Posted on 04/28/2020 4:13:42 AM PDT by Oldeconomybuyer
A coronavirus pandemic model has increased the predicted US death toll from the disease to 74,000 – up 14,000 from the previous estimate, according to a report.
“Our forecast now is for 74,000 deaths. That’s our best estimate. The range is pretty wide because there’s a lot of unknown factors there, but our best estimate is going up, and we see these protracted, long peaks in some states,” Dr. Chris Murray, director of the University of Washington’s Institute for Help Metrics and Evaluation, told CNN.
“We’re also seeing signs in the mobility data that people are getting more active, and that’s also feeding into our assessment,” he added.
The model had previously predicted 60,000 deaths from the bug.
Murray said the new data would affect his institute’s recommendations on when social distancing measures could be eased on a state-by-state basis, adding that they would move past the mid-May to early June dates they had previously suggested.
He said he believes states are opening too soon.
“If you’re focused on trying to protect people’s health, then the answer is absolutely. It’s a safer strategy to get the number of infections in the community down to a really low level and then testing and contact tracing and isolation can work,” Murray told CNN.
(Excerpt) Read more at nypost.com ...
‘up 14,000 from the previous estimate, according to a report.’
the fear contingent of FR dances with glee...
It is like they make predictions on the death count and more bad stuff happens because they have to be right.
The predictions are stealth death sentences for many.
Wen this is over they will be correct with their final projection.
In Maryland, a Covid-19 death is counted as “probable” until laboratory confirmed. I assume other states are doing the same. This means that there is no “presumed” positive on death certificates.
I haven’t made any such estimate. The only estimate I’ve done is worldwide case data, based on an R0 of 2.5 and each round of infection occurring over a period of 9 days. This model worked well until Apr 2; after that, the case growth has dropped, which I attribute to widespread quarantine measures having been enacted in March.
I’ll have to do a death rate model and see what I come up with.
Is this “increase” to 75,000 an “increase” from the 2 million deaths that were predicted and widely publicized in late March?
Or an “increase” from the 200,000 that Dr. Fauci predicted and was widely publicized about 10 days ago.
If after all this time, the predicted death toll is still “increasing”, Trump must be doing a really bad job. /sarc
And if the number of deaths from this virus is now approaching the total from a really bad flu season, we absolutely need to shut down our economy and all those nasty, irresponsible, greedy businesses that employ us for at least another 6 months. /sarc
Whoever came up with that one needed to get off drugs... now.
NY and other states are padding the totals to get more federal aid. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the total hit 80K by Aug 4.
it’s similar to the weather forecast that predicts 2 to 12 inches of snow.
What is the point of these estimates since there are so many instances of deaths being attributed to the China Virus without any evidence the deceased was tested for the virus.
It’s all BS and a politically motivated fear campaign.
Someday, everybody alive today will die. News at Eleven.
>> Saw the plans to open back up, then they increased the numbers.
Of course, that’s what is going to happen, how could it not?
Up 14,000 from the previous estimate? Not so.
Up to date and directly from the IHME website (his source):
"Based on the latest available data, the COVID-19 epidemic’s first wave could cause 74,073 cumulative deaths (estimate range 56,563 to 130,666) in the US. The total from today’s release is higher than average predictions published on April 22 (67,641, with an estimate range of 48,058 to 123,157) ... "
So the previous estimate by IHME was 67,641(on 4/22/20) not 60,000 as the reporter states.
Gotta keep ahead of the projected number of deaths from suicide, drug overdose and not being able to get treated for other conditions, dontcha know.
The way they are running these models on the last day they will finally have the “prediction” dialed in and we will all hear for months how wonderful and accurate they all were on CNN.
I feel better already.
If you try to open up your state to prevent a deadly economic collapse, you are a racist, sexist, homophobic profiteer who wants old people to die. /sarc
The 2.2 million dead model was a model whipped up in London, UK, which actually did take mitigation measures into account.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.