Posted on 04/14/2020 11:29:16 AM PDT by yesthatjallen
The COVID-19 outbreak that has infected more than half a million Americans is killing people or causing them to become seriously ill at vastly different rates in different states, baffling scientists who are still learning about the coronavirus that causes the illness.
The virus so far has killed at least 23,529 people in the United States, a case fatality rate of just over 4 percent.
But the true mortality rate of COVID-19 is almost certainly much lower. Studies have showed that many infected with the virus show no symptoms, or nothing worse than a common cold, suggesting that the actual number of people who have contracted the virus is much larger than the 579,390 who had tested positive as of Tuesday morning.
The worst outcomes have come in states with the highest number of cases. Experts said that is likely a function of state rules that govern who is eligible to get one of the limited number of tests available: Only those who are sickest, and thus most likely to die from the disease, are tested, while those who are likely to make a speedy recovery are sent home to convalesce.
“In lots of places that are hard hit, what they have to do is limit testing to those who have symptoms, and sometimes pretty severe symptoms,” said Amira Roess, an epidemiologist and global health expert at George Mason University’s College of Health and Human Services.
“Different states are having to make testing decisions. They're having to change their testing policies as they move through the epidemic.”
SNIP
(Excerpt) Read more at thehill.com ...
You could look at demographics, but that’s not quite PC, so they have to be quietly ignored.
Whats different?
Treatment protocols
Populations
Virus
Environment
Really, scientific inquiry takes time. People are very impatient.
What’s new. That is the way it always is.
We have a numerator and denominator problem. We have no idea what the denominator is and with them classifying almost everything as a covid death we have a big numerator problem.
I suspect it is also a function of how they record the cause of death.
Are you saying that if someone has the virus and never fealt any symptoms, and the disease had just about run its course when someone runs a red light and T-bones their motorcycle then it's wrong to count that as a Chinese Virus death?
The nation should not be on shutdown waiting for data
This is not smallpox or the Black Plague.
The shut down was to try and keep the healthcare system from collapsing. Ventilators are being made at a fast clip. So are PPEs. The urgency has diminished. Hence the need for the shut down has also
Set us free
Sweden has a case mortality rate of 9%.
Are they only testing the very sick? Or is their treatment protocols off? Or something genetic? Or something else?
Sum Ting Wong.
Treatment protocols>>>>>
Some areas saw an effective use of Hydroxi-chloroquine based therapy, combined with Zinc supplement and antibiotic ( mostly Azithromycin).
Much of the doctor based success with this off label therapy was not reported because the CDC, FDA and HHS did not want any data except from sources of specifically designed tests , which have not yet been completed. That keeps most of the necesary evidence in the anecdotal category, but it likely had a tremendous effect on reducing the deaths , much more reduction than the models excluding that data predicted.
The model used therefore is not appropriate, and omitting the HCQ data from physicians using it is actually politically motivated.
Very bad for America.
I read that there are actually 3 variants of the virus. Some are more deadly than others.
I have two anecdotal observations that have impacted my understanding of the general populations interpretation of danger.
Lesson 1: Many people don’t recognize danger when it hits them in the face. I was attending a education conference with about 30 CPA’s. We were instructed to evacuate because there was an armed bank robbery in process ac cross the street from our classroom. When everyone exited the building everyone but me went to the front of the building to see what was happening. For some reason they didn’t understand that bullets would be able to travel the distance.
Lesson 2: About 1 month after 9-11 I checked prices of flights and cruises. They were so low it cost less to travel than to stay home. Everyone was terrified of another hijack. When actually the airports had more national guards than passengers and everyone was watching everyone else. It was probably never safer to fly.
In mass, people both exaggerate danger and underestimate it in extremes.
Have noticed people do that. Very interesting...
I agree with all you wrote.
My point, poorly expressed, was that an actual complete understanding of this virus in all its aspects will not be known for years.
That there are open questions is just how research toward understanding takes place in time.
Yet journalists and governors, who could not get a D on an immunology or virology or medical statistics exam, and who two months ago never heard the words and concepts they are using with such swagger, think they know so much that their unexamined biases should dictate our public policies.
A point of information: the method in most states for determining the cause of death for this is to review the morbidity and determine if the person would have died at this time from that. For example, if the patient had known heart disease, would they have been alive had they not had the virus.
By the way this is exactly the same method used when the CDC reviews death certificates to estimate flu deaths. If you tested positive for the flu, and died from heart failure—it’s a flu related illness.
My point is, you are paying attention now. This is the way it’s been done all along. And a Medicare patient that dies of CV is not going to earn the hospital any more than someone dying of heart failure. There is no financial incentive to miscode them.
Were they riding a Chang Jiang 650?
Then yes
I retired from U of M last year as Sr Reimbursement Analyst and my specialty was Medicare, Medicaid reimbursement, rates, drg’s, tracking admits, discharges, ICD-10 codes, modifiers of coding, re-admits, cash payments from Medicare and Medicaid.
Our hospital will get an average of around 20K=30K extra for Medicare patient with Corona. Just FYI.
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