Posted on 04/22/2020 5:36:55 AM PDT by Bruiser 10
In the early days of the COVID-19 panic—about three weeks ago—it was common to hear both of these phrases often repeated:
"The fatality rate of this virus is very high!" "There are far more cases of this out there than we know about!"
The strategy of insisting that both these statements are true at the same time has been used by politicians to implement "lockdowns" that have forced business to close and millions to lose their jobs. For instance, on March 12, Ohio Department of Health director Amy Acton insisted that "over 100,000" people are "carrying this virus in Ohio today." The state began to implement "stay-at-home" lockdown orders that day.
At the time, the World Health Organization (WHO), the media, and others were reporting that 2 to 4 percent of people with COVID-19 would die. Taking the low-end 2 percent number, and allowing for an incubation period, this would mean that two weeks after Acton's announcement—assuming that the lockdown was 100 percent effective and not a single additional person caught the disease—two thousand Ohioans would likely be dead of COVID-19. But as of April 17, more than a month later, and after a month of the disease spreading through grocery stores and other "essential" areas of commerce, about 418 Ohioans have died of COVID-19.
Clearly, something doesn't add up.
At the time, Acton was lampooned by some for presumably inflating the number of infections in the state. Indeed, the very next day she backpedaled, saying she was only guessing.
(Excerpt) Read more at mises.org ...
“Clearly, something doesn’t add up.”
Oh it will...It’s gonna start to “add up”...like never before!
Just a hypothesis but i do believe the model depends on the characteristics of the virus remaining stable. One possible problem could be right there. And for every prior epidemic that was probably a very valid assumption. Perhaps not so for this one.
They may not know how many cases there are but they sure know how many trillions of dollars they’ll need to spend.
It’s been three weeks. A virus never seen before. Our healthcare system was caught flat footed and unprepared.
And yet the media and many folks around here expect immediate, accurate, and complete response, data, and projections.
Evidently most of the people in the media, or FR have never been in an emergency situation.
If it were not so pathetic, it would be funny.
This virus won’t end until the streets of San Francisco are clean again is my prediction.
Can’t seem to find my Captain Obvious picture this morning...
Thank you so much for posting this. I had forgotten about the kind of insightful thinking to be found at Mises.
Even Scarf Lady admitted the other day that this is all based on hypothesis that aren’t supported by very much data.
She is so annoying.
Neither did they know where the sick folks were in the timeline of the disease..Beginning or ending?
Just a way to drive those numbers.
The same thing with these new tests....only useful to drive numbers, create statistics and keep the CDC and WHO and Dr. Fauci in business. Fauci wants to be the savior....I think he's the killer.
The real answer is they don’t know much of anything. Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick in Texas has it 100% right. There are risks, and we just have to face them.
Meanwhile, in Ohio, Herr DeWine is scrambling looking for reasons to keep the state shutdown. Meanwhile he’s hired a couple of old time feckless politicians to soak up some govt. money before this all ends.
It doesn't have too. They can make up any numbers they please.
“it’s for your own good”
“trust me”
“denier!”
I totally agree with you. We still don’t even have a clear profile of the complete clinical characteristics of this disease. Only time will provide answers as to it’s actual lethality and infectious nature.
What we do have is a Political Pandemic aimed at destroying Donald Trump and the greatest economy in the history of the world. This is a chess game that Trump must play. I pray that he is the chess player I think he is.
It would be a shame if we had to sacrifice all the crooks congress to end this charade. /s/
I wouldn't say I expect any of that, but we've shut down our country, have a choke hold on our economy that has wiped trillions of dollars out of retirement plans, we've racked up new spending that's added what--about 2.5 trillion more to our national debt?
Additionally, we've exposed the innate tyrannical urges that many of our elected leaders have: governors, mayors, congressmen, who have trampled on the freedoms of our citizens--kept them from attending church services, concerts, sporting events...telling us what is "essential," and what is not.
For a virus that may be carried in millions of people, the vast majority who've shown no symptoms that require any sort of medical care.
This brings us to the primary question, is the reaction proportional to the disease?
I understand that forecasts can be a little off. Sometimes, one that is "directionally correct" is often sufficient. But the longer this goes, it appears that questionable data was used to feed their models, and from those models spurred edicts and orders like this country has never seen. Now, many are back-pedaling; of course, many are also extrapolating the numbers with the next big scare: the "Second Wave" in the fall...
Oh but the experts on FR do! Just wait till hockey stick McGee shows up with his dazzling and gleaming charts!
‘Perhaps not so for this one.’
you are probably perhaps possibly correct...
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