It factors in where it always should have. We all knew there
were games being played. This is how you eliminate those
games.
You look at the death certificates and make an honest
evaluation. You don’t just say, “Oops, too bad about the
kidneys, another COVID-19 victim.”
I’m pretty tough on the CDC for not getting ready when it
knew this was coming. This doesn’t bother me so much.
It’s them coming along and doing something they should do.
When things are reported to you, you take the reports at
face value. Then later on you try to verify what is
being reported to you. When you can’t, you make it public.
Does this give the folks who want to reopen more ammo?
Sure it does. The mortality rates are much lower than we
were told they were going to be, by people who were told
themselves the rates would be astronomical.
This is why YOU NEVER buy into all the hype up front.
Every little video clip from China that showed something
bad was thought of by some as “having to be true”. Well
we sure didn’t see the sorts of things they supposedly
did.
All the hype did was make our leaders afraid not to go
ballistic about preventative measures.
The next one of these to come along, I hope a lot of people
will tell the worry warts to shut the hell up.
People had no idea if what they were scaring everyone with
was true or not. It really screwed us all over in the end.
Our leaders had no choice with the public scared to death.
No, it’s not exactly the flue. Still, just like many of
us said, the numbers look a lot like flu numbers, and we
don’t shut down for the flu.
I’ve been willing to play devil’s advocate. What if we
open up and many more die. It’s a fair question. If the
37,000 figure is accurate, we should open up.
This is nonsensical at this point
the numbers look a lot like flu numbers,
...WITH heavy handed mitigation applied sooner in the spread than China's clampdown.
(Our mitigation was less "heavy" than China's, but despite some CDC screw-ups we acted sooner. Past a certain point, timing is even more critical than mitigation level in the initial explosive spread. If you mitigate too late, nothing saves the already fatally infected people.)
I'd also point out that at best we are only in the COVID-19 2nd inning, and certainly headed to 80k+ fatalities by June 1. 100k by 6/1 would not surprise me if the weather does not cooperate, and, the Central and Eastern US look to be mostly cooler than normal for the next couple weeks. Drat!
Our COVID-19 mitigation had the not insignificant effect of stomping the heck out of our flu season. I think flipping that around can give some idea where COVID-19 was headed.
Consider even Sweden's approach applied to NYC's less healthy population and density / mingling... I'm pretty darn sure U.S.N.S. Mercy would on May 4 be very very busy...
Given the economic destruction (including mine!!! - but I also have vulnerable family members), it is hard for me to say what is "right". It's Kobayashi Maru.