The Forgotten Hong Kong Flu Pandemic of 1968 Has Lessons for Today

NRO ^ | April 26, 2020 | JOHN FUND

[dontreadthis]

The Centers for Disease Control reports that it killed more than 1 million people worldwide, more than 100,000 of them in the U.S. Luckily, a vaccine was developed early — in August 1969. But the Hong Kong flu is still with us as a seasonal malady...

[dontreadthis]

The 1968 Hong Kong flu killed 100,000 Americans and didn't set the economy or the Vietnam War. or the Cold War

The John Batchelor Show--> https://audioboom.com/posts/7567920-the-1968-hong-kong-flu-killed-100-000-americans-and-didn-t-set-the-economy-or-the-vietnam-war-or

[HighSierra5]

I had the Hong Kong flu in April of 1969. It was bad. I’m still here.

[wastoute]

I would bet if you look at the data even then it was well known that most if not almost all of the fatalities were in high density urban centers. And yet we continued to build these monstrosities over the subsequent decades and they are planning even higher density urban centers now. At least they were two months ago. In 1969 I lived in a small town. I don’t recall anybody even being concerned about “the flu”. I sure don’t remember anyone I knew dying from it. At the time I was an orderly in the only hospital for 100 miles in any direction. I don’t remember “the flu” being a diagnosis on admission.

[TheConservativeBanker]

Don’t forget the 1957-58 Influenza pandemic. Over 100,000 dead in US - No lockdowns.

[Buckeye McFrog]

I remember it. I was a young child. I have not heard of anyone having a case since.

[urbanpovertylawcenter]

I had the Hong Kong flu in 1968
And Joe Biden will not sniff me!

[ClearCase_guy]

US population was about 200 million when we lost 100,000 to Hong Kong flu in 1968.

[daniel1212]

Don’t forget the 1957-58 Influenza pandemic. Over 100,000 dead in US - No lockdowns.

Indeed, yet without the extreme restrictions and enforcement that penalizes violations we have read about, such as a drive-in parking lot service or having 16 people spread out in a church that seats 293[1].

If extreme all-ages restrictions are indeed warranted then maybe a fine for violations should be in order. Yet the government provides for aborting over 2,000 infants a day, and promotes a practice that is the means of HIV transmission in over 80% of cases among men in America. Thus the heavy-hand on social gatherings is inconsistent to say the least.

Moreover, these extreme all-ages shelter-in-place restrictions are overall ill-advised, for as I think time will tell that it is better in the long run to allow most to go outside and to work while practicing common-sense distancing. For the cost of these long-term extreme restrictions will end up being more costly to society and life than allowing greater freedom for most and a higher initial rate of infections followed by a faster decrease thru acquired immunity.

For as increased testing is showing, the vast majority who are infected with need no special care or have no symptoms, and far more are infected[2][3] than normal testing has shown, thus greatly reducing the fatality rate. And those who are in danger are overall the aged and or those with serious heath issues, as in the case in NYC[4].

And while Covid-19 is not the flu, yet the CDC estimates[5] that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, and between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths in America annually since 2010 (between 61,000[6] to 80,000[7] Americans died during the 2017-2018 season).

Yet the issue is why did we not see a comparative proportionate (to Covid-19) response to the Asian flu with its est. 500 million infections and 1–4 million deaths worldwide and 116,000 (according to the CDC[8] ) deaths in America, even when the population was about half what it is today? And about 100,000 deaths[9] in America from the Hong Kong flu?

Footnotes

[1] Police Fine Church $2,500 for Holding Service With 16 People, But Abortion Clinics Can Kill Babies

[2] Iceland has tested more of its population for coronavirus than anywhere else. Here's what it learned

[3] Study of infected prison inmates in four states finds ... 96% are asymptomatic

[4] https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-19-daily-data-summary-deaths-04192020-1.pdf

[5] Burden of Influenza

[6] What You Should Know for the 2017-2018 Influenza Season

[7] https://www.nfid.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/press-release-3.pdf

[8] 1957-1958 Pandemic (H2N2 virus)

[9] 1968 Pandemic (H3N2 virus)

[daniel1212]

How did America endure (by the grace of God): Major modern influenza pandemics: Basic source is from Wikipedia, but with specific US data added as well as for the 2017-18 flu season, with other words in [brackets] being added, and formatting improved, while reference numbers are removed for clarity (see original for such)

Name	[Main]Date	U.S. population	World pop.	Sub-type	Reproduction rate	Infected W.W. (est.)	U.S. Deaths	[Tot.] Deaths world-wide	U.S. fatality rate	[World] Case fatality rate	Pandemic severity	I also added this column: During the 2017-2018 flu season the the % of deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza (P&I) was at or above the epidemic threshold for 16 consecutive weeks, and exceeded 10.0% for four consecutive weeks, with older Americans dying at a rate of 169 Americans a day, or seven people per hour. For this 2019-20 season, the CDC reports (March 28) that deaths due to P&I was 7.4%, which is above the epidemic threshold of 7.3%. The increase is due to an increase in pneumonia deaths rather than influenza deaths and may be associated with COVID-19. However, the CDC reported that the flu rate is low even though the percentage of pneumonia and influenza is above the epidemic threshold of 7.0% for week 15. And here it listed 52,285 deaths for Week 13 and 49,292 deaths for Week 14 as of 4-18) ) for Influenza Deaths and Pneumonia Deaths combined. And note that some of the latter can be assigned to Covid.
1889–90 flu pandemic [Russian influenza]	1889–90	62,979,766	1.53 billion	Likely H3N8 or H2N2	2.10 (IQR, 1.9–2.4)[33]	20–60% (300–900 million)	[13,000**]	1 million	N/A	0.10–0.28%	2
1918 flu	1918–20	103,208,000	1.80 billion	H1N1	1.80 (IQR, 1.47–2.27)	33% (500 million) or >56% (>1 billion)	[500,000 to 675,000]	20–100 million	N/A	2–3% or ~4%, or ~10% ~10%	5
Asian flu	1957–58	171,984,130	2.90 billion	H2N2	1.65 (IQR, 1.53–1.70)	>17% (>500 million)	[116,000]	1–4 million	N/A	<0.2% [0.6%]	2
Hong Kong flu	1968–69	200,706,052	3.53 billion	H3N2	1.80 (IQR, 1.56–1.85)	>14% (>500 million)	[100,000]	1–4 million	N/A	<0.2%	2
2009 flu pandemic	2009–10	308,745,538	6.85 billion	H1N1/09	1.46 (IQR, 1.30–1.70)	11-21% (0.7–1.4 billion)	[12,469]	151,700–575,400	[0.02%]	0.03%	1
2017–18 flu season*	2017–2018	325,084,756	7.53 billion	H1N1 / H3N2	1.53	45 million	[61,099 (prior est. 80,000)]	N/A		N/A	N/A
Typical seasonal flu	Every year		7.75 billion	A/H3N2, A/H1N1, B, ...	1.28 (IQR, 1.19–1.37)	5–15% (340 million – 1 billion) 3–11% or 5–20% (240 million–1.6 billion)	[12,000 to 61,000]	290,000–650,000/year	N/A	<0.1%	1
2019–20 seasonal flu	2019–20	330,541,013	7.75 billion	A(H1N1)pdm09, B/Victoria, A(H3N2)	[1.4 to about 5]	11%[t 2] (800 million[t 2])	[Over 24,000 as of March 28]	0.45-1.2 million[t 2])	N/A	ongoing	1
COVID-19	2019–20	330,541,013	7.75 billion			[903,775 April 24, 2:30p]	[51,000 as of 4-24, 3p]	[195,438 April 24, 2:30p]
[Notes * P+I deaths at or above epidemic threshold for 16 consecutive weeks. **as should be assumed in other cases, death rates include those due to complications accompanying the flu. We have the CDC morality rates for the flu per state for 2017-18 (13 states above 17 per 100,000 total population) and for Covid here (only 5 states above 17 per 100,000 people, as of April 16). And according to estimates, between 61,000 to 80,000 Americans died during the 2017-2018 season, the latter being the highest death toll in 40 years. During that 2017-2018 season, the percentage of deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza (P&I) was at or above the epidemic threshold for 16 consecutive weeks. Nationally, mortality attributed to P&I exceeded 10.0% for four consecutive weeks, peaking at 10.8% during the week ending January 20, 2018, (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season/flu-season-2017-2018.htm) with older Americans dying at a rate of 169 Americans a day, or seven people per hour. (https://www.aarp.org/health/conditions-treatments/info-2018/older-flu-deaths-rising.html It is estimated that about 80% of those infected with Covid-19 experience a mild case [WHO said the like] – about as serious as a regular cold – and recover without needing any special treatment. Meanwhile a study in Iceland reports that as of April 11, the country has “tested 10% of its population for coronavirus - a figure far higher than anywhere else in the world -” and that “about half of its citizenry at any given time who have coronavirus but don't know it, will be asymptomatic” (show no symptoms), which is “a large percentage many experts studying the virus have suspected, but have had little firm data to corroborate.” Another report is that those who are most vulnerable to death from Covid-19 are the aged with certain other heath conditions, thus 80 percent of US coronavirus deaths are people 65 and older. Then again, America murders over 2,000 of the most vulnerable souls a day (2017: https://www.guttmacher.org/fact-sheet/induced-abortion-united-states), while (for perspective) about 90 people die each day in the US from crashes, which are among the over 7,000 Americans who die every day in the US from a wide range of causes. (https://www.weisspaarz.com/leading-causes-death-by-state/) Other infectious diseases include: Severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS, and the mortality rate for SARS, that killed nearly 800 people, is estimated at 1 % by the C C, and with a R rating of 5. MERS, which stands for Middle East re respiratory syn drone, had a mortality rate of 5% and a R rating of 2]. Measles: Mortality rate: unclear; R rating: 12 to 18 Ebola Mortality rate: exceeds 50% R rating: about 2 Source: .cnbc.com]

[Travis McGee]

It would be interesting and valuable to do a new study on the locations of outbreak clusters from the HKF.

Especially if Manhattan (subways, elevators etc) was the biggest hot spot. Again.

[wastoute]

It ain’t a mystery. Epidemics have ALWAYS destroyed urban centers. From Athens to Constantinople to Venice to London. It the ONE constant.

[Hazwaste]

About 1/3 of the adult population believes that nothing of consequence happened before 1990 so, therefore, COVID is unprecedented in its deadliness. They did not learn history in school, therefore history is limited to what they experienced directly.

[metmom]

My dad had it and was very sick for a full week.

I got it later but not as bad as him, being younger.

It was a rough one.

[hadaclueonce]

Back then we did not have MSM feeding us BS 24 x 7.
A newspaper once a day and 30 minutes of news on TV.

[Mouton]

I had the Asian flu in 57 and so did my mom. Doc came to house then. Had few drugs then to reduce symptoms. Fever went on for days and only relief was my grandmother rubbing me with alcohol every few hours. We both survived. In 69 had flu while home over a weekend from army. Doc came and told me four days bed rest here. Told him I needed to o to military facility. He said you too sick to travel. He called fort got doc on phone who told him he must come in. After arguing for a few minutes he said I was major in WWII in Patons medical corps in North Africa. If he were there he would be in hospital and you know how bad it was there. There are no panzers here. Doc on phone said tell him stay where he is for a week I will clear it from here!

[21twelve]

I recall being sick about that age - had a terrible fever. It might have been the HK flu? In between taking care of me I recall my mom typing something on the manual typewriter in another room. When she was typing nice and smooth my mind was in a good, calm spot.

But when she would type in fits, maybe trying to read my older sister's handwritten notes for a report(?) mom would type erratically.

I can still hear it.

But with the fever it had this weird effect on me. I bet it was 5 years or more when I would have this strong, gut and mind reaction to anything ragged when contrasted with something smooth (like her typing had been). For example a wrinkled piece of paper next to a smooth sheet.

[metmom]

I don’t think medical science has a clue about what really goes on with viruses and how much it can affect the body.

[FreedomPoster]

Ok, that’s a great story! Especially since you’re still here.

[Zhang Fei]

[It ain’t a mystery. Epidemics have ALWAYS destroyed urban centers. From Athens to Constantinople to Venice to London. It the ONE constant.]

---

That’s so very true. Not so much because of any unique cultural issues, but because people closely pressed together tended to become disease vectors. Prior to modern plumbing and waste disposal, there was the added problem of lack of on-demand water for cleaning and both sewage and garbage being dumped very locally, thus contributing to the problem. Whereas rural areas, because of their dispersion, tended not to have so many problems, despite fewer amenities overall. I get the impression that besieging armies infected by epidemics had little problem sharing the wealth by flinging infected corpses into the city they surrounded, because urban dwellers were packed in even tighter than the invasion force, since forts tended to be compact for reasons of cost and defensibility.

[Buckeye McFrog]

There you go again with your rational, critical analysis.

Don’t you know FR is all about scary hockey stick graphs?