Top Israeli prof claims simple stats show virus plays itself out after 70 days

The Times of Israel ^ | 14 April 20 | TOI staff

[hollywood]

Yes, Covid-19 is very bad. In fact, I hear it makes otherwise-sane people attempt to bolster their arguments and points-of-view by referencing otherwise-insane publications and newspapers, such as the LA Times, WSJ and Today. Truly a first here on FR. (PS: Hi, Travis!)

[waredbird]

My wife and I live in Ecuador for about eight months every year. Done it for each of the last six years. Yes cheap beachfront in a remote area. Took up surfing at age 72. When this thing hit, a lot of Canadians and Americans took their arraigned embassy flights out. There are only two airports, Quito and Guayaquil. Our closest is Guayaquil, 5 hours by bus. We decided not to go. Too much possible contact going through GUY, MÍA, etc for two septuagenarians. We have one other couple from Canada left in the six plex. He goes for supplies once a week. So far so good.

Ecuador has done minimal testing. I think the ones they do have are the old slow variety. I wouldn’t be surprised if they don’t count these 5000 more deaths as COV deaths. Stats are unreliable. My guess it’s like everywhere else, positive cases vastly undercounted, deaths overcounted.

[hollywood]

PPS: See tagline

[Buckeye McFrog]

[lurk]

July 4 will look just like the 4th of July.

[Travis McGee]

I’d love to continue to hear updates, you sure found yourself in an interesting position to study the pandemic!

On Spanish TV news I watch on YT, there seems to be a huge disparity between official CV death numbers (hundreds) to unofficial estimates (thousands).

Those who believe the unofficial numbers say that only a fraction of deaths are officially counted because there is almost no testing, and most die at home, not in the overrun hospitals.

I’d love to hear more from on the ground. Even in your relatively safe six-plex, you must be hearing constant local news and chatter from Guaya concerning the pandemic.