Posted on 04/27/2020 7:03:56 AM PDT by grayboots
These are up-to-date values for Rt, a key measure of how fast the virus is growing. It’s the average number of people who become infected by an infectious person. If Rt is above 1.0, the virus will spread quickly. When Rt is below 1.0, the virus will stop spreading.
(Excerpt) Read more at rt.live ...
Thanks....good info.
Now let’s all get back to work.
interesting-these numbers re half of what the CDC and Who have been reporting,perhaps a trend of #s being revised downward.
Here’s the single best fact based video on Covid-19 by Dr Erickson and his partner who have done over 5,200 Covid test and was out front of this before any cases were detected in the U.S. -if you watch first 9-10 minute you get gist.
Those of us with a background in data analytics have been saying for some time either the infection rate the basic reproduction Number (R0) is wrong or the fatality rate is wrong. Otherwise millions would be dead already. Remember the double a penny every day, well in 34 days it ends up being worth over $ 160 million and the (R0) factor has been stated at over 2x.
So it turns out it is the fatality rate is much much lower. This won’t compute for some people who are running with the emotion of the constant message but these are the facts on the ground. see video For a fact based study/analysis by MD Dan Erickson, who with his partner has done half of the test in Kern County
This is the 5th study that confirms this, much lower fatality rate 1) First Iceland that randomly tested people in the population then 2) Stanford study of Santa Cruz, 3) USC Study and even yesterday even 4) NY. Governor Andrew Cuomo Cumo said a preliminary survey of New York state residents found that nearly 14% of those tested had antibodies against the novel coronavirus, suggesting that some 2.7 million may already have been infected.
And even Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer said of the USC study, “the study suggests that 0.1 percent to 0.2 percent of people infected by the virus will die, which would make COVID-19 only somewhat more deadly than the seasonal flu”. That finding is consistent with the results of an earlier antibody study in Santa Clara County. “The mortality rate now has dropped a lot,” Ferrer conceded.
I’m not suggesting anyone does anything different right now as we will find out more as more studies come in but should be good news if more studies confirm this.
The state graphs are plotting the R factor, which appears that in every state they are going down and all are below 1.0. Is that also correct?
Found it interesting - here in NC we are rated at .89.
We are getting generally under 300 new cases per day - and they only test those at risk (medical workers), 65 and older and those that get hospitalized.
Those who come in with mild symptoms are not tested and are told to go home and shake it off.
No, if you go to the individual state data, you will find a number of them above 1.0.
“Those who come in with mild symptoms are not tested and are told to go home and shake it off”
In Californicator land, if you had mild symptoms, you would never see a doctor. An RN or NP would tell you on the phone to stay home, drink a lot of fluids, get some sunshine and shake it off. Then wear a mask if you go outside.
Excellent, thanks.
Looks like hockey sticks are being bioconverted into noodles, limp ones at that.
Thanks for posting this. The trend is your friend.
“This won’t compute for some people who are running with the emotion of the constant message but these are the facts on the ground.”
That sums it up nicely. This supposed “pandemic” is really just emotionalism at its worst and heartbreaking for me to see so many people on FR buying into it and then getting flamed, attacked and ridiculed by them for daring to speak my mind.
I suspect for some of them they want desperately for it to be real in order to justify their unhinged belief that the world is ending and all is lost.
Most the pity.
One of the reasons why Washington State is near the bottom of the list is that we had the first cases discovered in the USA, the first community spread cases discovered, and the first deaths discovered. We have half a million Chinese “immigrants” living in the eastern part of King and Snohomish counties. Many of whom along with their family and friends who were taking direct flights to SeaTac from Wuhan after the crisis there had begun. When the “travel ban” went into effect these direct flights just redirected to Vancouver International a two hour drive north of here. Over 10,000 people took this route in just the first two weeks of February alone. We can thank our Canadian neighbors for helping to keep the stream of infected people coming into this part of the country.
Thank you for sharing.
I’m amazed that a 2 letter URL for the Top Level Domain ‘.live’ was still available 11 days ago. Even .live has over 691K urls registered.
It’s quietly going up 1000 cases here in Arizona every 3-4 days.
If true there should be a similar outbreak of the Virus in and around Vancouver Canada?
I don’t know just asking.
Excellent video link! Thanks.
Yet the R value is under 1.0 at .99 like many other states.
Time to end the lockdown and get life back to a closer version of normal.
Yeah, there are 8 still above 1.0, with everyone of them declining and all just barely above the 1.0 mark. So even the ones above are nothing more than johnny-come-latelies to the party, and are all headed in a southerly direction. Which explains why I didn't see all of them 100% accurately. But hey, I got 84% right, which is better than those "experts" predicting the devastation this virus would exact on this nation. 8>)
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