Posted on 04/23/2020 4:42:24 PM PDT by CheshireTheCat
...Lancet Global Health scientists conclude that contact tracing will work when “less than 1 percent of transmission occurred before the onset of symptoms.” That’s the opposite of the coronavirus: Victims are most contagious before or just as their symptoms begin, research indicates. By the time they are diagnosed and asked for contacts, those contacts are already infecting others. Oxford University scientists also caution that the coronavirus spreads by too many mechanisms “to be contained by manual contact tracing.”...
(Excerpt) Read more at nypost.com ...
But I guess that really isn't contact tracing. That's just more like common-sense guaging of the spread of the virus among easily recognized contacts-- no real "tracing" involved.
It’s only useful to gather data.
Yes, some additional infections will occur before a traced contact is identified, but if that contact then at least self quarantines for 14 days then their infecting others ends. Is contact tracing a total solution? No. But it can help.
Imagine of contact tracing was mandatory with STIs.
A giant slurping sound! As Perot might have said.
AND GET YOUR DNA.
It’s a useful way for Democrat Governors to stall getting opened up. The Wisconsin Gov is using this red herring, he is hinting that it may be Fall before we get opened up. There won’t be anything left if it takes that long.
But those are wrapped up in civil rights because too many people think the pursuit of happiness happens essentially no higher than someone’s crotch.
That’s probably why, once they’ve reduced everything else to something less that the pursuit of real happiness, the same people who would countenance no common sense regulation on sex or what helps there to be more sex without consequences demand everything else people do be regulated to the last tiny bit.
Yet it is done all the time with TB.
If you get diagnosed with TB, they try to identify everyone you have had contact with an they give them all a TB test.
Like I said, and especially when deal with HIV, sex is now how many people define happiness. You dare not mess with sex no matter how many die.
TB has no such connotations that I’m aware of.
In a tangentially related matter maybe nearly 2 decades ago I read of a study out of California that tobacco smoke could help kill a pot buzz. So while one is rapidly pressed for legalization the other ends up the subject of shaming.
“Imagine of contact tracing was mandatory with STIs.”...
Hahaha....should be mandatory!
Gee maybe we should use Contact Tracing to fight AIDS! Just saying.....
The technology, techniques, and infrastructure being proposed for the virus was being discussed on the news this AM, and someone (maybe from MIT) was saying that it could be done with an army of 100,000 people, who would not need too much training.
When the segment was over I started to wonder if the tracing and tracking could be done for ideas too. Interesting idea! Where did you hear it? Who told you? Have you told anyone? Who?
Prof John Barry of Tulane Uni School of Public Health, author of “The Great Influenza”, beloved by FakeNewsMSM, promotes “contact tracing”:
27 Mar: CNN: What the author of ‘The Great Influenza: The Story of the Deadliest Pandemic in History’ can teach us about coronavirus
Analysis by Jake Tapper
Tapper: President Trump on Thursday said he is “hearing it loud and clear from everybody” that people want to go back to work. He said, “We may take sections of the country, we may take large sections of our country that aren’t so seriously affected and do it that way, but we have to start the process pretty soon.” What do you think?
Barry: To do that now would be disastrous. The virus will get everywhere, and I mean everywhere. There are ways to get parts and even all of America back to work eventually, but they are complex.
Right now, as far as regions where so far there is little transmission, Singapore and South Korea have created models for what to do, but right now we don’t have the resources to follow their lead even in places that so far have little community transmission. First, we need capability for all sorts of surveillance starting with tests, which are still not available in anywhere near quantities needed. In fact right now people are running out reagents that make the tests work. Once we do solve the testing problem, if there are still regions without much community transmission, we can use tests and contact tracing and isolation and quarantine as those countries did to keep them operating, but all that has to be enforced rigidly. Rigidly. Any leakage will likely launch an explosive outbreak...
FINAL LINE: I agree with Tony Fauci. This virus is likely to be around from now on. It’s not going away. My hope is natural immunity along with drugs and vaccines will significantly diminish the threat of Covid-19.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/27/politics/interview-john-barry-great-influenza/index.html
at 1m10s on BBC: Barry likens covid19 to 1918 “Spanish” flu - quotes 50-100 million died, equivalent of 222-440 million deaths today. program ends with warning of second and third waves of covid19:
AUDIO: 23min: 23 Apr: BBC The Inquiry: How do we come out of the lockdown?
As some nations begin to tentatively lift their lockdowns, Tanya Beckett asks how best this can be done. What lessons, if any, can we learn from past pandemics? How do states make the decision, juggling the increasing demands of economic and social factors against public health concerns, amid worries of a new wave of infections from the disease? And what will our lives look like in a post-lockdown world? We hear from contributors based in France, the United States, South Korea and Denmark - one of the first countries to begin to lift its lockdown. Reporter Tanya Beckett
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w3cszl38
btw stop the testing because it leads to FakeNewsMSM worldwide inserting lines like the ***following in every news bulletin 24/7:
22 Apr: ABC: Coronavirus update: UK Government confirms early test used on NHS workers was flawed, Australia leads push to boost WHO powers
***The United States is by far the hardest-hit country, with more than 800,000 infections and more than 45,000 deaths...
Prime Minister Scott Morrison will lead a global push to give the World Health Organisation, or another body, the same powers as weapons inspectors to forcibly enter a country in order to avoid a repeat of the coronavirus pandemic...
The United States, which accounts for about 20 per cent of the WHO’s budget, suspended its funding last week. It is understood President Donald Trump broadly agrees with Australia’s proposal to bolster world health inspection powers...
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-22/coronavirus-update-australia-death-toll-uk-testing/12170518
who knows where ABC got their info re Trump wanting to bolster world health inspection powers from.
Contact tracing assumes the contacts will stay put.
Some of them haven’t.
Everyone wears a mask to help prevent spread.
And when you find a case, you lock down the entire city/town/business.
Can’t these experts stop lying?
https://virus.stanford.edu/uda/
“contact tracing” is complete bullshit when at least 15% of the general population has already been infected without having any symptoms ... in addition, the only thing that will burn this virus out is herd immunity, meaning at least 50% of the population becomes infected, so what the hell does “contact tracing” even accomplish? nothing useful actually, except providing an additional means to crushing liberty and abrogating the First Amendment ...
And yet it worked fine in south korea
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