Posted on 04/17/2020 4:47:46 AM PDT by Bruiser 10
A prominent Israeli mathematician, analyst and former general claims simple statistical analysis demonstrates that the spread of COVID-19 peaks after about 40 days and declines to almost zero after 70 days — no matter where it strikes, and no matter what measures governments impose to try to thwart it.
Prof Isaac Ben-Israel, head of the Security Studies program in Tel Aviv University and the chairman of the National Council for Research and Development, told Israel’s Channel 12 (Hebrew) Monday night that research he conducted with a fellow professor, analyzing the growth and decline of new cases in countries around the world, showed repeatedly that “there’s a set pattern” and “the numbers speak for themselves.”
While he said he supports social distancing, the widespread shuttering of economies worldwide constitutes a demonstrable error in light of those statistics. In Israel’s case, he noted, about 140 people normally die every day. To have shuttered much of the economy because of a virus that is killing one or two a day is a radical error that is unnecessarily costing Israel 20% of its GDP, he charged.
(Excerpt) Read more at timesofisrael.com ...
Yes, Covid-19 is very bad. In fact, I hear it makes otherwise-sane people attempt to bolster their arguments and points-of-view by referencing otherwise-insane publications and newspapers, such as the LA Times, WSJ and Today. Truly a first here on FR. (PS: Hi, Travis!)
My wife and I live in Ecuador for about eight months every year. Done it for each of the last six years. Yes cheap beachfront in a remote area. Took up surfing at age 72. When this thing hit, a lot of Canadians and Americans took their arraigned embassy flights out. There are only two airports, Quito and Guayaquil. Our closest is Guayaquil, 5 hours by bus. We decided not to go. Too much possible contact going through GUY, MÍA, etc for two septuagenarians. We have one other couple from Canada left in the six plex. He goes for supplies once a week. So far so good.
Ecuador has done minimal testing. I think the ones they do have are the old slow variety. I wouldn’t be surprised if they don’t count these 5000 more deaths as COV deaths. Stats are unreliable. My guess it’s like everywhere else, positive cases vastly undercounted, deaths overcounted.
PPS: See tagline
July 4 will look just like the 4th of July.
I’d love to continue to hear updates, you sure found yourself in an interesting position to study the pandemic!
On Spanish TV news I watch on YT, there seems to be a huge disparity between official CV death numbers (hundreds) to unofficial estimates (thousands).
Those who believe the unofficial numbers say that only a fraction of deaths are officially counted because there is almost no testing, and most die at home, not in the overrun hospitals.
I’d love to hear more from on the ground. Even in your relatively safe six-plex, you must be hearing constant local news and chatter from Guaya concerning the pandemic.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.