Skip to comments.Top Israeli prof claims simple stats show virus plays itself out after 70 days
Posted on 04/17/2020 4:47:46 AM PDT by Bruiser 10
A prominent Israeli mathematician, analyst and former general claims simple statistical analysis demonstrates that the spread of COVID-19 peaks after about 40 days and declines to almost zero after 70 days no matter where it strikes, and no matter what measures governments impose to try to thwart it.
Prof Isaac Ben-Israel, head of the Security Studies program in Tel Aviv University and the chairman of the National Council for Research and Development, told Israels Channel 12 (Hebrew) Monday night that research he conducted with a fellow professor, analyzing the growth and decline of new cases in countries around the world, showed repeatedly that theres a set pattern and the numbers speak for themselves.
While he said he supports social distancing, the widespread shuttering of economies worldwide constitutes a demonstrable error in light of those statistics. In Israels case, he noted, about 140 people normally die every day. To have shuttered much of the economy because of a virus that is killing one or two a day is a radical error that is unnecessarily costing Israel 20% of its GDP, he charged.
(Excerpt) Read more at timesofisrael.com ...
Told my wife about this story when I saw it the other day; she is not the believing type.
God is in control.
The numbers (40 and 70) are Biblically significant! Coincidence?
Again. God is in control.
Someone forgot to tell Bozo the Modeler
This would be around Memorial Day for most of the country.
Get tough or die.
Flu season is controlled by UV from the sun. As the sunlight weakens in November, the UV A and B fall off due to the longer distance sunlight has to travel to the surface of the earth. UV is very effective at killing viruses. Radiation is controlled by time, distance, and shielding. The longer travel through the atmosphere through late fall and winter weakens UV, and allows the flu viruses to spread. Spring, the UV strengthens, killing the virus on your clothes, steering wheel, and everything else when you go outside, stopping the spread. We haven’t developed “herd immunity” so this virus will probably be just as bad next flu season.
The left will be praying for that second wave.
First thing that came to mind as well. Also On Good Friday New York reported 777 new cases. Easter Sunday there were 105 tornadoes (pretty sure this amount is highly unusual?). There’s a coupla other peculiarities but too sleepy to recall.
Yup. But try telling that to a bunch of them around here. They won’t listen. But, they will at the Great White Throne. The ones that tell me that they don’t believe, I just tell them: well you had better be right. Do so at your own peril. Simple as that.
Covid-19 is a novel beast, very likely with “gain of function” tricks added in the Wuhan bio-lab. We don’t know if people will achieve true immunity (almost undetectable antibodies) and we don’t know if it’ll fade with the summer.
Other factors seem to be in play that we don’t fully understand yet. And many with serious cases who recover from hospitalization have severely damaged hearts, lungs, kidneys etc. Some call it “Airborne AIDS.”
As far as warm weather stopping it, this does not seem to be the case in Ecuador or the Philippines.
Ecuador confirma un desfase de 5.700 muertos en Guayas
Apr 16, 2020
Unas 6.703 personas fallecieron los primeros 15 días de abril de 2020 en Guayas, la provincia ecuatoriana más golpeada por la pandemia del coronavirus, informó Jorge Wated, presidente de BanEcuador y designado como líder de la Fuerza de Tarea Conjunta para el manejo de los fallecidos en Guayaquil, capital de esta entidad.
Ecuador confirms a gap of 5,700 deaths in Guayas
Some 6,703 people died in the first 15 days of April 2020 in Guayas, the Ecuadorian province hardest hit by the coronavirus pandemic, reported Jorge Wated, president of BanEcuador and appointed as leader of the Joint Task Force for the management of those killed in Guayaquil, capital of this entity.
. . . . . .
Just do a YouTube search on Guayaquil Ecuador and filter for today. This is a huge story in South America, but it’s barely being covered in the USA, I guess because we have enough problems of our own.
The Ecuador experience shows how deadly Covid-19 is in a 3rd world country where the hospitals were overwhelmed in the first days of the outbreak about 3 weeks ago.
Coronavirus was brought to Ecuador by Spanish visitors “bugging out” to their 2nd homes. (Ecuador had some of the cheapest beachfront property around, and became a popular vacation/2nd home destination for European, especially Spaniards.)
It very well may, but locking down after 70 days is going to provide very few benefits compared to costs. I'd say the same is probably true after 3 cycles of 14 days (April 24th in our area) or certainly after 4 such cycles (May 10th).
Every time I go out for a grocery run or a Chick-fil-A or Burger King run in our neighborhood, I also pass the Wal-Mart and the parking lot is always packed like it is a Black Friday. Clearly, it is the most dangerous place in the county in terms of crowding. Much more so than my local workout place which was forced to shut down on about day 4 where it was the same 14 people or so that were early morning exercisers and staff day after day.
Here I am wondering when we can change the channel from this shit show. Will we get back to making America Great Again soon?
Thanks for being Bozo the Modeler’s top FR fanboy.
A lot of people on this forum have said that they thought they had this back in December? That was more than 100 days ago.
Yeah, Covid-19 is all just a big hoax. All the flubros agree, it’s just the common cold!
Coronavirus Ravages the Lungs. It Also Affects the Brain.
As Covid-19 cases mount, doctors are seeing patients who are experiencing symptoms like seizures, hallucinations and loss of smell and taste
Theres More Bad News on the Long-Term Effects of the Coronavirus
The coronavirus may have severe impacts on liver and heart function in some patients
For survivors of severe COVID-19, beating the virus is just the beginning
What are the long-term health consequences of COVID-19?
Early evidence indicates some COVID-19 survivors may find their bodies changed long-term by the disease.
Coronavirus infection may cause lasting damage throughout the body, doctors fear
I complained about this article (on Instapundit) yesterday.
The author(s) did not show a single graph to support any of the claims. And when you click on the link to the original Israelis prof article, it was all (text and graphs) in Hebrew.
Not very helpful. Maybe because I’m kind of a simpleton graph/graphy guy.
Airborne AIDS? Yeah, ok. Nice panic trolling.
It’s a novel respiratory virus that can cause a cytokine storm, leading to multiple organ dysfunction (MODS).
It takes weeks, months sometimes to recover from Pneumonia, due to remodeling in the airways. It took me four months to recover from viral pneumonia back in 2015.
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