Posted on 04/14/2020 3:37:32 AM PDT by DoughtyOne
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COVID-19 Update
As of 04/13/2020 23:31 PDST (taken at 23:59)
Good morning everyone.
Thank you for stopping by to check out the COVID-19 Update.
Links to Data Sources Used to Create the COVID-19 Update: Located near the bottom of this post.
Links to other resources: Near the bottom of this post.
Commentary, Special Reports, and COVID-19 Update Information4: Interesting Tid-bits (hopefully)
18:33 PDST: From the NewsBreak App, the WHO has Anounced 2 Millionth COVID-19 Case
At the moment they did that, I found 1,918,855 cases on JHU, and 1,924,662 on WoM.
I suspect the World Health Organization should know, but one wonders why Johns Hopkins
University and WorldoMeters is that far behind, or why the WHO is that far ahead.
WHO: 2,019,320 JHU: 1,918,855 WoM: 1,924,662
The United Kingdom's Number have been Added to the 4 Nation Study
We now have the numbers for the United Kingdon in the former 4 Nation study, now making
it a five nation study.
If You're Interested, Please Check Out the Five Nation & Sweden Study Below
I added figures on deaths and mortality so that these nations can be compared to each
other more easily.
Studying the Way the Reports are Disbursed on Certain Days of the Week
I'll be keeping tabs on the daily tallies by the day of the week for a while.
This report now resides down below the Saturation Rate and Infection Perecentage
figures at the bottom of the Global Section. A chart has been added.
the Mortality Report
The Mortality Figures Have Become of Interest Due to Perceptions of them Dropping
Here are figures of the rolling upward totals for four entities.
global osChina osUS
. Global osChina
DATE the US . . Global
-
03/07 17 480 497 3,594
03/08 21 685 706 3,825
03/09 26 864 890 4,026
03/10 28 1,094 1,122 4,284
03/11 38 1,428 1,466 4,638
03/12 40 1,508 1,548 4,720
03/13 47 2,189 2,236 5,429
03/14 57 2,573 2,630 5,833
03/15 69 3,227 3,296 6,513
03/16 85 3,839 3,924 7,154
03/17 113 4,599 4,712 7,954
03/18 140 5,407 5,547 8,810
03/19 196 6,557 6,753 10,030
03/20 252 7,858 8,110 11,399
03/21 329 9,411 9,740 13,049
03/22 396 10,909 11,305 14,706
03/23 428 12,632 13,060 16,563
03/24 581 14,766 15,347 18,919
03/25 753 16,890 17,643 21,308
03/26 1,301 19,484 20,785 24,077
03/27 1,704 22,762 24,466 27,761
03/28 2,229 25,293 27,522 30,852
03/29 2,488 28,226 30,714 34,018
03/30 3,170 31,345 34,515 37,820
03/31 4,055 34,987 39,042 42,354
04/01 5,112 38,837 43,949 47,261
04/02 6,095 43,743 49,838 53,160
04/03 7,403 48,208 55,611 58,937
04/04 8,454 53,012 61,466 64,795
04/05 9,620 56,563 66,183 69,514
04/06 10,943 60,542 71,485 74,816
04/07 12,875 65,937 78,812 82,145
04/08 14,797 70,417 85,214 88,549
04/09 16,691 75,718 92,409 95,745
04/10 18,747 80,667 99,414 102,753
04/11 20,580 84,948 105,528 108,867
04/12 22,115 88,813 110,923 114,269
04/13 23,644 92,745 116,389 119,730
Here's the chart to go along with those figures.
Here are figures revealing the daily growth for those four entities.
global osChina osUS
. Global osChina
DATE the US . . Global
-
03/08 4 205 209 231
03/09 5 179 184 201
03/10 2 230 232 258
03/11 10 334 344 54
03/12 2 80 82 82
03/13 7 681 688 709
03/14 10 384 394 404
03/15 12 654 666 680
03/16 16 612 628 641
03/17 28 760 788 800
03/18 27 808 835 856
03/19 56 1,150 1,206 1,220
03/20 56 1,301 1,357 1,369
03/21 77 1,553 1,630 1,650
03/22 67 1,498 1,565 1,657
03/23 32 1,723 1,755 1,857
03/24 153 2,134 2,287 2,356
03/25 172 2,124 2,296 2,389
03/26 548 2,594 3,142 2,769
03/27 403 3,278 3,681 3,684
03/28 525 2,531 3,056 3,091
03/29 259 2,933 3,192 166
03/30 682 3,119 3,801 3,802
03/31 885 3,642 4,527 4,534
04/01 1,057 3,850 4,907 4,907
04/02 983 4,906 5,889 5,899
04/03 1,308 4,465 5,773 5,777
04/04 1,051 4,804 5,855 5,858
04/05 1,166 3,551 4,717 4,719
04/06 1,323 3,979 5,302 5,302
04/07 1,932 5,395 7,327 7,329
04/08 1,922 4,480 6,402 6,404
04/09 1,894 5,301 7,195 7,196
04/10 2,056 4,949 7,005 7,008
04/11 1,833 4,252 6,085 6,085
04/12 1,535 3,865 5,400 5,402
04/13 1,529 2,932 5,461 5,461
Here's the chart to go with it
I think the daily growth chart helps out a lot there. Each day things look a little
better, so I am comfortable saying that for the moment both the global and U. S.
incidents of mortality, are declining.
Here's one more set of numbers, that address only the United States
Concept for this, courtesy of AppyPappy
They address the accumulating Mortality figures and the percentage growth daily
since 03/15/2020.
EOD ACCUM INCR
DAILY OVER DAILY
DEATH PREV PERCENT
DATE TOTALS DAY GROWTH
-
03/14 57
03/15 69 12 21.05%
03/16 85 16 23.19%
03/17 113 28 32.94%
03/18 140 27 23.89%
03/19 196 56 40.00%
03/20 252 56 28.57%
03/21 329 77 30.56%
03/22 396 67 20.36%
03/23 428 32 8.08%
03/24 581 153 35.75%
03/25 753 172 29.60%
03/26 1,301 548 72.78%
03/27 1,704 403 30.98%
03/28 2,229 525 30.81%
03/29 2,488 259 11.62%
03/30 3,170 682 27.41%
03/31 4,055 885 27.92%
04/01 5,112 1,057 26.07%
04/02 6,095 983 19.23%
04/03 7,403 1,308 21.46%
04/04 8,454 1,051 14.20%
04/05 9,620 1,166 13.79%
04/06 10,943 1,323 13.75%
04/07 12,875 1,932 17.66%
04/08 14,797 1,922 14.93%
04/09 16,691 1,894 12.80%
04/10 18,747 2,056 12.32%
04/11 20,580 1,833 9.78%
04/12 22,115 1,535 7.46%
04/13 23,644 1,529 7.46%
Clearly the number and percentage of fatalities is declining in the U. S. at the
moment.
The Following Addresses the Numbers Here in
the United States of America
Yesterday's Growth Rates Dropped off a Little More
Declared Cases in the United States
EOD DAY'S INCR'SD
DATE CASES GRWTH GROWTH
-
03/20 19,624 5,374 539
03/21 26,747 7,123 1,749
03/22 35,206 8,459 1,336
03/23 46,442 11,236 2,777
03/24 54,893 8,789 -2,427
03/25 60,197 13,966 5,177
03/26 85,991 16,794 2,828
03/27 104,839 18,848 2,054
03/28 124,665 19,826 978
03/29 143,025 18,360 -1,466
03/30 164,620 21,595 3,235
03/31 189,624 25,004 3,409
04/01 216,721 27,097 2,093
04/02 245,559 28,838 1,741
04/03 278,458 32,899 4,061
04/04 312,237 33,779 899
04/05 337,638 25,401 -8,378
04/06 368,376 30,738 5,337
04/07 399,929 31,553 815
04/08 435,160 35,231 3,678
04/09 466,299 31,139 -4,092
04/10 501,609 35,310 4,171
04/11 529,951 28,342 -6,968
04/12 557,590 27,639 -703
04/13 582,594 25,004 -2,635
Well, we're not coming off a weekend now. The numbers are looking a lot better.
Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, & Serious/Critical Cases
in the United States
Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Crital here, courtesy of amorphous
ACTIVE SERIOUS
DATE FATAL RECOV RESOLV CASES CRITICAL
-
03/20 252 152 404 19,220
03/21 329 176 505 26,242
03/22 396 178 574 34,632
03/23 428 178 606 45,836
03/24 581 354 935 54,296
03/25 753 619 1,372 67,825
03/26 1,301 1,868 3,169 82,822
03/27 1,704 2,622 4,326 100,513
03/28 2,229 3,231 5,460 119,205
03/29 2,488 4,562 7,050 135,975
03/30 3,170 5,507 8,677 155,943
03/31 4,055 7,251 11,306 178,318
04/01 5,112 8,878 13,990 202,731 5,005
04/02 6,095 10,403 16,498 229,061 5,421
04/03 7,403 12,283 19,686 258,772 5,787
04/04 8,454 14,825 23,279 288,958 5,870
04/05 9,620 17,977 27,597 310,041 8,702
04/06 10,943 19,810 30,753 337,623 8,983
04/07 12,875 22,711 34,586 365,343 9,169
04/08 14,797 22,891 37,688 397,472 9,279
04/09 16,691 25,928 42,619 423,680 10,011
04/10 18,747 27,314 46,061 455,548 10,917
04/11 20,580 30,502 51,082 478,869 11,471
04/12 22,115 32,634 54,749 502,841 11,766
04/13 23,644 36,948 60,592 522,002 12,772
Note that on the 10th, the U. S. had over 2,000 fatalities. Now we've had three days
since with less than 2,000.
Our Slice of the COVID-19 Pie Continues to Grow
There are a number of factors than can have impact on why we have so many of the global
cases. Perhaps we're ramping up the testing more than others.
Here is what those numbers looked like at the end of the day yesterday. Maybe the virus
was here a lot earlier than we thought. It's hard to tell.
DECLARED DAY'S ACTIVE DAY'S
DATE CASES CHGE CASES CHGE
-
03/20 7.125% 1.297% 10.934% 1.552%
03/21 8.704% 1.579% 13.000% 2.066%
03/22 10.377% 1.673% 15.343% 2.343%
03/23 12.170% 1.793% 17.411% 2.068%
03/24 13.053% 0.883% 18.369% 0.958%
03/25 14.657% 1.604% 20.190% 1.821%
03/26 16.140% 1.483% 21.454% 1.264%
03/27 17.530% 1.390% 22.920% 1.466%.
03/28 18.742% 1.212% 24.126% 1.206%
03/29 19.762% 1.020% 25.289% 1.163%
03/30 20.936% 1.174% 26.777% 1.488%
03/31 22.045% 1.109% 27.885% 1.108%
04/01 23.110% 1.065% 29.120% 1.235%
04/02 24.160% 1.050% 30.482% 1.362%
04/03 24.886% 0.726% 31.057% 0.575%
04/04 25.935% 1.049% 32.400% 1.343%
04/05 26.464% 0.529% 32.866% 0.466%
04/06 27.324% 0.860% 34.153% 1.287%
04/07 27.930% 0.606% 34.854% 0.701%
04/08 28.634% 0.704% 36.125% 1.271%
04/09 29.091% 0.457% 36.790% 0.665%
04/10 29.523% 0.432% 37.363% 0.573%
04/11 29.812% 0.289% 37.872% 0.509%
04/12 30.124% 0.312% 38.500% 0.628%
04/13 30.332% 0.208% 38.714% 0.214%
The percentages of growth in our slice of the pie, are growing more slowly.
The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
without Mainland China
Global Cases Increased to Record Levels Today, Outside M/L China
Yes, back to still more numbers...
EOD DAY'S INCR'SD
DATE CASES GROWTH GROWTH - compared to day before
-
03/20 194,148 30,824 5,185
03/21 225,932 31,784 963
03/22 257,820 31,888 104
03/23 297,172 39,352 7,464
03/24 341,530 41,462 2,110
03/25 390,378 48,848 7,386
03/26 451,006 60,628 11,780
03/27 516,124 65,118 4,490
03/28 583,107 66,983 1,865
03/29 641,588 58,481 -8,502
03/30 704,051 62,463 3,982
03/31 777,887 73,836 11,373
04/01 855,389 77,502 3,666
04/02 933,937 78,548 1,046
04/03 1,036,395 102,458 23,910
04/04 1,121,349 84,954 -17,054
04/05 1,193.215 71,866 -13,088
04/06 1,265,487 72,272 386
04/07 1,349,117 83,630 11,358
04/08 1,436,669 87,552 3,922
04/09 1,519,961 83,292 -4,260
04/10 1,616,016 96,055 12,763
04/11 1,694,570 78,554 -17,501
04/12 1,767,831 73,261 -5,293
04/13 1,838,067 70,236 -3,025
I am really liking the direction of those growth numbers. Toss out the last two
Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active, and Serious/Crical Cases
Globally, Excluding M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Crital here, courtesy of amorphous
ACTIVE SERIOUS
DATE FATAL RECOV RESOLV CASES CRITICAL
-
03/20 8,110 16,393 24,503 169,645
03/21 9,740 19,995 29,735 196,197
03/22 11,305 25,485 36,790 221,030
03/23 13,060 28,470 41,530 258,538
03/24 15,347 35,256 50,603 290,927
03/25 17,643 40,467 58,210 332,168
03/26 20,785 48,084 68,869 382,137
03/27 24,466 56,801 81,267 434,857
03/28 27,522 64,777 92,299 490,808
03/29 30,714 76,342 107,056 534,532
03/30 34,515 89,989 124,504 579,547
03/31 39,052 102,121 141,163 636,724
04/01 43,949 118,092 162,041 693,348
04/02 49,838 135,204 185,042 748,895
04/03 55,611 150,014 205,625 839,770
04/04 61,466 170,309 231,775 889,574 41,993
04/05 66,183 185,921 252,104 941,111 45,633
04/06 71,485 208,635 280,120 985,367 47,201
04/07 78,812 224,264 303,076 1,046,041 47,743
04/08 85,214 253,546 338,760 1,097,909 47,990
04/09 92,409 278,059 370,468 1,149,493 49,001
04/10 99,443 299,451 398,894 1,217,122 49,692
04/11 105,528 326,847 432,375 1,262,195 50,485
04/12 110,928 352,960 463,888 1,303,943 50,735
04/13 116,389 375,551 491,940 1,346,127 51,035
Still expecting to see elevated numbers of recoveries any day now.
Beginning to think they aren't reporting recoveries very well. Looking back two
weeks, we were seeing many more new cases than we are seeing resolved now.
Grrrrrrrr...
Flattening...
There is flattening going on in the Global scene outside China and the U. S. Right now.
Lets review the situation again.
Here: (case growth)
-
Global Global (EC)
Excluding Minus the
China the U. S. U. S.
03/29 58,481 38,955 19,826
03/30 62,463 40,868 21,595
03/31 73,836 48,832 25,004
04/01 77,502 50,405 27,097
04/02 78,548 49,710 28,838
04/03 102,458 69,559 32,899
04/04 84,954 51,111 33,843
04/05 71,866 46,465 25,401
04/06 72,272 41,534 30,738
04/07 83,630 52,077 31,553
04/08 87,552 52,321 35,231
04/09 83,292 52,153 31,139
04/10 96,055 60,745 35,310
04/11 78,554 50,212 28,342
04/12 73,261 45,622 27,639
04/13 70,236 45,323 25,004
That center row of figures there, shows how the rest of the world is doing without
U. S. and China's numbers tossed in. There is definitely drop off taking place.
The figures for the United States and the global osChina and osUS numbers all look
good there.
Special Section on France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the U. K.
Case growth.
Lets Look at Some Numbers in Five Day Increments:
DATE FRANCE GERMANY ITALY SPAIN The U K - 02/20 12 16 3 2 9 02/25 14 18 322 9 13 03/01 100 117 1,128 76 36 03/06 -- 653 -- 670 -- 4,636 -- 401 -- 164 03/11 2,284 1,966 12,462 2,277 459 03/16 6,650 7,272 27,980 9,942 1,553 03/21 14,485 22,364 53,578 25,496 5,067 03/26 -- 29,566 -- 43,938 -- 80,589 -- 57,786 -- 11,812 03/31 52,819 68,180 105,792 94,417 25,481 04/05 93,780 100,123 128,948 131,646 44,440 04/10 125,931 122,171 147,577 158,273 74,605 04/13 137,877 130,072 159,516 170,099 89,571 < 3 days not five - Deaths 14,967 3,194 20,465 17,756 11,329 - Populace 93.00m 83.02m 60.36m 46.94m 66.65m - C P M 1m 1,483 1,567 2,643 3,406 1,344 - D P M 1m 161 38 339 356 170
Just keeping an eye on these nations, and for the first time today, we have
the U. K. added in.
Cases Per Million and Deaths Per Million figures help to compare nations.
Sweden and It's Neighbors, Who Has the Best Tactic Againt COVID-19?
Sweeden is doing their own thing with regard to isolating. I'm cheking to see if they
have the right idea or not. I'm not convinced either way at this point.
Here are some numbers to help us look at this issue.
DATE SWEDEN DENMARK FINLAND NORWAY - 02/21 1 0 1 0 02/26 2 0 1 1 03/02 15 4 6 25 03/07 -- 161 -- 27 -- 19 -- 156 03/12 599 617 59 702 03/17 1,196 1,024 321 1,471 03/22 1,934 1,514 626 2,385 03/27 -- 3,069 -- 2,700 -- 1,041 -- 3,771 04/01 4,947 3,290 1,446 4,877 04/06 7,206 4,875 2,176 5,865 04/11 10,151 6,191 2,905 6,409 04/13 10,948 6,513 3,064 6,605 < 2 days not five - Deaths 919 285 59 134 - Populace 10.33m 5.82m 5.53m 5.37m - C P M 1m 1,059 1,119 554 1,230 - D P M 1m 89 49 11 25
These cases grew over a respectable amount of time. Sweden doesn't look so bad
at all when you look at the Cases Per Million. It's the deaths that look worse.
That DPM number isn't what I'd call a super bad number. And their economy isn't
ready to retreat back to the late 1920s.
The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
including Mainland China*
Mainland China numbers make up 00.16% of today's cases globally
Nations With Lots of Cases
At the end of the day yesterday, there were:
1 nation(s) with 550,000 plus (take a bow...) 4 nation(s) with 100,000 to 199,999 4 nation(s) with 50,000 to 99,999 5 natiom(s) with 20,000 to 49,999 8 nation(s) with 10,000 to 19,999 12 nation(s) with 5,000 to 9,999 38 nation(s) with 1,000 to 4,999There are currently 72 nations with a 1,000 count or above...
A Look at Declared, Resolved, and Active Cases, Includes M/L China
End of day figures follow:
DECLAR DAY'S RESOLVED DAY'S PCT DEC ACTIVE
DATE CASES GROWTH CASES GROWTH CS RESOL CASES
-
03/20 - 275,434 - 30,911 - 99,655 - 3,590 - 36.181% - 175,779
03/21 307,280 31,846 105,425 5,770 34.309% 201,855
03/22 339,259 31,979 113,540 8,115 33.467% 225,719
03/23 - 381,621 - 42,362 - 118,369 - 4,829 - 31.017% - 263,252
03/24 423,121 41,500 127,538 9,169 30.142% 295,583
03/25 472,109 48,998 136,178 8,640 28.845% 335,931
03/26 - 532,788 - 60.679 - 146,749 - 10,571 - 27.544% - 386,039
03/27 598,070 65,282 159,533 12,784 26.675% 438,537
03/28 665,164 67,094 171,077 11,544 25.720% 494,087
03/29 - 723,740 - 58,576 - 186,060 - 14,983 - 25.708% - 537,680
03/30 786,291 62,551 203,926 17,848 25.933% 582,383
03/31 860,181 73,890 220,713 16,085 25.659% 639,468
04/01 - 937,783 - 77,602 - 241,591 - 20,878 - 25.762% - 696,192
04/02 1,016,401 78,618 264,935 23,344 26.066% 751,466
04/03 1,118,921 102,520 285,706 20,771 25.534% 833,215
04/04 - 1,203,923 - 85,002 - 312,068 - 26,362 - 25.931% - 891,855
04/05 1,275,856 71,933 332,513 20,445 26.062% 943,343
04/06 1,348,184 72,328 359,618 27,105 26.674% 988,566
04/07 - 1,431,900 - 83,716 - 383,688 - 24,070 - 26.796% - 1,048,212
04/08 1,519,478 87,848 419,465 35,777 27.606% 1,100,283
04/09 1,602,885 83,407 451,259 31,794 28.153% 1,151,626
04/10 - 1,699,019 - 96,134 - 479,758 - 28,499 - 28.237% - 1,219,261
04/11 1,777,666 78,647 513,239 33,481 28.872% 1,264,427
04/12 1,850,966 73,300 544,892 31,653 29,438% 1,306,074
04/13 1,921,369 70,403 573,019 28,127 29,823% 1,348,350
Over the last ten days, the Global percentage of resolved cases has
What we're looking for is a declining increase in the numbers of active
cases. Once we've seen that become strong, the next thing we'll see
is declining active cases again. I will look at this tomorrow and
see if I can't come up with an estimate of when we can expect to see
active cases begin to decline.
Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active, and Serious/Crical Cases
Globally, Including M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Crital here, courtesy of amorphous
ACTIVE SERIOUS
DATE FATAL RECOV RESOLV CASES CRITICAL
-
03/20 11,399 88,256 99,655 175,779
03/21 13,049 92,376 105,425 201,855
03/22 14,706 98,834 113,540 225,719
03/23 16,563 101,806 118,369 263,252
03/24 18,919 108,619 127,358 295,583
03/25 21,308 114,870 136,178 335,931
03/26 24,077 122,672 146,749 386,039
03/27 27,761 131,772 159,533 438,537
03/28 30,852 140,225 171,077 494,087
03/29 34,018 152,042 186,060 537,680
03/30 37,820 166,088 203,908 582,383
03/31 42,354 178,359 220,713 639,468
04/01 47,261 194,330 241,591 696,192
04/02 53,160 211,775 264,935 751,466
04/03 58,937 226,769 285,706 833,215
04/04 64,795 247,273 312,068 891,855 42,288 ch 295
04/05 69,514 262,999 332,513 943,343 45,898 ch 265
04/06 74,816 284,802 359,618 988,566 47,412 ch 211
04/07 82,145 301,543 383,688 1,048,212 47,932 ch 189
04/08 88,549 330,916 419,464 1,100,283 48,166 ch 176
04/09 95,475 355,514 451,259 1,151,626 49,145 ch 144
04/10 102,782 376,976 479,758 1,219,261 49,833 ch 141
04/11 108,867 404,372 513,239 1,264,427 50,624 ch 139
04/12 114,269 430,623 544,892 1,306,074 50,856 ch 121
04/13 119.730 453,289 573,019 1,348,350 51,151 ch 116
Big numbers, but shortly the big Recovery numbers will start coming in. Hey
Population Saturation
Here are figures revealing how many people in each population base represent one case.
I'm also showing what percent of each population base is infected at this time.
1 CASE IN
THIS NUMBER CHANGE CHANGE
OF PEOPLE ON ON
ENTITY 04/13 04/12 04/11 04/13 04/12
-
Globally : 5,763 5,949 6,145 -186 -196
Outside China : 5,772 5,959 6,156 -187 -197
The U. S. A. : 633 657 690 -24 -33
-
INFECTION LEVEL
OF ENTIRE CHANGE CHANGE
POPULACE ON ON
ENTITY 04/13 04/12 04/11 04/13 04/12
-
Globally : 00.0166% 00.0161% 00.0155% 00.0005% 00.0006%
Outside China : 00.0211% 00.0204% 00.0198% 00.0007% 00.0006%
The U. S. A. : 00.1580% 00.1522% 00.1449% 00.0058% 00.0073%
These saturation rates are troubling. The percentge of our populace infected is too,
Daily Case Report Evaluation
I'll be keeping tabs on the daily tallies for days of the week for a while. Folks have
noticed some patterns of larger and smaller data entry on certaind days, and on Fridays
sometimes the numbers get noticably larger because of it.
Let's check out the numbers and a chart.
Wk/of Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon - 03/06 2,223 2,265 2,962 3,801 3,977 3,876 4,411 03/13 4,411 4,680 2,085 17,028 11,031 13,847 12,158 03/20 15,748 20,668 25,700 30,911 31,846 31,979 42,362 03/27 41,500 48,988 60,679 65,282 67,094 58,576 62,551 04/03 73,890 77,602 78,618 102,520 85,002 71,933 72,328 04/10 72,328 87,578 83,407 96,134 78,647 73,300 70,403
Friday's do seem to have a bias in favor of larger reports of new cases.
I'll keep tracking this for at least a few more weeks to give folks a chance to detect
patterns not only on Fridays, but other days as well.
States of the Union, the District of Columbia, and Territories...
I still have this available in the Excel format, linked below. I thought folks might
like to have access to it here. I list the states alphabetically. On the right side
of that listing is the ranking number in the list by descending cases. Look up your
state alphabetiall, get that number, and look at the list on the right to find look
at how the other states stand next to yours.
Here is the Standing of 200 Counties in the U. S.
I still have this available in the Excel format, linked below. I thought folks might
like to have access to it here. I list the Counties alphabetically. On the right
side of that listing is the ranking number in the list by descending cases. You can
look to see if your county is listed. Hopefully not... If you find it, you can look
at the numberical list to compare to other counties.
Here are the Mortality Figures for the States
I still have this available in the Excel format, linked below. I thought folks might
like to have access to it here. I list the States alphabetically. On the right
side of that listing is the ranking number in the list by descending cases. You can
find your state using the alphabetical side, then compare it using the numberical side.
Here's what it's all about. From January 20th to the present.
This concludes our look back at yesterday's data. Take care...
Data for this Report Sourced From:
LINK Johns Hopkins University
The Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE)
LINK WorldoMeters
LINK You are Invited to Review My COVID-19 Spreadsheet (XLSX)
There is not an XLS version available for distribution at this time.
Other Features:
LINK US States DC51, Territories5+, and Counties200
Excel Spreadsheet with Alphabetical and Numerically descending Cases
LINK US States DC51, and Territories5+
Excel Spreadsheet with Alphabetical and Numerically descending Mortality Figures
Links to other resources:
I cannot vouch for these sites. Please use your own discression.
LINK Adventist Health Coronavirus Resource Hub - Scroll down for useful info
LINK CDC Data for Download - Scroll down - Excel required. Includes death stats.
LINK CDC Secondary Data and Statistics - Portal Entry / Look around
LINK Coronavirus (COVID-19) Map
LINK COVID-19 First U.S. Case, Treatment, features Remdesivir
New England Journal of Medicine article
LINK Diamond Princess Review at 634 Case Point of Eventual 712
LINK earlyAlert
LINK Hydroxychloroquine Article: International Poll
Daily Mail Reports, Most Effective Treatment According to 6,000 Physicians
LINK IHME - Institute for Health Matrix and Evaluation
LINK National Institutes of Health - Cornavirus (COVID-19)
LINK New York City - interesting breakdown, burough, age, sex
LINK World Health Organization
Again, nicely done.
It’s important to recognize that “declared cases” got infected up to two weeks ago, so that a flattening or fall in declared cases now is a ten-fourteen day old infection rate, and that we won’t know how the new infection rate yesterday and today are moving until April 27 or so, when yesterday’s new infections have all become patent.
Nice report again.
Thanks
Add me to ping list
Thanks
I would hope the doctors are asking those patients who tested positive as to what day did they start having a symptom such as a sore throat or a mild fever.
I know the doctors are busy and may not have the time to forward that information to their county health department.
Such data would give a better indicator as to how covid progresses.
Thanks again for all the efforts & for a trusted resource to gauge our progress. It’s good to see we are starting to emerge.
New Hampshire Public Health counts cases from symptom onset, but infection starts up to fourteen days before.
The takehome is, “new cases” aren’t new. They were new two weeks ago.
3 days of declining mortality! It looks like we have a trend now.
Thank you for all your work.
I’m interested in what the US would look like if you take New York City out. I’m going to find that data if I can. So be right back...
I was talking to my cousin in Italy about Sweden. She was saying the Swedish prime minister had apologized for not acting sooner and that they were going to start a quarantine effort. This is all hearsay because I haven’t tried to find a source yet.
But I’m really interested in Finland, the way you’ve broken it out now with the cases per million and deaths per million, whatever Finland has done, her numbers are a whole lot lower than her neighbors.
I live in Florida and have not seen any data from our health departments as to date symptoms began.
If other FReepers know about this data in Florida or other states, please post it.
Finland is kinda like Alaska. Namely, pretty isolated from their neighboring states or countries.
While the USA currently has 71 deaths per million people, Alaska only has 11 deaths per million people.
Likewise Canada has 21 deaths per million people.
I checked Worldometer and they are not posting the deaths by province and territory.
I suspect most of the deaths in Canada have occurred in Ontario and British Colombia provinces.
Have anyone seen covid data by Canadian province and territory?
Okay, thanks for figuring that out! Having your lifestyle always be social isolation seems to help.
That will be great news.
Thank you.
I am seeing some promising trends in the worldwide data, as well. I cannot determine if the trends are because of social distancing or because of some seasonality of the virus (plausible, since other coronaviruses show definite seasonality). I'm going to take your US numbers and do an analysis of case growth like I did with worldwide numbers; I'll let everyone know how that looks later on.
Meanwhile, here is the daily worldwide case graph:
3rd order polynomial trendline
2nd order polynomial trendline
I have posted two different equations for the trendline, because the graph is showing the kind of change I was looking for as an indicator of whether the numbers are improving. In the graph, I changed the equation of the trendline for cases to a third order polynomial. This is because a 3rd order polynomial equation is built into Excel and closely approximates (to within thousandths) the exponential function that really describes the graph. Note that the R squared value shows that the actual data points closely match the theoretical data points calculated by the trendline equation. The trendline equation below the graph is a second order polynomial, which until recently was a very good fit for the data. Now, however, the fit is not as good; this is indicated by the lower R squared value, as well as by how far data points fall above or below the trendline (which I am not showing).
Early on, I had said that I was looking for a decrease in R squared as an indicator of when the curve was starting to "flatten" as our national spokesmen have said. I remember that someone raked me over the coals for my methodology because I wasn't doing Fourrier transformations or applying other mathematical functions that really do not apply to the analysis of a growth curve. But here we are... my methodology seems to be holding up pretty well.
The other graph, of the daily change in cases/deaths/recoveries/active cases is also showing a good trend. On that one, the slope of the trendline continues to decrease, meaning that the daily changes are steadily decreasing.
Both the death and recovery rates worldwide have increased, to 6.24% and 23.93%, respectively. The rate of increase in recoveries is higher than the rate of increase in deaths, which is good. However, the death rate continues to increase and will continue until every case is resolved.
Once again, thank you for your work.
To me, the really interesting data is from Mongolia, since it borders China and there was a lot of traffic across that border. They closed their border with China on Jan 26, and only had 30 confirmed cases, of which 5 have recovered and no one has died (yet?). They are currently not allowing anyone to travel into the country. Half of the population of Mongolia lives in Ulaan Bator, which is terribly polluted in the winter months, suggesting a high amount of respiratory problems there. As I recall, Mongolia was one of the first countries to close their border.
I pay attention to the Mongolia situation, because I am fascinated with that country.
Thanks again D1 for your hard work on this, it’s excellent!
Okay, here is what I saw when looking at the US numbers, assuming an R nought of 2.5, using the table you posted above.
The rate of spread in the US—the time it took for 19,624 cases (your first data point) to increase 2.5 fold (to 49060)—took three days. The next 2.5 fold increase (to 122650) took 5 days and the next one (306625) took 7 days. This is in contrast to and faster than the rate of spread in the worldwide agglomerated data, which showed a steady 9 day interval between 2.5 fold increases in cases. However, the rate of spread in the US has slowed down considerably. The next 2.5 fold increase, to 766,563 cases, will occur on Apr 20 or 21 at the current rate of increase—an interval of 16 days.
The quarantine measures are having an effect!
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