Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Why No COVID-19 Models Have Been Accurate, And How To Fix That
The Federalist ^ | April 27, 2020 | Jon McCloskey

Posted on 04/27/2020 7:00:58 AM PDT by Kaslin

click here to read article


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-4041-42 next last

1 posted on 04/27/2020 7:00:58 AM PDT by Kaslin
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: Kaslin

Models are/were unreliable because the data was/is incomplete/corrupted.


2 posted on 04/27/2020 7:05:40 AM PDT by HangnJudge (China Lied, People died, Never Forget, this Decade's 9-11)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Kaslin

Because model are terrible at predicting anything. Now, let’s discuss the models that are predicting catastrophic global warming.


3 posted on 04/27/2020 7:05:54 AM PDT by dhs12345
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: HangnJudge

Because anyone who points this out is called a heretic in the religion of science.


4 posted on 04/27/2020 7:07:10 AM PDT by dhs12345
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: dhs12345

Meanwhile those who have no science, are basically ignorant of things involving science, parade around flaunting their ignorance


5 posted on 04/27/2020 7:10:39 AM PDT by bert ( (KE. NP. N.C. +12) Progressives are existential American enemies)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: Kaslin

Because it’s the same folks doing climate models?


6 posted on 04/27/2020 7:11:18 AM PDT by Sacajaweau
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Kaslin

I haven’t noticed the studies or the models being available for inspection by others, even though actual science requires results and the methodologies to be testable and repeatable. Just more wild ass guesses.


7 posted on 04/27/2020 7:12:49 AM PDT by Sgt_Schultze (When your business model depends on slave labor, you're always going to need more slaves)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: bert

And those who think that science is absolute just screwed the world big time. The models were wrong, wrong, wrong. No excuses. You all had your chance. You f-—ed up!!!!!

No more chances. You failed!


8 posted on 04/27/2020 7:16:48 AM PDT by dhs12345
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: Sgt_Schultze

The so called modelers hid away like thieves in the night. We should find out who they are.


9 posted on 04/27/2020 7:18:05 AM PDT by dhs12345
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: Kaslin

60,000 - 80,000 deaths seems to be realistic, slightly worse than some of the bad flu death years.

Now that deaths are in decline, and we know that UV light kills the virus well (although the media is too hung up on lying about what Trump said to report the actual news)- our economy can begin to open, and it is.

Most if not all of the economy will reopen over the next 30 days, despite recalcitrant Dem Governors.


10 posted on 04/27/2020 7:20:12 AM PDT by 1Old Pro (#openupstateny)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Sgt_Schultze

You are correct sir, and the fact that certain “scientists” don’t want to share their data or methods is usually an indication that they’re a fraud.

A good example of that is Michael Mann and his “hockey stick” graph.

Notice that Bill Gates’ IHME and the WHO both don’t share their data or methods with others ... very secretive


11 posted on 04/27/2020 7:20:20 AM PDT by canuck_conservative
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: dhs12345

...Because anyone who points this out is called a heretic in the religion of science.

Science is not the religion, Earth/Universe worship is
Science is a series of testable theories, but never portrays itself as “Truth”

The closest Science can get to “truth” is assertions for which there are no known exceptions.
Conservation of Energy, Conservation of Momentum.

Science can NEVER say why the assertions are “True”, only that they are, as best we can tell.

To understand truth one has to look at the “Why” of the Universe. To do that requires looking from the outside, in.
We can’t do that because we are bound inside the Universe.
It is the fundamental precept of Metaphysics


12 posted on 04/27/2020 7:21:11 AM PDT by HangnJudge (China Lied, People died, Never Forget, this Decade's 9-11)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: HangnJudge

The original models cited at the first President’s Task Force press conferences were based on data obtained from Italy’s experience. None of the conditions in Italy were consistent with the US and therefore those models were a fraud.


13 posted on 04/27/2020 7:23:19 AM PDT by elpadre (AfganistaMr Obama said theoal was to "disrupt, dismantle and defeat al-hereQaeda" and its allies.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Sgt_Schultze

Public vilification, scorn, tar and feathers are in order. A public hanging is probably too harsh but warranted in my opinion.

Children, what have we learned today? That science is not perfect as many would have us believe. And when we bet our lives on what these fools predict and they are wrong, we may suffer greatly.


14 posted on 04/27/2020 7:26:22 AM PDT by dhs12345
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: elpadre

Worst of all, they were presented as accurate. Whomever created the models should have the degrees and credentials stripped from them and should be forced clean toilets and Grand Central Station for the rest of their lives.


15 posted on 04/27/2020 7:29:07 AM PDT by dhs12345
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: Kaslin

It seems that way too many of these models are designed to show a desired outcome. If the data goes the wrong way, just let the software nudge it back to the appropriate direction.

Political polls are very much the same thing.


16 posted on 04/27/2020 7:32:29 AM PDT by Dutch Boy
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: elpadre

...None of the conditions in Italy were consistent with the US and therefore those models were a fraud.

They would only be a fraud if they did not list their sources and the limitations of same. Scientific articles should always list their references. I do not remember whether the original discussion did this.

A better word might be flawed, instead of fraud. All models are flawed to greater or lesser degrees, as even at their best, they do not account for all data points, and are skewed by uncertainty. Also observer bias plays a large part.

Bias is everywhere, including FreeRepublic. I just happen to think it is less here than in many other sites. YMMV


17 posted on 04/27/2020 7:34:02 AM PDT by HangnJudge (China Lied, People died, Never Forget, this Decade's 9-11)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: HangnJudge

To some, it is a religion.

Here is the most important point: NO ONE EVER EXPLAINED THAT THE PREDICTIONS MIGHT BE FALWED AND BY HOW MUCH!!!! They and all who were silent are complicit and guilty by omission; by their silence.


18 posted on 04/27/2020 7:35:07 AM PDT by dhs12345
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: 1Old Pro

Our top Dem health idiot here in Virginia is saying schools cannot open for TWO YEARS!

Of course, IDIOT should be capitalized.........


19 posted on 04/27/2020 7:35:45 AM PDT by Arlis
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: dhs12345

...To some, it is a religion.

That is called Atheism. The belief that the Universe represents “All There Is” and there is nothing else. The study of science, to them, becomes the pursuit of ultimate “Truth”

The are trapped inside a Hall of Mirrors


20 posted on 04/27/2020 7:39:14 AM PDT by HangnJudge (China Lied, People died, Never Forget, this Decade's 9-11)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-4041-42 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson