Posted on 04/30/2020 2:11:33 AM PDT by DoughtyOne
PING LIST - Please contact me as needed...
COVID-19 Update
As of 04/29/2020 23:45 PDST Johns Hopkins University - Capture Nations Informaton
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST Johns Hopkins University - Capture Counties Informaton
As of 00/00/2020 23:46 PDST Johns Hopkins University - Process JHU Data
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST WorldofMeters - Document Core Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST WorldofMeters - Capture Nations Informaton
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST WorldofMeters - Capture States Informaton
As of 00/00/2020 00:00 PDST WorldofMeters - Data Processing begins...
As of 00/00/2020 ??:?? PDST Publish COVID-19 Update - 00/00/00
Thank you for stopping by to check out the COVID-19 Update.
Here you can find...
Section: 01 Commentary, Special Reports, COVID-19 Update Info, & System Notes
Section: 02 the United States Situation
Section: 03 the Global Community Situation Outside China
Section: 04 the Global Community Situation Including China with reservations
Section: 05 the Mortality Report
Section: 06 Miscelanious Reports of Interest
Section: 07 the United States, Counties (alphabetical / case no descending)
Section: 08 the United States, States Ranked with the Other States Territories at Bottom
Section: 09 the United States, Ranked with Other Nations
Section: 10 the End of this COVID-19 Update
Section: 11 Data Sources and a Link to My Own Spreadsheet
Section: 12 Link to Spreadsheet: Our Counties, States, Territories, & Other Nations
Section: 13 Links to Other Resources
Section: 01
Commentary, Special Reports, and COVID-19 Update Information1
Interesting Tid-bits (hopefully)
Global Recoveries
Global Recoveries topped one million cases yesterday.
COVID-19 Update Dashboard
I decided to add a small data dashboard to the opening of the Updates.
You probably tripped over it on the say in. Hope you're alright...
Section: 02
The Following Addresses the Numbers Here in
the United States of America
Okay, you should probably smile a little less today.
It's actually kind of a mixed bag. We are up from a few days ago, but
then down decently from last week. Here comes Thursday and Friday...
Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active Cases, and
Serious/Critical Cases in the United States
Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Crital here, courtesy of amorphous
Here's more of our numbers...
We had over 2,400 fatalities yesterday. That's not good. We'll see
more about that down in the Mortality Report Section
Our Slice of the COVID-19 Pie
The growth of our Slice of the Pie has been slowing. On the 16th it actaully
went netative for one report row on my spread-sheet. Luckily it was the EOD
figure so you could see it.
Here are the numbers I've been tracking, Globale Declared and Active Cases.
It pains me to see these numbers grow larger.
Section: 03
The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
without Mainland China
Here is the first chart for the Global Outside China Territories
Well, we did see a rise here, just like in the U. S. I'm thinking we
may see some big numbers on Thursday and Friday. Hope not.
Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active Cases, and
Serious/Critical Cases - Globally, Excluding M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Crital here, courtesy of amorphous
Here we go...
Over 10k fatalities yesterday. That's a massive number.
How is the Global Community Outside China Doing,
Without U. S. numbers?
Well, not too good yesterday...
Still edging up. Not liking this neighborhood.
There it is, that typical cyclical increase at this stage of the
week.
Just be glad that first chart wasn't your brain wave. You'd
have some loose teeth. Another day, another pattern starting
to play out like the last few weeks.
Special Section on France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the U. K.
Case growth.
Lets Look at Some Numbers in Five Day Increments:
The same comments fit for about each day here.
Germany has been able to keep their deaths down. Nice job...
Both France and Germany have somehow altered thier trajectory
to a better outcome. Looks like the U. K. is about to pass
them by.
Sweden and It's Neighbors, Who Has the Best Tactic Againt COVID-19?
Sweeden is doing their own thing with regard to isolating. I think most people
are aware of it by now.
Here are some numbers to help us look at this issue.
As a good adendum to these figures, I invite folks to check out the
international comparisons, with regard to Deaths Per Million. As with
any metrics here, these are not the total answer to anything. This
is simply more information to consider.
Again today, Sweden looks good compared to larger nations in Europe.
Their neighbors have keep their cases and fatalities down by comparison.
Sweden still looks very competitive against France, Italy, Spain, and
the U. K. Now I don't have a problem with comparing Sweden with the
other Nordic countries, where it doesn't come off well. It still holds
it's own against other top rank nations that have locked down. I'm
not rabidly pro or con when it comes to what Sweden is doing, but I do
find myself defending it more than I really want to, based on what I
see as pointed criticism that isn't exactly reasoned > IMO.
Finland is still looking good.
One more thing about Sweden here. However Sweden ultimately turns out,
I think it is the canary in the coal mine. We all have wondered what
would have happened if we had gone their route. I'm glad to see at
least one nation giving it a go, to satisfy what I believe to the
curiosity of many of us.
Section: 04
The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
including Mainland China*
Mainland China's numbers are 0.03% of today's total global numbers.
A Look at Declared, Resolved, and Active Cases, Includes M/L China
End of day figures follow:
That recovery percentage continues to climb. It looks like we're headed to
40% and above in the next few days.
Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active, and Serious/Crical
Cases Globally, Including M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Crital here, courtesy of amorphous
Not much to say here. Big numbers getting bigger...!
Section: 05
the Mortality Report
Making an effort to provide more mortality numbers these days.
Hopefully these upcoming numbers and charts will help with that.
Our numbers are big enough that they can hide the finer nuances of the
Global numbers outside China. For that reason, I strip our numbers off
that group and report them separately for this area of study.
Here are the figures for the growing case totals for four entities.
Here's the chart to go along with those figures.
Looks pretty ominious there doesn't it.
Here are figures revealing the daily growth for those four entities.
The numbers fell off considerably for two days. We're back up now.
hopefully lower case increases, will make for lower fatalities down
the road.
We remain down a bit, but it's not the big move I had hoped it wold be, and tomorrow and Friday, who knows?
Here's two charts to go with the above data.
We don't look terrible there, but the global figures are
troublesome.
Here, lets look at data for the U. S. broken out by itself.
Well, I guess we should be thankful these numbers weren't higher
coming off some very low days. There is some brighter spots in these
numbers. Other entities have faired a little better than us.
Level yesterday to the day before, but I had hoped it would happen
at a lower level.
Section: 06
Population Saturation
Here are figures revealing how many people in each population base represent one case.
I'm also showing what percent of each population base is infected at this time.
This area looked quite a bit better the day before yesterday. Back to
normal here. Ug...
Nations With Lots of Cases
At the end of the day yesterday, there were:
That's a whole lot of nations there. With over 1,000 in each one, we know
that over time they are potential declared cases time-bombs.
Daily Case Report Evaluation
I'll be keeping tabs on the daily tallies for days of the week for a while. Folks have
noticed some patterns of larger and smaller data entry on certaind days, and on Fridays
sometimes the numbers get noticably larger because of it.
And we now know Thurdays have potential to break out also. Yikes!
Let's check out the numbers and a chart.
Well, here comes Thursday and Friday. Keep an eye on the right green
stacks coming across there. You can see Tuesday and Wednesday already.
Section: 07
The Top 200 Counties in the U. S., by Number of Cases
This little report lists 200 Counties in the United States in declining Case numbers.
There is also a listing that is alphabetical. This report list only the entities
and the number of Cases in the two different sorts.
It will also be available as a downloadable Excel file in Section 12.
Section: 08
States of the Union and the District of Columbia, Compared to Each Other
Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
Some interesting figures there for various segments.
Section: 09
The United States, Where it Ranks With Other Natons?
Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.
The U. S. will be highlighted red here so we can find it easily in the list.
There were 212 nations on this list last night now. I didn't want to post
seven lists with 212 nations on it, so I picked the top 50. Coincidentally,
one report category has the U. S. at 41st, so it wasn't showing up on the
list with 31 top spots on it. That wasn't the reason why I extended the
list length, but it did work out well.
I work on the nations right next to the states on my spreadsheet. The
states with the Disctrict of Columbia come in at a total of 51 lines.
I decided to keep the international reports near that length, and 50
was good enough.
Here we go... for your review.
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
For your review...
Section: 10
Here's what it's all about. From January 20th to the present.
This concludes our look back at yesterday's data. Take care...
Section: 11
Data for this Report Sourced From:
LINK Johns Hopkins University
The Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE)
LINK WorldoMeters
LINK You are Invited to Review My COVID-19 Spreadsheet (XLSX)
There is not an XLS version available for distribution at this time.
Section: 12
Other Features:
LINK US Counties200, States & DC51, Territories, & Other Entities11, and Nations212
Four Excel Spreadsheet datasets you can sort for your own studies...
Section: 13
Links to other resources:
I cannot vouch for these sites. Please use your own discression.
LINK Adventist Health Coronavirus Resource Hub - Scroll down for useful info
LINK CDC Data for Download - Scroll down - Excel required. Includes death stats.
LINK CDC Secondary Data and Statistics - Portal Entry / Look around
LINK Coronavirus (COVID-19) Map
LINK COVID-19 First U.S. Case, Treatment, features Remdesivir
New England Journal of Medicine article
LINK Cytokine Storm, med Actemra, Physician near death saved
LINK Diamond Princess Review at 634 Case Point of Eventual 712
LINK earlyAlert
LINK Hydroxychloroquine Article: International Poll
Daily Mail Reports, Most Effective Treatment According to 6,000 Physicians
LINK IHME - Institute for Health Matrix and Evaluation
LINK National Institutes of Health - Cornavirus (COVID-19)
LINK Nazal Irrigation is the Key, COVID-19 Related
LINK New York City - interesting breakdown, burough, age, sex
LINK On the Origin of CCP Virus, A Documentary Movie (turn up the sound)
Epoch Times: I highly recommend this very well documented report.
LINK World Health Organization
I can see where the Docs could have some fun with the new blood when the young Drs try to figure something out.
It’s the entire reason to be an “old doc” in an academic setting. Your job is 100% to bully the young ones and motivate them to learn.
bttt
On Wednesday April 1 I began tracking the number of ‘serious, critical’ cases being reported in the USA.
These are the people who may likely die in the next few days.
If the ‘serious, critical’ number goes up, we will likely see more deaths. On the other hand if the various drugs being tested are effective in treating the virus, the ‘serious, critical’ number should go down.
Here are the numbers:
Apr 17 Fri 13509
Apr 18 Sat 13551
Apr 19 Sun 13566
Apr 20 Mon 13951
Apr 21 Tue 14016
Apr 22 Wed 14016
Apr 23 Thu 14997
Apr 24 Fri 15097
Apr 25 Sat 15110
Apr 26 Sun 15143
Apr 27 Mon 14186
Apr 28 Tue 15298
Apr 29 Wed 18671
Last week we had a 500 patient jump on Monday . And Thursday we had a 1000 patient increase. On Monday, we had a 1000 patient decline in the number of patients critical/serious. On Tuesday we had a 1000 patient increase. And on Wednesday we had a 3,400 patient increase. Thus, it appears the worldometer algorithm made an error on Monday and now we may be in a new phase.
I looked at the worldometer website to see how they collect the serious/critical da it represents for the most part the number of patients currently being treated in Intensive Care Unit (ICU), if and when this figure is reported.”
What we need to see is a slowdown in the number of people who are serious/critical and a slowdown in the number of people dying. Yesterday, we had a sharp increase in critical/serious and a high death rate. April will likely come in with about 58,000 deaths. April 1st seems so long ago when there was a cumulative total of 5,100 deaths in the USA that day.
.
I also truncated the data to keep this posting shorter. Earlier numbers are available in DoughtyOne’s tables.
The drugs so far have not been effective at the task being asked of them. I seriously question whether ANY drug can do what is being asked in this situation. The Ro just has to be kept down while people emerge. Case identification and contact tracing will be the tools that manage the illness from here.
Thanks, but you should provide these sources as links.
Here is another improved formatting chart:
Thanks for the intriguing info. Now how does this correlate to ideological transformation that takes place as regards liberals vs,. moral conservatives?
[So what’s the point of all that? Well, any treatment that is going to be successful HAS to prevent this, what seems to me is probably a pretty characteristic presentation, serious brain injury which is likely already occurring in the seriously ill. It seems to me that no drug is going to get more than a few doses into the patient as all this is occurring. Certainly a drug that is administered IV will get maximal opportunity as it avoids all the pharmacokinetics of absorption, etc. it also has to have a MAJOR impact in those few doses to prevent death or serious disability. (Pretty obviously Remdisivir isn’t it, it has obviously been used in this context and if it was successful we would be hearing “reduces mortality” instead of “shortens hospital stays”)
It is fortunate that the disease progresses to this outcome so rarely.]
Table 2. Deaths involving coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), pneumonia, and influenza reported to NCHS by age group, United States. Week ending 2/1/2020 to 4/25/2020.*Data as of April 29, 2020 [improved formatting added] |
||||||
|
Age group |
COVID-19 Deaths (U07.1)1 |
Deaths from All Causes |
Pneumonia Deaths |
Deaths with Pneumonia and COVID-19 |
Influenza Deaths |
Population4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
All ages |
33,513 |
706,401 |
61,898 |
14,910 |
5,792 |
327,167,434 |
|
Under 1 year |
4 |
3,662 |
34 |
1 |
11 |
3,848,208 |
|
1–4 years |
2 |
704 |
33 |
2 |
30 |
15,962,067 |
|
5–14 years |
3 |
1,057 |
37 |
0 |
40 |
41,075,169 |
|
15–24 years |
37 |
6,251 |
130 |
15 |
41 |
42,970,800 |
|
25–34 years |
253 |
13,296 |
438 |
106 |
130 |
45,697,774 |
|
35–44 years |
627 |
19,177 |
991 |
249 |
205 |
41,277,888 |
|
45–54 years |
1,721 |
37,124 |
2,556 |
710 |
508 |
41,631,699 |
|
55–64 years |
4,199 |
89,413 |
7,497 |
1,844 |
1,068 |
42,272,636 |
|
65–74 years |
7,220 |
139,006 |
12,862 |
3,177 |
1,264 |
30,492,316 |
|
75–84 years |
9,142 |
174,636 |
17,096 |
4,178 |
1,291 |
15,394,374 |
|
85 years and over |
10,305 |
222,075 |
20,224 |
4,628 |
1,204 |
6,544,503 |
|
NOTE: Number of deaths reported in this table are the total number of deaths received and coded as of the date of analysis and do not represent all deaths that occurred in that period. *Data during this period are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction, age, and cause of death. 1Deaths with confirmed or presumed COVID-19, coded to ICD–10 code U07.1. 2Pneumonia death counts exclude pneumonia deaths involving influenza. 3Influenza death counts include deaths with pneumonia or COVID-19 also listed as a cause of death. 4Population is based on 2018 postcensal estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau (9) |
||||||
Watch the thing about Oxidative Stress again because he points out exactly what the source of risk is for the comorbidities and just how the virus releases those effects to amplify. It really is an excellent presentation of “Oxidative Stress.”
The guy in the vid is an Inf Dis guy from UCSF. I doubt I would agree with his politics but that shouldn’t affect his presentation of the facts. He has another video at 4 PM today that is next and I would bet he explains about the “basement membrane being thrombogenic”.
Total Population, Total Deaths
Saudi Arabia, 33 million people, 157 deaths
Chile, 19 million people, 216 deaths
Pakistan, 220 million people, 346 deaths
Japan, 126 million people, 425 deaths
Bangladesh, 170 million people, 163 deaths
Serbia, 8 million people, 173 deaths
Amazing so few deaths in such large populations. Is it real? Are they not reporting? Did fewer Chinese visit these countries? Did the virus decide to focus on Americans and Europeans?
With all the spies in this country, I would think that the Chink spies would eventually infect the A-rab spies to some extent, to drive the numbers up more than shown.
“””Saudi Arabia, 33 million people, 157 deaths
Chile, 19 million people, 216 deaths
Pakistan, 220 million people, 346 deaths
Japan, 126 million people, 425 deaths
Bangladesh, 170 million people, 163 deaths
Serbia, 8 million people, 173 deaths
Amazing so few deaths in such large populations.”””
Japan’s low death rate I attribute to their culture of cleanliness and their standard operating procedure of wearing a mask if they have a cold.
Bangladesh low death rate could be a function of malaria and the fact they may be taking HCQ as a palliative drug for malaria.
Most of the Eastern European countries are like Servia with low death rates. Maybe due to isolation and very few visitors during the winter months.
It just seems so extraordinary, America’s death rate compared to so many other countries. Here’s some more stats:
Russia, 145 million people, 972 deaths.
Turkey, 84 million people, 3,081 deaths.
Canada, 37 million people, 2,996 deaths.
India, 1.38 billion people, 1,079 deaths.
Mexico, 128 million people, 1,732 deaths.
So is he going to file a criminal complaint?
Section: 11 Data Sources and a Link to My Own Spreadsheet
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