CORONAVIRUSPublished 5 hours ago Coronavirus antibody testing finds Bay Area infections may be 85 times higher than reported: researchers

Fox News ^ | april 17, 2020 | Alexandria Hein

[absalom01]

A team of researchers in California found that the number of coronaviruses cases in one county may actually be up to 85 times higher than the what health officials have tallied, and say their data may help better estimate the virus’ true fatality rate.

Earlier this month, Stanford University-led researchers tested 3,330 adults and children in Santa Clara County, who were recruited using Facebook ads, for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies and found that the population prevalence of COVID-19 in Santa Clara ranged from 2.49 percent to 4.16 percent.

...

“This probably aligns with what overall national exposure may be, on order of about 5 percent once we do wide serology,” he tweeted on Friday. “Santa Clara was a hot spot and I would have expected exposure to be higher. Overall we’re probably diagnosing 1 in 10 to 1 in 20 infections.”

[absalom01]

Finally getting some numbers in on the actual infection rate. We always knew it was much higher than the current "official" numbers, just not how much higher.

The factor of 50 in the Bay Area is almost certainly can't be scaled to the country as a whole, but I bet the rates in LA county are similar.

These reports are piling up now...all saying that somewhere between 5% and 15% of the population has been exposed to the Wuhan virus.

[SkyDancer]

Street vagrants.

[Jane Long]

Lowers the overall fatality rate then, right?

[SeekAndFind]

But we do not have 85 times more hospitalizations. What does this tell us?

[Paladin2]

Herd Immunity doesn’t occur at 4% of the population having acquired immunity.

[Grampa Dave]

It hit us, and most of us are still alive and most did not have to go to a hospital nor did we die!

They are leaving that reality out re these numbers.

[PsyCon]

What does this tell us?

It apppears to tell us “We have nothing to fear but fear itself.”

[Grampa Dave]

But we do not have 85 times more hospitalizations.

What does this tell us?

It didn’t kill us nor put us in hospitals.

[Da Coyote]

Bay area.

Perhaps there is an infection vector that is - shall we say - a bit more common in that area?

Just wonderin’.

[Cboldt]

Remember a few weeks ago when the Ohio doc said 100,000 infections in Ohio? This is the same idea. Maybe most people (99%) slough off the infection.

[cherry]

I really hope I had it...

today I tinkered with the idea of not wearing a mask at all....even though I am at risk, it would be better to get it now then later.....

[House Atreides]

“Street vagrants.”
**********************
If you’re referring to the study participants...NOT A CHANCE. The volunteers were recruited by Facebook ads and the participants had to drive to where their samples were taken.

You can take it to the bank that street vagrants would have “positive” test results substantially higher than the about 3% finding in this study universe.

[Bonemaker]

“CORONAVIRUSPublished 5 hours ago Coronavirus antibody testing finds Bay Area infections may be 85 times higher than reported: researchers...”

I certainly hope so.

[exDemMom]

… or it’s showing that a lot of people have had ordinary colds in the Bay Area.

The problem with antibody tests is that antibodies tend to cross-react with similar antigens. They did not use an FDA approved diagnostic grade kit, but a research grade kit. The standards for an FDA approved kit are far higher than those for a research grade kit. And coronaviruses are structurally similar to each other.

[lizma2]

“But we do not have 85 times more hospitalizations. What does this tell us?”

Much of this is a political pandemic.

[Drago]

Yep, as I recall she was ridiculed...using the percentages from this antibody study upwards of 476,000 people in Ohio have had COVID & recovered or currently have COVID-19. (11,689,000 * .04).

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1

[Buckeye McFrog]

And the bodies aren’t stacked as high as a tower in the Golden Gate Bridge because...

[Jane Long]

Hannity with Breaking ... confirms that a full scale investigation taking place on the China flu....focusing on a biolab in china.

[ncpatriot]

My...my.

[brookwood]

Rolling On The Floor Laughing! Bhattachaya and company making ludicrous claims again to save their withering reputations.
They find a raw infection rate of 1.5% and TRIPLE it because of "zip code, race and sex" adjustments.
You could make the same adjustments with regard to cancer and find that the mortality rate from cancer or regular flu is 10 times lower.
They have cancer but they just don't know it! Where is your data Chinese propaganda expert? How can you lie like this ? Show some data!
Here's the data, with links to official sources. Date NYC Covid Deaths Pct of Average All-Cause deaths
4-4 387 2254 244.94%
4-5 218 2472 137.97%
4-6 266 2738 168.35%
4-7 806 3544 510.13%
4-8 716 4260 453.16%
4-9 518 4778 327.85%
4-10 651 5429 412.03%
4-11 313 5742 198.10%
4-12 440 6182 278.48%
4-13 1167 7349 738.61%
4-14 556 7905 351.90%
4-15 2462 10367 1558.23%
4-16 1110 11477 702.53%
https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page
Average number of deaths in NYC prior to 2020 158 per day
https://www.quora.com/How-many-people-die-in-New-York-every-day
NYC had 2,220 deaths from Influenza and Pneumonia in 2014
NYC had 11,377 deaths from Covid19 in the 36 days since March 11.
https://data.cityofnewyork.us/Health/New-York-City-Leading-Causes-of-Death/jb7j-dtam
Deaths per day from Covid in the last 7 days are from 2 to 10 times the average number of deaths from all causes.
Since March 11th NYC also had 9,348 deaths NOT attributed to Covid 19.
Since March 11th there have been 20,825 deaths in NYC, in 36 days.
Normally there would be 5,688 deaths.
The total number of deaths in NYC in the last 36 days is 366% of the normal number of deaths.
The number of Covid19 deaths is already 5 times the number of flu deaths in an entire average year (11,477/2,220)
Minimum Infection Mortality Rate based on NYC data
11,477 deaths in population of 9,000,000, approx .13% of total population has already died
NYC Cases 4-15 111424 Pct Positive 55.9152519
Total NYC tests 4-15 199273

IF 56% * 9,000,000 = 5,040,000 people are infected in NYC, Infection Mortality Rate is .23%
It is ridiculous to assume the percentage of infected among those with NO symptoms is the same as in those with symptoms, who are the only ones eligible to be tested.
Infection Mortality Rate calculation from Bergamo, Italy.
Province of Bergamo,population 1,112,000
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Province_of_Bergamo
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-deaths-insig/death-at-home-the-unseen-toll-of-italys-coronavirus-crisis-idUSKBN21N08X
Deaths in Bergamo as of 4/5/2020 official 2060 estimate 4500 (based on total deaths in excess of normal deaths)
Death rate assuming everyone is infected - official deaths - .19%
Death rate assuming everyone is infected - estimated deaths - .4%

Again it is unrealistic to believe that EVERYONE is Bergamo was infected, so .4% is the MINIMUM Infection Mortality Rate. This is a study of over 1mm people, not a cruise ship or small sample.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2016-2017.html
Regular flu Infection Fatality Rate 2016-17
38,000 deaths from 29,000,000 SYMPTOMATIC ILLNESSES ONLY .13% Case Fatality Rate
Regular Flu Death Rate assuming everyone is infected 38,000/330,000,000 .011%