Posted on 05/07/2020 3:33:03 AM PDT by DoughtyOne
PING LIST - Please contact me as needed...
COVID-19 Update
As of 05/06/2020 23:45 PDST Johns Hopkins University - Capture Nations Informaton
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST Johns Hopkins University - Capture Counties Informaton
As of 00/00/2020 23:46 PDST Johns Hopkins University - Process JHU Data
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST WorldofMeters - Document Core Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST WorldofMeters - Capture Nations Informaton
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST WorldofMeters - Capture States Informaton
As of 00/00/2020 00:00 PDST WorldofMeters - Data Processing begins...
As of 00/00/2020 ??:?? PDST Publish COVID-19 Update - 00/00/00
Thank you for stopping by to check out the COVID-19 Update.
Here you can find...
Section: 01 Commentary, Special Reports, COVID-19 Update Info, & System Notes
Section: 02 the United States Situation
Section: 03 the Global Community Situation Outside China
Section: 04 the Global Community Situation Including China with reservations
Section: 05 the Mortality Report
Section: 06 Miscellanious Reports of Interest
Section: 07 the United States, Counties (alphabetical / case no descending)
Section: 08 the United States, States Ranked with the Other States Territories at Bottom
Section: 09 the United States, Ranked with Other Nations
Section: 10 the End of this COVID-19 Update
Section: 11 Data Sources and a Link to My Own Spreadsheet
Section: 12 Link to Spreadsheet: Our Counties, States, Territories, & Other Nations
Section: 13 Links to Other Resources
Section: 01
Commentary, Special Reports, and COVID-19 Update Information8
Interesting Tid-bits (hopefully)
Bright Spots
I try to watch the numbers in various areas to see if there are any
trends that look promising. I've noticed a few bright spots. First
I'll address two 'not so bright spots'.
Cases and Fatalities
Cases have grown at their fastest rates for each day of the last four
days. We seem primed to come very close to, or break our larget days
of new Cases. Fatalities although not at record levels, are still
in the upper range, not all that far off from record days.
I can't help but observe that this may be related to a relaxing of the
Shelter in Place program. Folks, I've voiced opinons on both sides of
this issue. On the one hand, our economy cannot remain shut down. We
have to get back out there. Will this cause elevated cases and deaths?
I think so. That does not mean that I don't think we should open up.
We have to.
Although some areas are opening up, and it's too early to impact Cases
and Fatalities, the rub here is that I think folks were violating the
lock-down at an ever increasing rate. These figures we're seeing may
reveal that. I certainly can't prove it. It seems a reasoned
thought.
We're opening up. That's what we have to do. We couldn't avoid
it forever.
Cases and Fatalities
Globally, Resolved Cases came in at 65,057 yesterday. This prevented
the 92,652 new cases from being fully applied to the number of active
cases. Of those 92,652 new Cases, only 27,595 new cases were added
to our already active cases. That was the highest one day total of
resolved cases.
If those remain this high, and the new Cases slips a little, we'll be
reducing the number of active cases. I don't expect that to happen
soon, but it all depends on the numbers of resolved cases that continue
to be reported. That number yesterday was a good sign.
Percentage of Cases Resolved
I've been pointing to this categore for the last three weeks or so. On
04/03 we dropped to the lowest point for this categore, 25.534%.
Yesterday we slipped over 41.000%. I mention this because at some
point this percentage will grow to the point that our number of
active cases will begin to drop. Fewer Cases, fewer deaths...
We are probably a few weeks before that begins to happen, but it
is going to happen as long as things don't go haywire on us.
What if I were to tell you, this is already happening? Well, day to
day it isn't yet, but I take readings more than once per day.
Yesterday the number of Global cases went down on one report work-up.
In the Global outside China category, it went down on the second and
third report work-ups. For the United States our number of Active
Cases also dropped on the 2nd and 3rd reports of the day.
This was caused by the way they report the numbers, but these are
some of the indicators to look for. We're making progress. Don't
totally dismiss it.
Granted, the numbers of Active Cases still continued to climb for
the day in all three categories.
Mortality Rates
I do not report out my calculations on Mortality Rates very often
because during the wild growth stages, recoveries simply cannot keep
up. The Mortaily Rates wind up coming in wildly high. At some point
they do become handy in that they are a marker that can show
improvement. Right now they are.
On 03/07, my mortality rate figures were dropping rapidly... and that
ended as the Global outside China cases started blowing up. On that
date the rate had dropped to 5.65%. Be advised, this was all based on
China's declarations. None of us thought those were real, but I was
able to watch the numbers and realize what things to look for months
later, when the Global community outside China was recovering. The
Mortality Rates would be telling.
I calculate the mortality rate based on resolved cases. I add the
fatalities and recoveries together, and then divide the fatilities
by that total. This has been challenged by folks who stated, that
they didn't think recoveries were being reported accurately. (or at
all in some instances) I think they had a point. That's another
reason why I don't hang my hat on these numbers. Still, they are
another indicator.
On 04/08, the Global Mortality rate had climbed up to 21.59%.
Yesterday that figure stood at 16.90%. If as folks suggested that
Recoveries were not being reported accurately, that makes this
drop all that much more revealing.
In the Global community outside Mainland China, the Mortality Rate
had risen to 33.10% on 03/20. Yesterday that number stood at 17.53%.
In the United States that number had risen to 40.7% on 04/10.
Yesterday it stood at 25.98%.
Please don't not get the idea these Mortality Rates are valid for
anything more than indicators. I've said this over and over
deaths come in way before recoveries, and we should not use these
to extrapolate what real scientific death rates will be.
We have seen progress in this area also. Just wanted to mention it.
Slice of the Global outside China Cases Pie
We have seen our growth here start to drop for the first time.
Our slice of the global Case load is going down by a very tiny
amount. It's still in the right direction.
Cases Per Population Segment Are Slowing
We are dropping in the numbers of people per case of COVID-19 in
each segment. We dropped just four people yesterday, the smallest
drop yet.
Summation
The take away from all this, is that we are seeing glimmers of hope
in the numbers. I can't say they'll continue to move in the
directions they are, but right now things are looking better.
Section: 02
The Following Addresses the Numbers Here in
the United States of America
Here we go...
The volume of our new cases went up again yesterday. There were
on 657 more than the day before, but more is more. We're looking
for less.
Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active Cases, and
Serious/Critical Cases in the United States
Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Crital here, courtesy of amorphous
Here's more of our numbers...
Fatalities went up more, and I'll address that below. The nice thing
here is that rise in resolved cases. The vast majority of them are
recoveries, and this plays off against the new cases, so that the
rise in active cases is less than it would be otherwise. Here we
see about 10,500 new cases. Looking up the line we can see much
larger examples of growth. One of these days there won't be daily
growth any longer, but that's still a ways off. It is coming.
Our Slice of the COVID-19 Pie
The growth of our Slice of the Pie still keeps growing...
Here are the numbers I've been tracking, Globale Declared and Active Cases.
This was the third day in a row where both categories here dropped. It's
still touch and go here. I'd like to see the drop excellerate. It will.
Section: 03
The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
without Mainland China
Here is the first set of Data for the Global Outside China
Territories
Once again, we see a very large day in the declaration of new cases.
this was the fourth day of record growth. The next couple of days
should be interesting. Will they both be record days, or are we
about to see a switch in direction? It will probably be the former
over the latter.
This will be touched on again in the area where we highlight the case
reported on the different days of the week. There you can visually see
very clearly how each of the last four days have had record cases
reported.
Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active Cases, and
Serious/Critical Cases - Globally, Excluding M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Crital here, courtesy of amorphous
Here we go...
We had over 65,000 Resolved cases yesterday Globally outside China. These
limited the Active Case growth to around 27,600 cases.
How is the Global Community Outside China Doing,
Without U. S. numbers?
Well, a little better yesterday...
The big growth in new Cases took play outside the U. S. today, in the
Global outside China areas.
The valley for this week, isn't exactly a valley. We're facing
some pretty brutal numbers Globally outside China. Our growth
has been noticable, but not near reord breaking.
Growth, particularely for us (the Blue stacks) has gone down.
For your review...
Special Section on France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the U. K.
Case growth.
Lets Look at Some Numbers in Five Day Increments:
The same comments fit for about each day here.
The one big move going on right now, is the U. K. and it's growth in
cases. It's rise in Fatalities is also troubling. It's set to bypass
Italy in Cases within about 36 hours. Lets hope it doesn't do the
same in the number of DPM.
Sweden and It's Neighbors, Who Has the Best Tactic Againt COVID-19?
Sweeden is doing their own thing with regard to isolating. I think most people
are aware of it by now.
Here are some numbers to help us look at this issue.
There's not much new to talk about regarding Sweden, so review the
data and the chart. The chart become less helpful has we see the
per million Case level.
Section: 04
The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
including Mainland China*
Mainland China's numbers are 0.01% of today's total global numbers.
A Look at Declared, Resolved, and Active Cases, Includes M/L China
End of day figures follow:
There, we made it to a 40% rate of Declared Cases now resolved. 50% is
in our near future. This number will likely grown for short term at least
Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active, and Serious/Crical
Cases Globally, Including M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Crital here, courtesy of amorphous
Not much to say here. Big numbers getting bigger...!
Section: 05
the Mortality Report
Making an effort to provide more mortality numbers these days.
Hopefully these upcoming numbers and charts will help with that.
Our numbers are big enough that they can hide the finer nuances of the
Global numbers outside China. For that reason, I strip our numbers off
that group and report them separately for this area of study.
Here are the figures for the growing case totals for four entities.
Here's the chart to go along with those figures.
Looks pretty ominious there doesn't it.
Here are figures revealing the daily growth for those four entities.
Our respit from large Fatality days is over. Yesterday's 2,534
was the third highest yet, and it tied for that distinction with
the figures from 04/17. On 04/21 we had a 2,825 day. The figure
on 04/16 was solely drive by New York's fiasco, so I won't use
that for comparison.
I really don't like seeing our number there that close to the
number of all Fatalities Globally not counting the U. S. or China's
numbers. Yikes!
Here's two charts to go with the above data.
Not real thrilled with much of anything today.
Here, lets look at data for the U. S. broken out by itself.
Those percentages of increased Fatalities look small, but when they
are playing off other big numbers, it amounts to quite a bit. I do
hope we are spared a big Thurday and Friday this week.
Hey, that's the wrong direction!
Section: 06
Population Saturation
Here are figures revealing how many people in each population base represent one case.
I'm also showing what percent of each population base is infected at this time.
While we are slipping a bit more each day here, that slippage does seem
to be slowing. For now, that's about the only good thing.
Nations With Lots of Cases
At the end of the day yesterday, there were:
That's a whole lot of nations there. With over 1,000 in each one, we know
that over time they are potential declared cases time-bombs.
Daily Case Report Evaluation
I'll be keeping tabs on the daily tallies for days of the week for a while. Folks have
noticed some patterns of larger and smaller data entry on certaind days, and on Fridays
sometimes the numbers get noticably larger because of it.
And we now know Thurdays have potential to break out also. Yikes!
Let's check out the numbers and a chart.
If you look at the stack on the right of Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, and
now Wednesday, you'll see that we had record Cases declared each of
those days.
Tuesday and Wednesday's slope, seems to aim squarely at the highest
numbers we've seen yet in daily growth. Fingers crossed...
Section: 07
The Top 200 Counties in the U. S., by Number of Cases
This little report lists 200 Counties in the United States in declining Case numbers.
There is also a listing that is alphabetical. This report list only the entities
and the number of Cases in the two different sorts.
It will also be available as a downloadable Excel file in Section 12.
Section: 08
States of the Union and the District of Columbia, Compared to Each Other
Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
Some interesting figures there for various segments.
Section: 09
The United States, Where it Ranks With Other Natons?
Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.
The U. S. will be highlighted red here so we can find it easily in the list.
There were 212 nations on this list last night now. I didn't want to post
seven lists with 212 nations on it, so I picked the top 50. Coincidentally,
one report category has the U. S. at 41st, so it wasn't showing up on the
list with 31 top spots on it. That wasn't the reason why I extended the
list length, but it did work out well.
I work on the nations right next to the states on my spreadsheet. The
states with the Disctrict of Columbia come in at a total of 51 lines.
I decided to keep the international reports near that length, and 50
was good enough.
Here we go... for your review.
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
Wow! What happened. This is the lowest we've been since I started
watching this area more closely. Maybe we can break into the 30s
soon.
Section: 10
Here's what it's all about. From January 20th to the present.
This concludes our look back at yesterday's data. Take care...
Section: 11
Data for this Report Sourced From:
LINK Johns Hopkins University
The Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE)
LINK WorldoMeters
LINK You are Invited to Review My COVID-19 Spreadsheet (XLSX)
There is not an XLS version available for distribution at this time.
Section: 12
Other Features:
LINK US Counties200, States & DC51, Territories & Other Entities11, and Nations214
Four Excel Spreadsheet datasets you can sort for your own studies...
Section: 13
Links to other resources:
I cannot vouch for these sites. Please use your own discression.
LINK Adventist Health Coronavirus Resource Hub - Scroll down for useful info
LINK Antibiotic Vitamin, the (Vitamin D)
Good article on Vitamin D's likely role in prevention of infection. Thanks Blam.
LINK CDC Data for Download - Scroll down - Excel required. Includes death stats.
LINK CDC National Center for Health Services
Provisional deaths as determined by review of vital documents. Much lower...
LINK CDC Secondary Data and Statistics - Portal Entry / Look around
LINK Coronavirus (COVID-19) Map
LINK Coronavirus infection risk may be reduced by Vitamin D
by Former CDC Chief Dr. Tom Frieden
LINK Coronavirus Spread Quickly Around the Word in Late 2019, Study Shows
the University College London Genetics Institute
LINK COVID-19 First U.S. Case, Treatment, features Remdesivir
New England Journal of Medicine article
LINK Cytokine Storm, med Actemra, Physician near death saved
LINK Diamond Princess Review at 634 Case Point of Eventual 712
LINK Hydroxychloroquine Article: International Poll
Daily Mail Reports, Most Effective Treatment According to 6,000 Physicians
LINK Hydroxychloroquine Has about 90 Percent Chance of Helping COVID-19 Patients
the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons, reports 91.6% of patients improved clinically
LINK IHME - Institute for Health Matrix and Evaluation
LINK National Institutes of Health - Cornavirus (COVID-19)
LINK Nasal Irrigation is the Key, COVID-19 Related
LINK New York City - interesting breakdown, burough, age, sex
LINK On the Origin of CCP Virus, A Documentary Movie (turn up the sound)
Epoch Times: I highly recommend this very well documented report.
LINK Rt COVID-19
Calculates and displays the Rt Factor for each state. Thanks FreedomPoster.
LINK World Health Organization
They also have reports from ILI-net.
Pretty much universal in the US.
Most helpful IMO. I remember Birx recommended it a while ago.
I think it is the predominant metric states are using for their reopening.
May also be the first indicator of an uptick in infections.
Despite the effect of inducements, it’s hard to believe covid deaths are being overreported with all the unaccounted for excess deaths.
A site reporting positivity rates of testing in US.
Click on a state’s name to see up-to-date historical info.
Still a little early to be reliable (some places not enough testing) but should be very helpful soon.
Some craziness in the chart below from their report. Opposite of CV. Many more CV victims dying at home too.
I think it is the predominant metric states are using for their reopening. May also be the first indicator of an uptick in infections.
So why should they stop f'ning up now? Don't trust government - ANY government.
Despite the effect of inducements, it’s hard to believe covid deaths are being overreported with all the unaccounted for excess deaths.
Don't know. Maybe they're not.
While crunching some numbers this morning I ran across projection I had made on Texas on 23 April. Pretty close for today. I think we still have a problem and I think the problem is getting worse for the US as a whole. Maybe better in some states. Some are the same. I hope everyone continues wearing their PPE and using good prevention measures. We're not out of the woods yet, and this ain't over by a long shot.
Yeah, national statistics hide the problem by the influence of dropping rates from the high-population hot spots.
The rest of the US is surging or plateauing- but with low population.
In my rural county the count hasn’t changed since a week ago when they set up drive-in testing and found a couple. They haven’t come back so asymptomatics are not being found. LOL! In fact none have been found.
Testing is still spotty across the country.
(Also, people may be avoiding going to the hospital or doctor from fear of being infected).
Metrics based on deaths have been the best, but they lag by 2 or more weeks what’s actually going on. Hoping other metrics improve.
Just realized I’m on your thread.
Very good info from you!
But... (there’s always a “but”) more testing = more cases.
Would help if you accounted for that.
I've discovered case numbers are actually pretty darn accurate. And only lag about 4 days from actual time someone acquired the virus.
Below are two charts where I have offset the case date by 14 days forward to sync with fatalities. Top chart is for the US, bottom is Italy's numbers. We're twice as worse off as Italy, but Italy is ahead of us in dealing with CV by about two weeks. It's worrisome to me how our numbers seemed to have plateaued. Look how closely case numbers and fatality numbers track - especially in Italy's case. Mismatch in ending US deaths may be due to NY again dumping nursing home deaths into the bucket. Otherwise, US numbers may have tracked as well as Italy's.
Case numbers are a good indicator of how we're doing. Fatality numbers are an even better indicator, and the fastest indicator of effective treatments and cures.
But case numbers depend on testing.
That’s why I’m looking for positivity rates to, soon, be reliable indicators.
I don’t have a good understanding of what a “case” is, and it likely varies. But from the numbers, I can tell whatever it is - guessing its when someone sees a doctor or goes to the hospital - it’s accurate; far too accurate to be testing as is currently being done, but admit I could be wrong.
Below is our case index graph. We seem to have plateaued. Barring more efficacious treatments, or a cure, the number of those dying from CV will track these numbers after a period of about two weeks - guaranteed. Those represented where infected about 4 days prior, on average.
Don’t agree that cases- a metric which is dependent upon testing- are accurate enough yet.
But, yeah, only treatments which affect deaths is important now.
Except for idiots that willfully get themselves infected by close contact with asymptomatlcs and symptomatics.
I need to research “cases”. To satisfy my own need to know, if no other reason.
?ou can’t have a case without a test, from what I’ve seen.
And tests are variable.
At least, “living” ones.
After they die I have no idea of their classifisation.
But that’s not germane.
But you can have a test without a case. And there are those who test positive who never go to the doc or hospital. So I’m not too sure what the exact definition of a case is in this case - but it does seem to be accurate - and you could be right. If get the opportunity I’m going to research the matter further.
If you want to go to that length, It’s appreciated- but unnecaesary.
I don’t think you can have a “case” without a test, except after death.
In conclusion, I think I'm right in my assumption that the great majority of cases, as reported, are symptomatic suffers who present for medical treatment. It's what CDC and other agencies around the world strive to use as a definition of those cases used to determine case fatality rates, not only for CV, but for influenza as well.
Daily fatality index:
Case index offset for daily fatality index - deaths follow over time, barring cure or more efficacious treatment:
Trump up now.
“Testing” is a good subject to address. Media overblowing it’s importance , and overblowing it’s problems.
But it’s useful.
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