Posted on 04/14/2020 8:21:31 AM PDT by Hojczyk
The theory behind curve-flattening is not that the virus will mysteriously disappear while we are all hunkered down, and we will emerge when it is safe to come out. That won’t happen. The point of curve-flattening is to prolong the epidemic, making it last longer than it otherwise would, as you can see in the curve-flattening diagrams. That way, more or less the same number will get sick and the same percentage will die, with one exception: our hospitals will not be overwhelmed by a crush of COVID-19 cases, and so ICU rooms and so on will be available for those who need them. That was the point of the shutdowns–to flatten the curve by stretching out the epidemic.
We know now, the COVID-19 virus was grossly overestimated, at least with respect to the demand its victims would place on hospitals. Weirdly, it is not easy to find a definitive figure for the number of hospitalizations to date. The Centers for Disease Control estimates, if you do the arithmetic, that as of April 4 around 41,250 people were hospitalized due to COVID-19, which seems too low. The COVID Tracking Project pegs it at 62,673 as of April 13. Does that sound like a lot of hospitalizations? As usual, the numbers need a context.
During last year’s flu season, according to the CDC, 490,561 people in the U.S. were hospitalized due to the seasonal flu virus. The prior year, it was 810,000 flu hospitalizations. This explains why, as we noted here, America’s hospitals have not been overwhelmed by the number of Wuhan flu sufferers, not even in New York City.
Once again, government officials are making decisions with catastrophic effects on many millions of lives, on the basis of models that have proved to be wrong. The shutdowns should end tomorrow.
(Excerpt) Read more at powerlineblog.com ...
Hmmmm....
Well none.
She still feeds me very well. I’ll be 78 in two weeks so some attention is not relevant
We are stupid. We pick the dumbest, most corrupt among us, to lead us.
“”””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””
Are you talking about President Trump?
We had zucchini with dinner last night yum!
yes the virus is so fast that my hospital basically is half full with staff being told to stay at home and wait for the “surge”.....the surge never happened...
My wife and I played Monopoly just last night. So I'm okay.
Except that neither the X axis or the Y axis of the graph shows total deaths. If Hinderaker has any evidence showing that doing nothing would reduce the total number of deaths, or even keep them roughly equal to those who died with protective measures, then I wish he'd trot it out.
Math doesn’t care what “experts”, or anyone else, thinks. :)
Hinderacker further writes “During last year’s flu season, according to the CDC, 490,561 people in the U.S. were hospitalized due to the seasonal flu virus. The prior year, it was 810,000 flu hospitalizations. This explains why, as we noted here, America’s hospitals have not been overwhelmed by the number of Wuhan flu sufferers, not even in New York City.”
Take a look at #FilmYourHospital for citizen-filmed evidence that hospitals across the country are not busy except in NYC.
I’d not be counting on an effective vaccine. We have no vaccine for the common cold and the flu vaccines are not necessarily safe or effective.
The theory behind curve-flattening is not that the virus will mysteriously disappear while we are all hunkered down, and we will emerge when it is safe to come out. That won’t happen. The point of curve-flattening is to prolong the epidemic, making it last longer than it otherwise would, as you can see in the curve-flattening diagrams. That way, more or less the same number will get sick and the same percentage will die, with one exception: our hospitals will not be overwhelmed by a crush of COVID-19 cases, and so ICU rooms and so on will be available for those who need them.
The virus spreads quickly. The virus that is harmless to 99.9% of those infected. Don’t confuse having the virus as having the disease.
It not just healthcare capacity, it’s also so healthcare works don’t become sick which would dramatically reduce capacity.
the shutdown I am beginning to realize was for reasons other than protecting all us slobs and rabble out here.....
Sorry. I’m too busy flattening my checking account.
“We are stupid. We pick the dumbest, most corrupt among us, to lead us.”
Don’t be so obvious with your Trump hatred.
Try running an integration of the numbers beneath each curve for not only number of cases, but number of deaths. It might surprise that the numbers between the two curves are pretty close to the same, maybe higher under the protective measures curve because the length of time is stretched out further. Lock the population away and you protect them from exposure which means you now have a large part of the population who has built no immunity (herd immunity) and are now more vulnerable to the virus than if nothing had been done. Vaccines to these viruses do not build lasting immunity which is why we immunize against flu and pneumonia every year. Flattening the curve is only useful to slow the infection rate while massing resources to fight it. After a week or two, it makes things worse.
“neither the X axis or the Y axis of the graph shows total deaths”
-
uhhhh ... maybe because deaths is not what is being graphed?
Whatever the correct strategy was for completely tanking the entire US, no global economy, what seems abundantly clear at this moment is that Democrats and their corrupt MSM partners have a vested interest in keeping America shut down.
Once the robust Trump economy was terminated Trump’s strongest campaign plank was removed. And now, the media and Democrats prey on abject fear of the populace to keep everything locked down. Democrats can now easily frame EVERYTHING as safety and protecting people. The move, especially among Dem governors to reopen their states will be as slow as they can politically get away with. THe longer they can hamstring the economy, the better chance they have of getting Trump. This is their clear strategy.
You are right. People in places without a significant outbreak yet don't see the load on the healthcare system that happens when there is a rapid growth of cases, and the large number of deaths and severe illness concentrated into a small period of time. Avoiding a sudden, amplified version of what is happening in New York is very important.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.