Posted on 04/27/2020 8:05:11 AM PDT by SJackson
There is no “urgent crisis” due to Covid-19 that requires a lock-down of citizens. That conclusion is based on the following:
* The probability of dying from the virus in the US is very low: 1.5 out of 10,000.
* The death rate attributed to Covid-19 in the US, which has placed increasing restrictions on people, is about the same as the death rate in Sweden, 2.0 out of 10,000, which has placed very limited restrictions on people.
Read below for objective details that lead to that conclusion:
Sources of Data: I used the most recent data for Covid-19 from the four websites below on 4/24/20.
[1] The Johns Hopkins’ website (for deaths by country…other than in the US).
[2] Worldometers (for deaths in the US).
[3] CDC (for deaths by age).
[4] Wikipedia (for population): The US has a population of 329,064,917, and Sweden has a population of 10,036,379.
Probability of Dying from Covid-19 in the U.S.
The number of deaths from the virus in the US is 50,988. The probability of dying from the virus in the U.S., therefore, is equal to the number of deaths divided by the U.S. population: 50,988/329,064,917 = 0.00015 = 0.015% = 1.5 chances out of 10,000 -- a very, very low probability.
For comparison, 61,099 Americans died of the ordinary flu two seasons ago. That means that the chance of dying from the ordinary flu was 1.9 out of 10,000, which is higher than the Covid-19 death rate.
Furthermore, when you take into account that most of the deaths from Covid-19 were of older people with underlying medical issues, the chance of younger (under 55), healthy individuals dying from the virus is much, much lower -- probably 1.5 chances out of 100,000.
Probability of Dying from Covid-19 in Sweden.
Sweden has had 2,152 deaths out of a population of 10.12 million, so the probability of dying from the virus in Sweden is about 0.02% = 2 chances out of 10,000; very low and not much different than the US death rate.
Conclusions:
* If you’re over 55 or have serious health issues, there is a greater risk of dying from Covid-19 (or any flu) than if you’re under 55 and are in generally good health. So the prudent thing for older people or people with underlying health conditions to do is follow the CDC guidelines carefully and stay away from crowds.
* Everyone else should just chill-out and go back to work.
After receiving his Ph.D. in Artificial Intelligence at M.I.T., Doctor Shillman founded Cognex Corporation, currently the world’s leading provider of machine vision systems, computers that can “see,” that are used in factories around the world to guide the manufacturing and distribution of products ranging from potato chips to computer chips.
Cigarette smoking is responsible for more than 480,000 deaths per year in the United States, including more than 41,000 deaths resulting from secondhand smoke exposure. This is about one in five deaths annually, or 1,300 deaths every day. On average, smokers die 10 years earlier than nonsmokers.
https://www.cdc.gov/tobacco/data_statistics/fact_sheets/fast_facts/index.htm
No, no, no, if someone is old enough to collect a government check then everyone else should be locked down, give up their jobs and liberty, so as not to impair their chances of continuing to cash that check.
Silly man, it will be ok because “we are in it together”. If we let the virus run its course with minimal restrictions then we cannot feel good about “saving just one life”.
Please don’t make me use the /
Regular flu is by far more deadly. The stall in keeping lock down is to give time to hope in finding a cure and a Vaccine. But this lock down will destroy our economy and good bye America.
Somewhere along the line the Task Force got away from the original Mike Pence line of “the risk to the Average American is LOW.”
It was our first red-flag indicator of mission creep.
“Cigarette smoking is responsible for more than 480,000 deaths per year in the United States, including more than 41,000 deaths resulting from secondhand smoke exposure.”
From Drs.Fausti and Scarf’s CDC “modelers”,
I made a comment elsewhere about why this virus' fatality total is relevant vs deaths from all the things listed above. It's the fact that they are from something NEW.
To wit: remember when John Allen Muhammad (aged 41 at the time) and Lee Boyd Malvo (aged 17 at the time shot people at gas stations? The flubro attitude would be "Oh, people get shot all the time...this is nothing and it's just 17 dead and 10 wounded anyway."
Think of COVID19 as a new mass murderer who killed an additional 10,000 as of early April. At that point (actually, beforehand) we would have demanded action.
A proper analysis would look at this saga in the context of other phenomena that were NEW, and their impact.
The same should be done if the quantum of suicides starts growing way above the "normal" level...because they will likely be due to something NEW, i.e. Coronastress. Indeed, this may be the news of the summer....a surge in suicides, battered spouses, and a bunch of people with blood on their hands saying "well, we HAD to shut the country down...". It'll be disgusting.
The CDC should tag such suicides as being induced by the stress of the lockdown - be it financial, depression, abandonment, abuse, etc. But even if they don't, we can do trend analysis and interpolate how many deaths are "new."
However, let me clear-I am not cheering for a body count. This all is a horror show. But I expect better from the likes of Fauci and Mr MIT.
BUT Chris Wallace just said over 53,000 deaths in two months — worst than the Vietnam War. He certainly doesn’t think it like the flu and not to worry.
Lemmings running for the cliff as the lamestream media breaks into a full belly laugh ....
* If you’re over 55 or have serious health issues, there is a greater risk of dying from Covid-19 (or any flu) than if you’re under 55 and are in generally good health. So the prudent thing for older people or people with underlying health conditions to do is follow the CDC guidelines carefully and stay away from crowds.
* Everyone else should just chill-out and go back to work.
Trump needs to wake up immediately to the conclusion of this piece. It is absolutely true and it is based on the data.
If you are not in a high risk group by age, health, or both at worst, there is no real reason you can not be working!
Three days ago the lamestream media was reporting we would reach over 60,000 dead THREE DAYS AGO. I too no longer buy their LIES. Sorry for yelling ....
And how many of those people would have died regardless or become vegetative state, unable to care for themselves or that same time
These fools act like none of these people were all healthy and nothing else whatever affected them otherwise
Besides Worm Wallace how many abortions were committed in that same time?
Be careful...
A number of the denizens of the Daily CV Thread would strongly disagree with you.
Correction. They act like everybody was healthy just like they were in Vietnam and then try to compare the two
This is so freaking overblown summers approaching. the countries are warming up the curves been flattened the hospital ship is back in Norfolk
open up the damn country the old people can stay home it’s not going to hurt us over the summer millions of tests can be manufactured and administered and work on a vaccine can proceed nonstop
Let my people go
#OUAN Open up America Now!!
FR: Never Accept the Premise of Your Opponent’s Argument
The low probability of dying indicated above is a result of the lockdown imo.
The “Orange Man Bad” media ignores that PDJT’s lock-down successfully averted the crisis imo.
Insights welcome.
Send "Orange Man Bad" federal and state government Democrats and RINOs home in November!
Supporting PDJT with a new patriot Congress and state government leaders that will promise to fully support his already excellent work for MAGA and stopping COVID-19 will effectively give fast-working Trump a third term in office imo.
MAGA, also KAGA! (Keep America Great Always!)
An interesting analysis. But everyone should note that the death rate figures only apply to today. In another month they will be higher. People keep dying. Populations do also but very slowly.
In NYC, where we have a lot of deaths the per capita death rate is almost 10x the 1.5 per 10,000 from the article. For me, that is a more meaningful reference. And it is higher but more in line with the rate for the common flu.
I found a very interesting interactive graph which shows the Effective Reproduction Number of the virus state by state and dates.
For example, my state of Washington is now at 0.89
Most states are over the hump.
* Everyone else should just chill-out and go back to work.
All Pearl Clutching hysterics please take note.
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