the numbers look a lot like flu numbers,
...WITH heavy handed mitigation applied sooner in the spread than China's clampdown.
(Our mitigation was less "heavy" than China's, but despite some CDC screw-ups we acted sooner. Past a certain point, timing is even more critical than mitigation level in the initial explosive spread. If you mitigate too late, nothing saves the already fatally infected people.)
I'd also point out that at best we are only in the COVID-19 2nd inning, and certainly headed to 80k+ fatalities by June 1. 100k by 6/1 would not surprise me if the weather does not cooperate, and, the Central and Eastern US look to be mostly cooler than normal for the next couple weeks. Drat!
Our COVID-19 mitigation had the not insignificant effect of stomping the heck out of our flu season. I think flipping that around can give some idea where COVID-19 was headed.
Consider even Sweden's approach applied to NYC's less healthy population and density / mingling... I'm pretty darn sure U.S.N.S. Mercy would on May 4 be very very busy...
Given the economic destruction (including mine!!! - but I also have vulnerable family members), it is hard for me to say what is "right". It's Kobayashi Maru.
I find myself taking both sides of this issue, depending on
the conversation and where anyone is presenting it.
I know that sounds like flip-flopping, it’s a risk I’m
willing to take.
I want these issues to be considered. Is this like the flu?
Is it not winding up to have a body count more like the flu?
The CDC just completed a review of the cases through 04/25,
and found that the actual death toll at that point was
37,000 and change. That compares to the 54,000 and change
(or close to it) that was being presented by WorldoMeters
and Johns Hopkins University on that date.
So while your argument is somewhat sound, and I’m am
sympathetic to it, to a point, I’m not sure that’s going
to hold up in the end.
The question is, will that 81k actually be 81k, or will
it be more like 53k? I don’t know.
I’m also having a hard time buying into the mitigation
saving us idea, since we’ve been in lock down for so long
and we’re still seeing massive new cases.
Doesn’t look like much of a lock down to me. I live on
the edge of a foothill in SoCal, and I have a birds eye
on traffic. There’s a steady stream of it.
Obviously we don’t have everyone working and going to
school, so I think you have a valid arguement, but it sure
does make me think.