Posted on 04/19/2020 5:39:38 AM PDT by blam
Researchers at MIT trained a neural network model on data that predicted the spread of the coronavirus from late January to early March, including information on how countries implemented quarantine measures.
The researchers have a dire warning, as detailed in a preprint uploaded to medRxiv earlier this month: reopening the US too early would lead to a catastrophe.
“We further demonstrate that relaxing or reversing quarantine measures right now will lead to an exponential explosion in the infected case count, thus nullifying the role played by all measures implemented in the US since mid March 2020,” reads the paper.
The researchers’ model focused on four locations: Wuhan, Italy, South Korea and the US — and found some good news.
“Our results unequivocally indicate,” they wrote, “that the countries in which rapid government interventions and strict public health measures for quarantine and isolation were implemented were successful in halting the spread of infection and prevent it from exploding exponentially.”
The neural network was able to closely match the predictions by just feeding it data from January 24 to March 3. It was able to validate the US’s current infected curve growth and was even able to pinpoint a “halting of infection spread by April 20.”
The danger in reopening the gates and relaxing measures is very real. Singapore experienced a spike in new COVID-19 cases this week after initially seeing major successes after implementing lockdown measures.
The news also comes on the same day that president Donald Trump revealed his plans for “Opening Up America Again,” a guideline document for state governors.
“America wants to be open and Americans want to be open,” he said during today’s announcement. “A national shutdown is not a sustainable long-term solution.”
Epidemiologists found major flaws with the statistics model that the White House’s
(snip)
(Excerpt) Read more at futurism.com ...
oh no, we’re all gonna die..
Because, science. Or doomsday cult
How much did China pay them to say this
Outside of a few locations with very high interpersonal contact (dense cites), there never was an explosion before we shutdown. We can be open and adjust for social distancing and we’ll be fine. Screw the experts. They know nothing.
Heh. Look up Sweden’s numbers without the draconian shutdown. Heck, look up any state other than NY or NJ. This is a big nothingburger. My state, KY, has a morbidity rate of 0.002, and it matters that it is mostly people over 70.
So another model? How novel.
How about studying the effect of shutting a nation down for another month or two. Model that, MIT!
Roll out treatments then, and make them readily available
We are not going to live under house arrrest for much longer
Really. The assumption they are making is that the virus is out there. Look at the bottom of the list of 200 counties. It’s pretty clear that right now there is virtually no virus in those counties to “catch”.
Apparently, models, as with studies, are a dime a dozen now. GG. /s
People over 70 in closed environments like care homes
Ignoring an inexpensive malaria drug...
More “models of doom” from MIT. Watch the world go back to work AND survive with declining casualties.
Bozo the Modeler strikes again.
Another “tech” leftist webzine taking some time out from reprinting “aliens are coming” drivel to scaremongering for the DNC
Unfortunately, we have a governor who seems to love the attention he’s getting and the control he’s exerting over his subjects.
Too soon was a week ago. Since then the daily increases have dropped to single digits.
People who can work from home should continue to do so.
And...? Reopening to late WILL cause massive deaths and irreparable harm, which delights the left.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.