixed with demographics - age and less so race and socioeconomic status.
If a company is made of 80% under 50 yrs of age people and the IFR for the healthy ones in that population is .002 or something, and maybe a few those of those are compromised by health issues or have little risk tolerance, then get 75% of the company back to their damn work and let the demographics that are at risk remain isolated!
This is absolute lunacy! Let people choose their risk now that we know the health system is nowhere near getting overwhelmed.
Yes. They really moved the goal posts on us.
At the beginning, the message seemed to be -- Do your patriotic duty! Stay healthy! Isolate yourself! Don't be the patient that overwhelms your local hospital and causes our healthcare system to collapse!
That just quietly morphed into -- Be afraid! All the time! Say goodbye to anything like normal life! Hide! Hide! Hide! Things will never be the same ever again!
Now if you are getting federal dollars for each Covid-19 patient the mortality rate will be higher than expected.
Since the NIH's more fine-tuned methodology is certain to wind up lowering the measurement of the Wu-Flu's lethality--and thereby lowering the apparent need for blind panic--I presume we'll be seeing hit pieces denouncing the NIH in the fake-news media by tomorrow. Certainly the governors of Michigan and New York will be called for comment, and instructed what to say.
And I guess it would also be fair to predict we'll hear from Fauci and Gates singing the same tune by end-of-day Monday.
No. That ignores anyone who was infected and recovered without intervention. The ratio you describe is a key ingredient in a plandemic (or dempanic).
The deaths per confirmed cases were skewed to the high. In the beginning testing criteria was for symtomatic folks only. Then second week of April the fda changed the derinition of positve.
It goes beyond just “be afraid!” Now it’s become, “if you’re NOT afraid, you’re spreading the virus and killing other people! You’re evil!”
So the panic-stricken are now looking at the non-panic-strickem, and seeing THEM as the source of the problem. It’s going to get ugly.
(1) Test blood samples that were obtained at blood donation centers weeks or even months before COVID-19 became widespread.
(2) Compare the curve of the “test confirmed” infection rate in each state. Early testing was performed only on high risk individuals - on those with known exposure, with a recent travel history, or with obvious flu-like symptoms. On the USA west coast, the test confirmed infection rate never went over 9%. In New York state, the confirmed infection rate was above 30% for weeks!
The CDC needs the national infection rate to be about 5% in order to validate its wildly wrong mathematical death models.
Data from the two sources above indicate that the national infection rate is at least 10% - and probably higher.
If the national infection rate is 10% or higher, then COVID-19 is no more deadly than seasonal influenza - except in the New York City metropolitan area.
Yep. I saw a women out today walking wearing a mask, shield and gloves. These are the types screaming “close everything, cancel everything!” it won;t be safe to got to a movie, concert, restaurant, etc. as it will be impossible to “social distance” and people will die.
No, not as a IFR, since what you recommend would only provide a Case Fatality Rate which would be very high (and is what we usually see) since it overall only tests the most sick, versus an Infection Fatality Rate, that of deaths per infections regardless of symptoms.
The lesson is, do not look to government as if it is God.
Most likely the headlines will be that of deaths not being counted, someplace.
The political effects of that are part of the problem for the MSM.
So the panic-stricken are now looking at the non-panic-strickem, and seeing THEM as the source of the problem. It’s going to get ugly.
I'm seeing exactly this on some of the FB forums I belong to. They try to make it sound like you said; that anyone who doesn't quarantine is the bad guy because he "might" spread an active virus.
My reply to their nonsense is simple and direct. I tell them they prefer to kill everyone with a crashed economy; no thanks.
That usually ends the conversation because there isn't a comeback to "killing everyone". If everyone is destitute and homeless then even their fancy pensions go broke so then they go broke, hungry, and possibly homeless.
At that point this damn virus craziness will seem like the good old days.
The consequences of all we have done are unpredictable. But the economic contagion has barely even begun. What happens when people and businesses can’t pay their rent? What are restaurants supposed to do when they re-open at 30%-50% max capacity even assuming people will want to go out to eat anytime soon. What happens to discretionary spending and the industries that support them?
Unemployment numbers will be high for years to come.
For lease signs will pop up all over the country.
Evictions.
Bankruptcies.
Foreclosures.
Repossessions.
State seizures for nonpayment of taxes.
No wonder Congress doesn’t want to get back to work. They can’t fix what they just wrecked.
The other problem not mentioned in the OP is that you can’t count the mortality rate when the numbers of unresolved cases remain so high. There are 1 million+ known cases, the death rate of these cases could fall substantially due to changes in treatment.
Of course, we have no idea the numbers of infected who were never tested. We can’t even be sure the anti-body tests are accurate at this stage; some of the tests are looking for CV antibodies but not necessarily Sars-Cov-2 antibodies.
Not discussed is the money aspect. There is money being given to hospitals for positive diagnoses, for CV related admissions, for numbers of people put on ventilators etc. The money influences the decisions made in the field. That changes outcomes too. 80% of people put on ventilators die in NYC. Nobody questions whether this is even an appropriate treatment and the evidence seems to suggest it is not. Seems to me what the most sick people need is oxygen, not ventilators per se.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.