Posted on 04/18/2020 4:11:39 AM PDT by DoughtyOne
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COVID-19 Update
As of 04/17/2020 23:59 PDST
Good morning everyone.
Thank you for stopping by to check out the COVID-19 Update.
Links to Data Sources Used to Create the COVID-19 Update: Located near the bottom of this post.
Links to other resources: Near the bottom of this post.
Commentary, Special Reports, and COVID-19 Update Information3: Interesting Tid-bits (hopefully)
Housekeeping
In the next 24 to 48 hours, I'll be putting up some new drapes. May toss in an extra
couch and some chairs. Cross ventilation would be good...
Another Day, Another Milestone
Late yesterday afternoon, the United States passed the 700 thousand mark of
COVID-19 cases.
Planned Action to Reduce the Impact of Large Data Dumps
Those of you who have followed the COVID-19 Update for a while, have seen
some large data dumps mess with our ability to assess what is going on
with the numbers. Problematic data delivery can also mess with our ability
to asses the numbers. So what to do about that?
I get suggestions from FReepers from time to time and Wuli came up with a
good one. It has been a long time since I used this tactic, but it's a good
one and I wish I had thought of using it before now. He suggested using
(what I'll call) averaging. We can add 7-14 days data (perhaps both), and
then divide by the number of days. Each day we go back that same amount,
us the same process and come up with a figure, and then evaluate those
numbers.
For those who don't quite understand, if we have six normal days and a
day way out of the norm on the seventh, we can get a better look at the
data if we average that big day over the seven days.
What this will do is level out the spikes. We will be able to get a
better look at trends. I plan on using this method to address both the
number of cases, and the fatalities to start. Then I might add in the
recoveries and resolved cases. We'll see.
I have other projects that will be revealed within 48 hours, so this
will take a few days to introduce. Thanks again Wuli.
the Mortality Report
I am monitering the Mortality Rates Closer these days. I don't want to have
the numbers pull a u-turn on us, unless we know it's coming..
Here are the figures for the growing case totals for four entities.
As you can tell, I'm trying to give the Global group some option, so that
we can see their data split out from the others. Notice I have it separated
from China at times, and also from the US too. I don't want our numbers to
wash up over the Global outside China numbers. We need to see what's going
on in other groups, so we can see if a trend is headed our way.
global osChina osUS
. Global osChina
DATE the US . . Global
-
03/07 17 480 497 3,594
03/08 21 685 706 3,825
03/09 -- 26 -- 864 -- 890 -- 4,026
03/10 28 1,094 1,122 4,284
03/11 38 1,428 1,466 4,638
03/12 -- 40 -- 1,508 -- 1,548 -- 4,720
03/13 47 2,189 2,236 5,429
03/14 57 2,573 2,630 5,833
03/15 -- 69 -- 3,227 -- 3,296 -- 6,513
03/16 85 3,839 3,924 7,154
03/17 113 4,599 4,712 7,954
03/18 -- 140 -- 5,407 -- 5,547 -- 8,810
03/19 196 6,557 6,753 10,030
03/20 252 7,858 8,110 11,399
03/21 -- 329 -- 9,411 -- 9,740 -- 13,049
03/22 396 10,909 11,305 14,706
03/23 428 12,632 13,060 16,563
03/24 -- 581 -- 14,766 -- 15,347 -- 18,919
03/25 753 16,890 17,643 21,308
03/26 1,301 19,484 20,785 24,077
03/27 -- 1,704 -- 22,762 -- 24,466 -- 27,761
03/28 2,229 25,293 27,522 30,852
03/29 2,488 28,226 30,714 34,018
03/30 -- 3,170 -- 31,345 -- 34,515 -- 37,820
03/31 4,055 34,987 39,042 42,354
04/01 5,112 38,837 43,949 47,261
04/02 -- 6,095 -- 43,743 -- 49,838 -- 53,160
04/03 7,403 48,208 55,611 58,937
04/04 8,454 53,012 61,466 64,795
04/05 -- 9,620 -- 56,563 -- 66,183 -- 69,514
04/06 10,943 60,542 71,485 74,816
04/07 12,875 65,937 78,812 82,145
04/08 -- 14,797 -- 70,417 -- 85,214 -- 88,549
04/09 16,691 75,718 92,409 95,745
04/10 18,747 80,667 99,414 102,753
04/11 -- 20,580 -- 84,948 -- 105,528 -- 108,867
04/12 22,115 88,813 110,923 114,269
04/13 23,644 92,745 116,389 119,730
04/14 -- 26,064 -- 102,347 -- 123,411 -- 126,753
04/15 28,554 102,789 131,343 134,685
04/16 34,641 107,714 142,355 146,987
04/17 37,175 108,515 145,690 154,322
Here's the chart to go along with those figures.
Well, the first hign I was thinking after seeing these numbers, was that
Thursday decided to give Friday the day off this week. Wow. Evidently
there wasn't much left over after Thursday this week. What a rotten day
for data it turned out to be.
Here are figures revealing the daily growth for those four entities.
global osChina osUS
. Global osChina
DATE the US . . Global
-
03/08 4 205 209 231
03/09 5 179 184 201
03/10 2 230 232 258
03/11 -- 10 -- 334 -- 344 -- 54
03/12 2 80 82 82
03/13 7 681 688 709
03/14 -- 10 -- 384 -- 394 -- 404
03/15 12 654 666 680
03/16 16 612 628 641
03/17 -- 28 -- 760 -- 788 -- 800
03/18 27 808 835 856
03/19 56 1,150 1,206 1,220
03/20 -- 56 -- 1,301 -- 1,357 -- 1,369
03/21 77 1,553 1,630 1,650
03/22 67 1,498 1,565 1,657
03/23 -- 32 -- 1,723 -- 1,755 -- 1,857
03/24 153 2,134 2,287 2,356
03/25 172 2,124 2,296 2,389
03/26 -- 548 -- 2,594 -- 3,142 -- 2,769
03/27 403 3,278 3,681 3,684
03/28 525 2,531 3,056 3,091
03/29 -- 259 -- 2,933 -- 3,192 -- 166
03/30 682 3,119 3,801 3,802
03/31 885 3,642 4,527 4,534
04/01 -- 1,057 -- 3,850 -- 4,907 -- 4,907
04/02 983 4,906 5,889 5,899
04/03 1,308 4,465 5,773 5,777
04/04 -- 1,051 -- 4,804 -- 5,855 -- 5,858
04/05 1,166 3,551 4,717 4,719
04/06 1,323 3,979 5,302 5,302
04/07 -- 1,932 -- 5,395 -- 7,327 -- 7,329
04/08 1,922 4,480 6,402 6,404
04/09 1,894 5,301 7,195 7,196
04/10 -- 2,056 -- 4,949 -- 7,005 -- 7,008
04/11 1,833 4,252 6,085 6,085
04/12 1,535 3,865 5,400 5,402
04/13 -- 1,529 -- 3,932 -- 5,461 -- 5,461
04/14 2,420 4,602 7,022 7,023
04/15 2,490 5,442 7,932 7,932
04/16 -- 6,087 -- 4,925 -- 11,012 12,302
04/17 2,534 801 3,335 7,335
Here's the chart to go with it
If you toss out Thursday, we're back to normal, but it's a higher normal than
we have been seeing. We're staging in the 2,500 range now instead of the 1,500
range we were staging in.
Thursday was so bad, that even higher numbers look like a plumet. What a mess.
We really do need that suggestion of Wuli's right away.
Here, lets look at data for the U. S. broken out by itself.
EOD ACCUM INCR
DAILY OVER DAILY
DEATH PREV PERCENT
DATE TOTALS DAY GROWTH
-
03/14 57
03/15 69 12 21.05%
03/16 85 16 23.19%
03/17 -- 113 -- 28 -- 32.94%
03/18 140 27 23.89%
03/19 196 56 40.00%
03/20 -- 252 -- 56 -- 28.57%
03/21 329 77 30.56%
03/22 396 67 20.36%
03/23 -- 428 -- 32 -- 8.08%
03/24 581 153 35.75%
03/25 753 172 29.60%
03/26 -- 1,301 -- 548 -- 72.78%
03/27 1,704 403 30.98%
03/28 2,229 525 30.81%
03/29 -- 2,488 -- 259 -- 11.62%
03/30 3,170 682 27.41%
03/31 4,055 885 27.92%
04/01 -- 5,112 -- 1,057 -- 26.07%
04/02 6,095 983 19.23%
04/03 7,403 1,308 21.46%
04/04 -- 8,454 -- 1,051 -- 14.20%
04/05 9,620 1,166 13.79%
04/06 10,943 1,323 13.75%
04/07 -- 12,875 -- 1,932 -- 17.66%
04/08 14,797 1,922 14.93%
04/09 16,691 1,894 12.80%
04/10 -- 18,747 -- 2,056 -- 12.32%
04/11 20,580 1,833 9.78%
04/12 22,115 1,535 7.46%
04/13 -- 23,644 -- 1,529 -- 7.46%
04/14 26,064 2,420 10.24%
04/15 28,554 2,490 9.56%
04/16 -- 34,641 -- 6,087 -- 21.32%
04/17 37,175 2,534 7.32%
This chart tracks the daily inrease over the previous day, in the middle
column there.
On the right we see the percentage of the increase, and thanks to one member
of our group, we can see how much we fell off that 21.32% gift to the national
family, on the day before.
One good thing about the family goomba, the day after you have to deal with
them, things generally look a lot more rosy.
The Following Addresses the Numbers Here in
the United States of America
Numbers, although high, went in the right direction yesterday.
Declared Cases in the United States
EOD DAY'S INCR'SD
DATE CASES GRWTH GROWTH
-
03/20 19,624 5,374 539
03/21 26,747 7,123 1,749
03/22 35,206 8,459 1,336
03/23 -- 46,442 -- 11,236 -- 2,777
03/24 54,893 8,789 -2,427
03/25 60,197 13,966 5,177
03/26 -- 85,991 -- 16,794 -- 2,828
03/27 104,839 18,848 2,054
03/28 124,665 19,826 978
03/29 -- 143,025 -- 18,360 -- -1,466
03/30 164,620 21,595 3,235
03/31 189,624 25,004 3,409
04/01 -- 216,721 -- 27,097 -- 2,093
04/02 245,559 28,838 1,741
04/03 278,458 32,899 4,061
04/04 -- 312,237 -- 33,779 -- 899
04/05 337,638 25,401 -8,378
04/06 368,376 30,738 5,337
04/07 -- 399,929 -- 31,553 -- 815
04/08 435,160 35,231 3,678
04/09 466,299 31,139 -4,092
04/10 -- 501,609 -- 35,310 -- 4,171
04/11 529,951 28,342 -6,968
04/12 557,590 27,639 -703
04/13 -- 582,594 -- 25,004 -- -2,635
04/14 609,516 26,922 1,918
04/15 644,348 34,832 7,910
04/16 -- 678,210 -- 33,862 -- 970
04/17 710,272 32,062 -1,800
Our new cases category fell off a bit yesterday. Hey, we'll take anything we
can get these days. We never knew when we're 24-48 hours from the goomba
waltzing into the nation parlor to pull more tricks.
Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active Cases, and
Serious/Critical Cases in the United States
Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Crital here, courtesy of amorphous
Heck, I'm tired just reading that list of stuff coming up!
ACTIVE SERIOUS
DATE FATAL RECOV RESOLV CASES CRITICAL
-
03/20 252 152 404 19,220
03/21 329 176 505 26,242
03/22 396 178 574 34,632
03/23 -- 428 -- 178 -- 606 -- 45,836
03/24 581 354 935 54,296
03/25 753 619 1,372 67,825
03/26 -- 1,301 -- 1,868 -- 3,169 -- 82,822
03/27 1,704 2,622 4,326 100,513
03/28 2,229 3,231 5,460 119,205
03/29 -- 2,488 -- 4,562 -- 7,050 -- 135,975
03/30 3,170 5,507 8,677 155,943
03/31 4,055 7,251 11,306 178,318
04/01 -- 5,112 -- 8,878 -- 13,990 -- 202,731 -- 5,005
04/02 6,095 10,403 16,498 229,061 5,421
04/03 7,403 12,283 19,686 258,772 5,787
04/04 -- 8,454 -- 14,825 -- 23,279 -- 288,958 -- 8,206
04/05 9,620 17,977 27,597 310,041 8,702 The 4th no
04/06 10,943 19,810 30,753 337,623 8,983 on the Left
04/07 -- 12,875 -- 22,711 -- 34,586 -- 365,343 -- 9,169 updated on
04/08 14,797 22,891 37,688 397,472 9,279 4/16
04/09 16,691 25,928 42,619 423,680 10,011 from 5,787
04/10 -- 18,747 -- 27,314 -- 46,061 -- 455,548 -- 10,917 to 8,206
04/11 20,580 30,502 51,082 478,869 11,471 Presbyterian
04/12 22,115 32,634 54,749 502,841 11,766 Reporter
04/13 -- 23,644 -- 36,948 -- 60,592 -- 522,002 -- 12,772 followed
04/14 26,046 38,820 64,884 544,632 13,473 more closely
04/15 28,554 48,708 77,262 567,086 13,487 early on
04/16 -- 34,641 -- 57,844 -- 92,485 -- 585,725 -- 13,369
04/17 37,175 68,510 100,685 609,587 13,509
There's not much to say here. Numbers just keep getting larger. Sandly there
Our Slice of the COVID-19 Pie
The growth of our Slice of the Pie has been slowing. On the 16th it actaully
went netative for one report row on my spread-sheet. Luckily it was the EOD
figure so you could see it.
Here are the numbers I've been tracking, Globale Declared and Active Cases.
DECLARED DAY'S ACTIVE DAY'S
DATE CASES CHGE CASES CHGE
-
03/20 7.125% 1.297% 10.934% 1.552%
03/21 8.704% 1.579% 13.000% 2.066%
03/22 10.377% 1.673% 15.343% 2.343%
03/23 12.170% 1.793% 17.411% 2.068%
03/24 13.053% 0.883% 18.369% 0.958%
03/25 14.657% 1.604% 20.190% 1.821%
03/26 16.140% 1.483% 21.454% 1.264%
03/27 17.530% 1.390% 22.920% 1.466%.
03/28 18.742% 1.212% 24.126% 1.206%
03/29 19.762% 1.020% 25.289% 1.163%
03/30 20.936% 1.174% 26.777% 1.488%
03/31 22.045% 1.109% 27.885% 1.108%
04/01 23.110% 1.065% 29.120% 1.235%
04/02 24.160% 1.050% 30.482% 1.362%
04/03 24.886% 0.726% 31.057% 0.575%
04/04 25.935% 1.049% 32.400% 1.343%
04/05 26.464% 0.529% 32.866% 0.466%
04/06 27.324% 0.860% 34.153% 1.287%
04/07 27.930% 0.606% 34.854% 0.701%
04/08 28.634% 0.704% 36.125% 1.271%
04/09 29.091% 0.457% 36.790% 0.665%
04/10 29.523% 0.432% 37.363% 0.573%
04/11 29.812% 0.289% 37.872% 0.509%
04/12 30.124% 0.312% 38.500% 0.628%
04/13 30.332% 0.208% 38.714% 0.214%
04/14 30.537% 0.205% 39.364% 0.650%
04/15 30.888% 0.351% 39.489% 0.125%
04/16 31.024% 0.136% 39.416% -0.073%
04/17 31.513% 0.489% 39.970% 0.554%
Growth in these areas rebounded yesterday. It's not quite as rosy as it
was the day before. That was a strange day though, to be sure.
The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
without Mainland China
Coming off the Thursday Lolapalooza from Gotham City, yesterday was a breath
of fresh air. At least one of us got through the stench from the day before.
My apologies go out to the folks of New York, who may feel I'm being a bit
irreverent about the deaths in your city/state. I care about your situation
it's just that your leaders let a massive stink bomb grow until they evidently
couldn't hide it any longer. And then they dumped it on the nation all at
once. If any of the other cities or states would have done that, I'm sure
you'd be a little miffed as well. All the best to the citizens of New York.
There's only so much you can do when your leaders screw up.
Here is the Cases Informaiton for the Global Outside China Territories
EOD DAY'S INCR'SD
DATE CASES GROWTH GROWTH - compared to day before
-
03/20 194,148 30,824 5,185
03/21 225,932 31,784 963
03/22 257,820 31,888 104
03/23 297,172 39,352 7,464
03/24 341,530 41,462 2,110
03/25 390,378 48,848 7,386
03/26 451,006 60,628 11,780
03/27 516,124 65,118 4,490
03/28 583,107 66,983 1,865
03/29 641,588 58,481 -8,502
03/30 704,051 62,463 3,982
03/31 777,887 73,836 11,373
04/01 855,389 77,502 3,666
04/02 933,937 78,548 1,046
04/03 1,036,395 102,458 23,910
04/04 1,121,349 84,954 -17,054
04/05 1,193.215 71,866 -13,088
04/06 1,265,487 72,272 386
04/07 1,349,117 83,630 11,358
04/08 1,436,669 87,552 3,922
04/09 1,519,961 83,292 -4,260
04/10 1,616,016 96,055 12,763
04/11 1,694,570 78,554 -17,501
04/12 1,767,831 73,261 -5,293
04/13 1,838,067 70,236 -3,025
04/14 1,912,638 74,571 4,335
04/15 2,003,756 91,118 16,547
04/16 2,103,357 99,601 8,483
04/17 2,171,190 67,833 -31,768
While the numbers are big, you can see that massive drop off from Thursday.
Certainly glad to see that.
Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active Cases, and
Serious/Crical Cases - Globally, Excluding M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Crital here, courtesy of amorphous
Here we go...
ACTIVE SERIOUS
DATE FATAL RECOV RESOLV CASES CRITICAL
-
03/20 8,110 16,393 24,503 169,645
03/21 9,740 19,995 29,735 196,197
03/22 11,305 25,485 36,790 221,030
03/23 13,060 28,470 41,530 258,538
03/24 15,347 35,256 50,603 290,927
03/25 17,643 40,467 58,210 332,168
03/26 20,785 48,084 68,869 382,137
03/27 24,466 56,801 81,267 434,857
03/28 27,522 64,777 92,299 490,808
03/29 30,714 76,342 107,056 534,532
03/30 34,515 89,989 124,504 579,547
03/31 39,052 102,121 141,163 636,724
04/01 43,949 118,092 162,041 693,348
04/02 49,838 135,204 185,042 748,895
04/03 55,611 150,014 205,625 839,770
04/04 61,466 170,309 231,775 889,574 41,993
04/05 66,183 185,921 252,104 941,111 45,633
04/06 71,485 208,635 280,120 985,367 47,201
04/07 78,812 224,264 303,076 1,046,041 47,743
04/08 85,214 253,546 338,760 1,097,909 47,990
04/09 92,409 278,059 370,468 1,149,493 49,001
04/10 99,443 299,451 398,894 1,217,122 49,692
04/11 105,528 326,847 432,375 1,262,195 50,485
04/12 110,928 352,960 463,888 1,303,943 50,735
04/13 116,389 375,551 491,940 1,346,127 51,035
04/14 128,411 407,858 531,269 1,381,369 51,490
04/15 131,343 437,452 568,795 1,434,961 51,043
04/16 142,355 475,102 617,457 1,485,900 56,510
04/17 149,690 497,480 647,120 1,524,070 57,049
Even here in the Global osChina numbers, we can see the effective drop-
How is the Global Community Outside China Doing,
Without US numbers?
Take special note of the dip in the Global nubmers here. Nice!
Global (EC) Global
the Minus Excluding
-
U. S. the U. S. China
03/29 19,826 38,955 58,481
03/30 21,595 40,868 62,463
03/31 25,004 48,832 73,836
04/01 27,097 50,405 77,502
04/02 28,838 49,710 78,548
04/03 32,899 69,559 102,458
04/04 33,843 51,111 84,954
04/05 25,401 46,465 71,866
04/06 30,738 41,534 72,272
04/07 31,553 52,077 83,630
04/08 35,231 52,321 87,552
04/09 31,139 52,153 83,292
04/10 35,310 60,745 96,055
04/11 28,342 50,212 78,554
04/12 27,639 45,622 73,261
04/13 25,004 45,323 70,236
04/14 26,922 47,649 74,571
04/15 34,832 56,286 91,118
04/16 33,862 65,739 99,601
04/17 32,082 33,771 67,833
Would love to see that catch on, and be the next big fad...
Special Section on France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the U. K.
Case growth.
Lets Look at Some Numbers in Five Day Increments:
DATE FRANCE GERMANY ITALY SPAIN The U K - 02/20 12 16 3 2 9 02/25 14 18 322 9 13 03/01 100 117 1,128 76 36 03/06 -- 653 -- 670 -- 4,636 -- 401 -- 164 03/11 2,284 1,966 12,462 2,277 459 03/16 6,650 7,272 27,980 9,942 1,553 03/21 14,485 22,364 53,578 25,496 5,067 03/26 -- 29,566 -- 43,938 -- 80,589 -- 57,786 -- 11,812 03/31 52,819 68,180 105,792 94,417 25,481 04/05 93,780 100,123 128,948 131,646 44,440 04/10 125,931 122,171 147,577 158,273 74,605 04/15 -- 147,863 -- 134,753 -- 165,155 -- 180,659 -- 98,476 04/17 147,969 141,397 172,434 190,889 108,692 < 2 DAYS NOT FIVE - Deaths 18,681 4,352 22,745 20,002 14,576 - Populace 66.274m 83.784m 60.462m 46.755m 67.886m - C P M 1m 2,233 1,688 2,852 4,082 1,601 - D P M 1m 282 52 376 428 215
I find this interesting...
Sweden and It's Neighbors, Who Has the Best Tactic Againt COVID-19?
Sweeden is doing their own thing with regard to isolating. I think most people
are aware of it by now.
Here are some numbers to help us look at this issue.
DATE SWEDEN DENMARK FINLAND NORWAY - 02/21 1 0 1 0 02/26 2 0 1 1 03/02 15 4 6 25 03/07 -- 161 -- 27 -- 19 -- 156 03/12 599 617 59 702 03/17 1,196 1,024 321 1,471 03/22 1,934 1,514 626 2,385 03/27 -- 3,069 -- 2,700 -- 1,041 -- 3,771 04/01 4,947 3,290 1,446 4,877 04/06 7,206 4,875 2,176 5,865 04/11 10,151 6,191 2,905 6,409 04/16 12,640 6,879 3,369 6,950 04/17 13,216 7,073 3,489 6,937 < 1 day not five - Deaths 1,400 336 82 161 - Populace 10.099m 5.792m 5.541m 5.421m - C P M 1m 1,309 1,221 630 1,280 - D P M 1m 139 58 15 30
Now while their case numbers don't look out of whack, I still can't figure out
why their rate of death is so much higher per million.
On the other hand, whatever Finland is doing, someone should can it and sell it.
The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
including Mainland China*
Mainland China numbers make up 00.07% of today's cases globally
Nations With Lots of Cases
At the end of the day yesterday, there were:
1 nation(s) with 600,000 plus (take a bow...) 5 nation(s) with 100,000 to 199,999 3 nation(s) with 50,000 to 99,999 6 natiom(s) with 20,000 to 49,999 8 nation(s) with 10,000 to 19,999 19 nation(s) with 5,000 to 9,999 36 nation(s) with 1,000 to 4,999
There are currently 78 nations with a 1,000 count or above...
That's a whole lot of nations there. With over 1,000 in each one, we know
that over time they are potential declared cases time-bombs.
A Look at Declared, Resolved, and Active Cases, Includes M/L China
End of day figures follow:
DECLAR DAY'S RESOLVED DAY'S PCT DEC ACTIVE
DATE CASES GROWTH CASES GROWTH CS RESOL CASES
-
03/20 - 275,434 - 30,911 - 99,655 - 3,590 - 36.181% - 175,779
03/21 307,280 31,846 105,425 5,770 34.309% 201,855
03/22 339,259 31,979 113,540 8,115 33.467% 225,719
03/23 - 381,621 - 42,362 - 118,369 - 4,829 - 31.017% - 263,252
03/24 423,121 41,500 127,538 9,169 30.142% 295,583
03/25 472,109 48,998 136,178 8,640 28.845% 335,931
03/26 - 532,788 - 60.679 - 146,749 - 10,571 - 27.544% - 386,039
03/27 598,070 65,282 159,533 12,784 26.675% 438,537
03/28 665,164 67,094 171,077 11,544 25.720% 494,087
03/29 - 723,740 - 58,576 - 186,060 - 14,983 - 25.708% - 537,680
03/30 786,291 62,551 203,926 17,848 25.933% 582,383
03/31 860,181 73,890 220,713 16,085 25.659% 639,468
04/01 - 937,783 - 77,602 - 241,591 - 20,878 - 25.762% - 696,192
04/02 1,016,401 78,618 264,935 23,344 26.066% 751,466
04/03 1,118,921 102,520 285,706 20,771 25.534% 833,215
04/04 - 1,203,923 - 85,002 - 312,068 - 26,362 - 25.931% - 891,855
04/05 1,275,856 71,933 332,513 20,445 26.062% 943,343
04/06 1,348,184 72,328 359,618 27,105 26.674% 988,566
04/07 - 1,431,900 - 83,716 - 383,688 - 24,070 - 26.796% - 1,048,212
04/08 1,519,478 87,848 419,465 35,777 27.606% 1,100,283
04/09 1,602,885 83,407 451,259 31,794 28.153% 1,151,626
04/10 - 1,699,019 - 96,134 - 479,758 - 28,499 - 28.237% - 1,219,261
04/11 1,777,666 78,647 513,239 33,481 28.872% 1,264,427
04/12 1,850,966 73,300 544,892 31,653 29.438% 1,306,074
04/13 1,921,369 70,403 573,019 28,127 29.823% 1,348,350
04/14 - 1,995,989 - 74,620 - 612,427 - 39,408 - 30.683% - 1,383,562
04/15 2,086,097 90,108 650,029 37,602 31.160% 1,436,068
04/16 2,186,049 99,952 700,033 50,004 32.023% 1,486,016
04/17 2,253,909 67,860 728,781 26,748 32.334% 1,525,128
That recovery percentage continues to climb. It's has grown 6.8% in the last two
weeks. That will impact our active cases.
Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active, and Serious/Crical
Cases Globally, Including M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Crital here, courtesy of amorphous
ACTIVE SERIOUS
DATE FATAL RECOV RESOLV CASES CRITICAL
-
03/20 11,399 88,256 99,655 175,779
03/21 13,049 92,376 105,425 201,855
03/22 14,706 98,834 113,540 225,719
03/23 16,563 101,806 118,369 263,252
03/24 18,919 108,619 127,358 295,583
03/25 21,308 114,870 136,178 335,931
03/26 24,077 122,672 146,749 386,039
03/27 27,761 131,772 159,533 438,537
03/28 30,852 140,225 171,077 494,087
03/29 34,018 152,042 186,060 537,680
03/30 37,820 166,088 203,908 582,383
03/31 42,354 178,359 220,713 639,468
04/01 47,261 194,330 241,591 696,192
04/02 53,160 211,775 264,935 751,466
04/03 58,937 226,769 285,706 833,215
04/04 64,795 247,273 312,068 891,855 42,288 ch 295
04/05 69,514 262,999 332,513 943,343 45,898 ch 265
04/06 74,816 284,802 359,618 988,566 47,412 ch 211
04/07 82,145 301,543 383,688 1,048,212 47,932 ch 189
04/08 88,549 330,916 419,464 1,100,283 48,166 ch 176
04/09 95,475 355,514 451,259 1,151,626 49,145 ch 144
04/10 102,782 376,976 479,758 1,219,261 49,833 ch 141
04/11 108,867 404,372 513,239 1,264,427 50,624 ch 139
04/12 114,269 430,623 544,892 1,306,074 50,856 ch 121
04/13 119,730 453,289 573,019 1,348,350 51,151 ch 116
04/14 126,753 485,674 612,427 1,383,562 51,603 ch 113
04/15 134,685 515,344 650,029 1,436,068 51,138 ch 95
04/16 146,987 553,046 700,033 1,486,016 56,599 ch 89
04/17 154,332 574,459 728,781 1,525,128 57,134 ch 85
It doesn't show up here all that clearly, but today was a better day!
Population Saturation
Here are figures revealing how many people in each population base represent one case.
I'm also showing what percent of each population base is infected at this time.
1 CASE IN
THIS NUMBER CHANGE CHANGE
OF PEOPLE ON ON
ENTITY 04/17 04/16 04/15 04/17 04/16
-
Globally : 5,100 5,234 5,411 -134 -177
Outside China : 5,104 5,235 5,415 -131 -180
The U. S. A. : 543 565 583 -22 -18
-
INFECTION LEVEL
OF ENTIRE CHANGE CHANGE
POPULACE ON ON
ENTITY 04/17 04/16 04/15 04/17 04/16
-
Globally : 00.0196% 00.0192% 00.0177% 00.0004% 00.0015%
Outside China : 00.0238% 00.0232% 00.0224% 00.0006% 00.0008%
The U. S. A. : 00.1842% 00.1770% 00.1713% 00.0072% 00.0057%
Daily Case Report Evaluation
I'll be keeping tabs on the daily tallies for days of the week for a while. Folks have
noticed some patterns of larger and smaller data entry on certaind days, and on Fridays
sometimes the numbers get noticably larger because of it.
And we now know Thurdays have potential to break out also. Yikes!
Let's check out the numbers and a chart.
Wk/of Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon - 03/06 2,223 2,265 2,962 3,801 3,977 3,876 4,411 03/13 4,411 4,680 2,085 17,028 11,031 13,847 12,158 03/20 15,748 20,668 25,700 30,911 31,846 31,979 42,362 03/27 41,500 48,988 60,679 65,282 67,094 58,576 62,551 04/03 73,890 77,602 78,618 102,520 85,002 71,933 72,328 04/10 72,328 87,578 83,407 96,134 78,647 73,300 70,403 04/17 74,620 90,108 99,952 67,860
Friday's do seem to have a bias in favor of larger reports of new cases.
I'll keep tracking this for at least a few more weeks to give folks a chance to detect
patterns not only on Fridays, but other days as well.
States of the Union and the District of Columbia, Alphabetical & by Case Number
Idea of adding more informaton here, courtesy of Presbyterian Reporter
This little report now provides the number of cases and the deaths. I was going
to add more, but the data set I needed to pull this from, didn't provide that
information.. It's an alphabetical and cases by declining number file.
It will also be available as a downloadable Excel file, so you can do your own
sorting, beyond the two sorts I have provided here. Both the states and the counties
come on one Excell spreadsheet.
Here is the Standing of 200 Counties in the U. S.
This little report lists 200 Counties in the United States in declining Case numbers.
There is also a listing that is alphabetical. This report just list the entities
and the number of Cases in the two different sorts.
It will also be available as a downloadable Excel file, so you can do your own
sorting, beyond the two sorts I have provided here. The States and Counties are
included on the same Excel spreadsheet.
Here's what it's all about. From January 20th to the present.
This concludes our look back at yesterday's data. Take care...
Data for this Report Sourced From:
LINK Johns Hopkins University
The Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE)
LINK WorldoMeters
LINK You are Invited to Review My COVID-19 Spreadsheet (XLSX)
There is not an XLS version available for distribution at this time.
Other Features:
LINK US States DC51, Territories5+, and Counties200
Excel Spreadsheet with Alphabetical and Numerically descending Cases
Links to other resources:
I cannot vouch for these sites. Please use your own discression.
LINK Adventist Health Coronavirus Resource Hub - Scroll down for useful info
LINK CDC Data for Download - Scroll down - Excel required. Includes death stats.
LINK CDC Secondary Data and Statistics - Portal Entry / Look around
LINK Coronavirus (COVID-19) Map
LINK COVID-19 First U.S. Case, Treatment, features Remdesivir
New England Journal of Medicine article
LINK On the Origin of CCP Virus, A Documentary Movie (turn up the sound)
Epoch Times: I highly recommend this very well documented report.
LINK Diamond Princess Review at 634 Case Point of Eventual 712
LINK earlyAlert
LINK Hydroxychloroquine Article: International Poll
Daily Mail Reports, Most Effective Treatment According to 6,000 Physicians
LINK IHME - Institute for Health Matrix and Evaluation
LINK National Institutes of Health - Cornavirus (COVID-19)
LINK New York City - interesting breakdown, burough, age, sex
LINK World Health Organization
At least the Puerto Rico numbers are wrong. They are actually half or probably even a third of what has been reported. This was admitted to by the territory Health Secretary. I wonder who else is doing this?
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3836351/posts
Can you add me to your Ping list?
Thanks so much!
state and county info now— good (thanks).
state and county rankings are ok so far as they go but to really understand at a glance, imho, one needs percentage by population stats.
crical -> critical
two somewhat competing conjectures are
1 covid19 effects are magnified by population density
2 there are actually two strains of covid19, one from italy (nyc) and the other more directly from china (wa, ca).
can the numbers tell us whether either or both of these conjectures are supported by the data? (open)
I think South Korea figured that one out about a month ago.
Here’s a report on it from the 9th of April, but I’m sure
it has been longer than that since I heard of it the first
time in South Korea.
Thanks for your excellent work.
The Swedish data (like Italy) seems to be saying that “business as usual” is NOT the best idea for handling this.
Guillain–Barré syndrome after the onset of coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19)
It's still not clear to me this should have been handled
any different than... dare I say it... shall I...
the flu.
I'm pretty sure the deaths involve demographics that
generally often succumb to the flu.
I'm in one of those high-risk groups. I don't think it's
worth destroying our nation rather than take the hit.
At some point, we are going to have to suck it up, and get
back out there.
These stats are only of those tested. Most are not tested. Showing symtoms such as cough or fever, being in a high risk group (obese, elderly), being a medical worker are tested. The data collected is skewed to exaggerate the spread.
In the same way that China is taken out of numbers, try categoris of Nursing Homes, Medical workers, morbidly Obese, and other. We might find that the incidence and incidence rate for OTHER is very low while nursing home and Obese is much larger.
My data source does not provide the population of the
counties listed.
The objective of providing this information, was to get
the information out to FReepers without them having to
go elsewhere to get it.
They can determine the population of their county or and or
the counties near them for comparison.
On Wednesday April 1 I began tracking the number of ‘serious, critical’ cases being reported in the USA.
These are the people who may likely die in the next few days.
If the ‘serious, critical’ number goes up, we will likely see more deaths. On the other hand if the various drugs being tested are effective in treating the virus, the ‘serious, critical’ number should go down.
Here are the numbers:
Apr 1 Wed 5005
Apr 2 Thu 5421
Apr 3 Fri 5787
Apr 4 Sat 8206
Apr 5 Sun 8702
Apr 6 Mon 8879
Apr 7 Tue 9169
Apr 8 Wed 9279
Apr 9 Thu 10,011
Apr 10 Fri 10916
Apr 11 Sat 11471
Apr 12 Sun 11766
Apr 13 Mon 12722
Apr 14 Tue 13473
Apr 15 Wed 13487
Apr 16 Thu 13369
Apr 17 Fri 13509
On Wednesday the number of serious and critical cases only increased by 14 patients.
On Thursday, the number of serious and critical cases DECLINED by 118 patients.
Yesterday,the number of serious and critical cases only increased by 140 patients.
While that is great news three days in a row, we need to keep in mind that about 7000 people died Wed, Thu, Fri.
What we need to see is a slowdown in the number of people who are serious/critical and a slowdown in the number of people dying.
In effect what we have seen in the past three days is that about one half of the serious, critical patients were taken off ventilators because they died, but those dead patients were replaced with the same number of new patients put on ventilators.
The slowdown in critical/serious cases is confirmed by Trump’s task force who are saying there are plenty of empty ICU and Regular hospital beds. The conclusion I also reach is that we have far more ventilators than were ever needed. The most people classified as critical/serious has not gone much above 13,000 and the USA has well over 100,000 ventilators.
The WHO are NOT the BEST “experts” in the world, on any subject.
It is simply more likely the waste water reflects some level of existing infection rates due to the viral fragments in feces, NOT that the waste water represents a “water borne” disease carrying element.
I'm ready to roll. My long planned April vacation has arrived. My hospital doesn't need me. We are underfilled. Empty ICU beds and regular beds are available for more Covid patients. Such great, good news.
This is a staycation in the truest sense. I have nothing to complain about. I have no place to go. Stuck in the southern part of New Jersey. Parks and trails are closed. I wish I could break out to greener more freedom loving pastures. I am grateful I don't live in Michigan! At least I have my gardening and seedlings I will enjoy while staying home.
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