Posted on 04/10/2020 2:46:20 AM PDT by DoughtyOne
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COVID-19 Update
As of 04/09/2020 23:19 PDST (taken at 23:59)
Good morning everyone.
Thank you for stopping by to check out this Update.
Be on the Lookout for Somethings New:
A Few Graphs, and Workups on States, Territories, & Counties
Links to other resources: Near the bottom of this post.
Commentary2: Interesting Tid-bits (hopefully)
Yesterday Morning...
Yesterday morning I had a production problem getting the update out. You can skip
this part if you want. It does explain how the numbers yesterday were skewed a bit.
I wanted you to be able to understand what took place, but it may just bore some of
you. It's up to you. I offer it here as an apology for not being quite a judicious
as I should have been.
In preparation for publishing my early morning COVID-19 Update, I spend from roughly
seven in the evening until midnight pre-building the graphis structure that will become
the update. During this period last night I became aware of a potential problem.
I had run my next to last report of the day, which is simply a capturing of data off the
JHU map daily resource online, at about 18:30. At about 19:30 I touched base with the site
again just to check in what direction the numbers were leading. I do that so I can get a
rough idea of the type of commentary I'll be providing. Are things calming, heating up, or
is there something interesting to mention?
When I checked in, there seemed to be a problem with the site. The documentation on the site
indicated there had been an update since I had recorded things an hour earlier, but all the
numbers had gone down noticably since the earlier report. Numbers don't shrink. They grow.
If this wasn't resolved in the next 4.5 hours, I would have some serious problems not only
capturing a meaningful end of day report, but then getting out my update to you. I was
concerned.
As the time passed midnight yesterday morning, there had been no resolution to the problem.
The JHU site was useless to me. In anticipation of this, I had devised a backup plan using
WorldoMeters data. That sounds like a good back-up plan. Well, in theory it was, but...
I just ran another report for today. It will be my last before the end of the day report
today. Because I have automated my system to work with JHU data, I can copy and
paste in data and process it quickly. It took me 12 minutes to update all necessary
changes to the 210 nations I monitor for each report. During that twelve minutes I also
grab data for Global, Global Outside China, and the United States. Last night
implementing the back-up plan using WorldoMeters' informaiton, it took an hour and
fifteen minutes.
The problems are, the data is in a different format. JHU and WoM each of a few nations
the other one doesn't. And using the raw data from WoM causes me to have to devise new
methods on the fly, to get things done. I have to conceptualize the whole thing planning
in advance how each step in the process will go, and how to prevent having to start all
over if something goes wrong. It's very draining.
Last night I finally pulled off getting the last report documented. And then I spent
a few more hours writing, completing graphics, and proof reading and polishing off the
materials as well as I could.
By the end of last night, I was pretty tired. For that reason, several things didn't
come to mind as I wrapped up the enterprise.
These two data providers do not match up 100%. At any given time either of them can
be farther ahead in processing data, which means their numbers can be larger of smaller
than the other sourse. Last night that margin came out to be about 4,000 caseas.
This means that the totals of cases for the day were bumped up. It also means that
numbers for deaths and recoveries were probably elevated also.
That being the case, I should have modified some of my commentary to acknowedge the
dynamic and how it might impact numbers. By the time I was done, I was just trying to
get it out, so I didn't quite complete my job, letting you know about this dynamic. I
am sorry about that. It's not my intent to present misleading data or concepts to you.
Providing complete data is not a problem, because the next day that data would have
been documented and present to you anyway. The thing is, it can skew the numbers of cases
for the day, and that did happen.
I have seen JHU data problems, and I have seen WoM data problems. The other day WoM
had 346,000 U. S. cases documented. I had been in tune with the JHU data, and I was
pretty sure that was about 20,000 cases high. Sure enough, about ten minutes later the
number was corrected downward about 20,000 case, and the grand total had been reduced
by the same amount on WoM.
These places do the best they can. Humans being humans, there are times when
inconsistancies will pop up. They will be corrected. That's life.
Today I am back to using JHU data. What caused our counts to go up yesterday, MAY cause
them to go down today. Keep this in mind as you look at the number. Thanks.
I just want you to know that I try to put out a decent product, and I will try not
to let that happen again. I am develping an automated process for WoM data, so that if
something happens again. It won't impact my process so much. And, if this should happen
again, I'll be sure to keep you informed. Thanks.
Sorry for the miniature book. I just wanted you to be able to fully understand what
took place.
The Inevitabe Counter Attack of the Recovering Humans Continues
Over the last few weeks, I've been watch one favorable thing headed in our direction.
It was the idea that shortly the percentage of global cases that had been resolved
would be growing.
When the counts reaching their largest rate of grown the percentage of cases revolved
continued to plumet. There hadn't been enough people in the pipeline to see a lot
of recoveries. Well, those days have come to an end.
The percentage of resolved cases was stalling in the upper 25.50% range for about a week.
prior to that it had been falling at least a percent per day. Now it rests at 28.153%
and is growing about 0.50% to 0.75% per day.
This does not mean that the number of new cases is going to go down right now. It just means
that we are now poised to fight back in larger numbers as our people are declared recovered.
It's very good news.
The Following Addresses the Numbers Here in
the United States of America
Yesterday's Growth Rate Kept Up the Customary Growth
Declared Cases in the United States
EOD DAY'S INCR'SD
DATE CASES GRWTH GROWTH
-
03/20 19,624 5,374 539
03/21 26,747 7,123 1,749
03/22 35,206 8,459 1,336
03/23 46,442 11,236 2,777
03/24 54,893 8,789 -2,427
03/25 60,197 13,966 5,177
03/26 85,991 16,794 2,828
03/27 104,839 18,848 2,054
03/28 124,665 19,826 978
03/29 143,025 18,360 -1,466
03/30 164,620 21,595 3,235
03/31 189,624 25,004 3,409
04/01 216,721 27,097 2,093
04/02 245,559 28,838 1,741
04/03 278,458 32,899 4,061
04/04 312,237 33,779 899
04/05 337,638 25,401 -8,378
04/06 368,376 30,738 5,337
04/07 399,929 31,553 815
04/08 435,160 35,231 3,678
04/09 466,299 31,139 -4,092
Our number of new cases fit right in with recent growth. I believe some of the numbers from
Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, & Serious/Critical Cases
in the United States
ACTIVE SERIOUS
DATE FATAL RECOV RESOLV CASES CRITICAL
-
03/20 252 152 404 19,220
03/21 329 176 505 26,242
03/22 396 178 574 34,632
03/23 428 178 606 45,836
03/24 581 354 935 54,296
03/25 753 619 1,372 67,825
03/26 1,301 1,868 3,169 82,822
03/27 1,704 2,622 4,326 100,513
03/28 2,229 3,231 5,460 119,205
03/29 2,488 4,562 7,050 135,975
03/30 3,170 5,507 8,677 155,943
03/31 4,055 7,251 11,306 178,318
04/01 5,112 8,878 13,990 202,731 5,005
04/02 6,095 10,403 16,498 229,061 5,421
04/03 7,403 12,283 19,686 258,772 5,787
04/04 8,454 14,825 23,279 288,958 5,870
04/05 9,620 17,977 27,597 310,041 8,702
04/06 10,943 19,810 30,753 337,623 8,983
04/07 12,875 22,711 34,586 365,343 9,169
04/08 14,797 22,891 37,688 397,472 9,279
04/09 16,691 25,928 42,619 423,680 10,011
The numbers continue to grow. 42,619 people have come through COVID-19 alive now, in the.
Our Slice of the COVID-19 Pie Continues to Grow
There are a number of factors than can have impact on why we have so many of the global
cases. Perhaps we're ramping up the testing more than others.
Here is what those numbers looked like at the end of the day yesterday. Maybe the virus
was here a lot earlier than we thought. It's hard to know.
DECLARED DAY'S ACTIVE DAY'S
DATE CASES CHGE CASES CHGE
-
03/20 7.125% 1.297% 10.934% 1.552%
03/21 8.704% 1.579% 13.000% 2.066%
03/22 10.377% 1.673% 15.343% 2.343%
03/23 12.170% 1.793% 17.411% 2.068%
03/24 13.053% 0.883% 18.369% 0.958%
03/25 14.657% 1.604% 20.190% 1.821%
03/26 16.140% 1.483% 21.454% 1.264%
03/27 17.530% 1.390% 22.920% 1.466%.
03/28 18.742% 1.212% 24.126% 1.206%
03/29 19.762% 1.020% 25.289% 1.163%
03/30 20.936% 1.174% 26.777% 1.488%
03/31 22.045% 1.109% 27.885% 1.108%
04/01 23.110% 1.065% 29.120% 1.235%
04/02 24.160% 1.050% 30.482% 1.362%
04/03 24.886% 0.726% 31.057% 0.575%
04/04 25.935% 1.049% 32.400% 1.343%
04/05 26.464% 0.529% 32.866% 0.466%
04/06 27.324% 0.860% 34.153% 1.287%
04/07 27.930% 0.606% 34.854% 0.701%
04/08 28.634% 0.704% 36.125% 1.271%
04/09 29.091% 0.457% 36.790% 0.665%
The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
without Mainland China
Global Cases Increased to Record Levels Today, Outside M/L China
Yes, back to still more numbers...
EOD DAY'S INCR'SD
DATE CASES GROWTH GROWTH - compared to day before
-
03/20 194,148 30,824 5,185
03/21 225,932 31,784 963
03/22 257,820 31,888 104
03/23 297,172 39,352 7,464
03/24 341,530 41,462 2,110
03/25 390,378 48,848 7,386
03/26 451,006 60,628 11,780
03/27 516,124 65,118 4,490
03/28 583,107 66,983 1,865
03/29 641,588 58,481 -8,502
03/30 704,051 62,463 3,982
03/31 777,887 73,836 11,373
04/01 855,389 77,502 3,666
04/02 933,937 78,548 1,046
04/03 1,036,395 102,458 23,910
04/04 1,121,349 84,954 -17,054
04/05 1,193.215 71,866 -13,088
04/06 1,265,487 72,272 386
04/07 1,349,117 83,630 11,358
04/08 1,436,669 87,552 3,922
04/09 1,519,961 83,292 -4,260
I know that's a big number, but in the over scheme of things, that number is pretty small
Cases continue to go up, but the growth has flattened.
Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active, and Serious/Crical Cases
Globally, Excluding M/L China
ACTIVE SERIOUS
DATE FATAL RECOV RESOLV CASES CRITICAL
-
03/20 8,110 16,393 24,503 169,645
03/21 9,740 19,995 29,735 196,197
03/22 11,305 25,485 36,790 221,030
03/23 13,060 28,470 41,530 258,538
03/24 15,347 35,256 50,603 290,927
03/25 17,643 40,467 58,210 332,168
03/26 20,785 48,084 68,869 382,137
03/27 24,466 56,801 81,267 434,857
03/28 27,522 64,777 92,299 490,808
03/29 30,714 76,342 107,056 534,532
03/30 34,515 89,989 124,504 579,547
03/31 39,052 102,121 141,163 636,724
04/01 43,949 118,092 162,041 693,348
04/02 49,838 135,204 185,042 748,895
04/03 55,611 150,014 205,625 839,770
04/04 61,466 170,309 231,775 889,574 41,993
04/05 66,183 185,921 252,104 941,111 45,633
04/06 71,485 208,635 280,120 985,367 47,201
04/07 78,812 224,264 303,076 1,046,041 47,743
04/08 85,214 253,546 338,760 1,097,909 47,990
04/09 92,409 278,059 370,468 1,149,493 49,001
There were 31,708 resolved cases today. It's hard to believe the recovered people numberThat's a lot of people. Next on tap, watch the recoveries over the next week. It will
be impressive.
Flattening...
There is flattening going on in the Global scene outside China and the U. S. Right now.
Lets review the situation again.
Here: (case growth)
-
Global Global (EC)
Excluding Minus the
China the U. S. U. S.
03/29 58,481 38,955 19,826
03/30 62,463 40,868 21,595
03/31 73,836 48,832 25,004
04/01 77,502 50,405 27,097
04/02 78,548 49,710 28,838
04/03 102,458 69,559 32,899
04/04 84,954 51,111 33,843
04/05 71,866 46,465 25,401
04/06 72,272 41,534 30,738
04/07 83,630 52,077 31,553
04/08 87,552 52,321 35,231
04/09 83,292 52,153 31,139
Look at those numbers three days in a row. That center column is the rest of the world
without China and the U. S. impacting them. Only 244 points spread there. Am I safe in
saying that's sort of flat?
Special Section on France, Germany, Italy, and Spain
Case growth.
Lets Look at Some Numbers in Five Day Increments:
DATE FRANCE GERMANY ITALY SPAIN - 02/20 12 16 3 2 02/25 14 18 322 9 03/01 100 117 1,128 76 03/06 -- 653 -- 670 -- 4,636 -- 401 03/11 2,284 1,966 12,462 2,277 03/16 6,650 7,272 27,980 9,942 03/21 14,485 22,364 53,578 25,496 03/26 -- 29,566 -- 43,938 -- 80,589 -- 57,786 03/31 52,819 68,180 105,792 94,417 04/05 93,780 100,123 128,948 131,646 04/09 118,785 118,235 143,626 153,222
Just keeping an eye on these nations. France and Germany are neck and neck there.
Sweden and It's Neighbors, Who Has the Best Tactic Againt COVID-19
Sweeden is doing their own thing with regard to isolating. I'm cheking out if they
are doing the right thing or not. I'm not convinced either way at this point.
Here are some numbers to help us look at this issue.
DATE SWEDEN DENMARK FINLAND NORWAY - 02/21 1 0 1 0 02/26 2 0 1 1 03/02 15 4 6 25 03/07 -- 161 -- 27 -- 19 -- 156 03/12 599 617 59 702 03/17 1,196 1,024 321 1,471 03/22 1,934 1,514 626 2,385 03/27 -- 3,069 -- 2,700 -- 1,041 -- 3,771 04/01 4,947 3,290 1,446 4,877 04/06 7,206 4,875 2,176 5,865 04/09 9,141 5,830 2,605 6,219 > 3 days not five - Deaths 793 237 42 108 - Populace 10.33m 5.82m 5.53m 5.37m
I'll keep an eye on these nations and add to the above numbers daily.
The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
including Mainland China*
Mainland China numbers make up 00.19% of today's cases globally
Nations With Lots of Cases
At the end of the day on 04/07/2020, there were: Oops, at 19:33 PDST last night...
1 nation(s) with 400,000 plus (take a bow...) 4 nation(s) with 100,000 to 199,999 3 nation(s) with 50,000 to 99,999 5 natiom(s) with 20,000 to 49,999 5 nation(s) with 10,000 to 19,999 13 nation(s) with 5,000 to 9,999 33 nation(s) with 1,000 to 4,999There are currently 64 nations with a 1,000 count or above...
A Look at Declared, Resolved, and Active Cases, Includes M/L China
End of day figures follow:
DECLAR DAY'S RESOLVED DAY'S PCT DEC ACTIVE
DATE CASES GROWTH CASES GROWTH CS RESOL CASES
-
03/20 - 275,434 - 30,911 - 99,655 - 3,590 - 36.181% - 175,779
03/21 307,280 31,846 105,425 5,770 34.309% 201,855
03/22 339,259 31,979 113,540 8,115 33.467% 225,719
03/23 - 381,621 - 42,362 - 118,369 - 4,829 - 31.017% - 263,252
03/24 423,121 41,500 127,538 9,169 30.142% 295,583
03/25 472,109 48,998 136,178 8,640 28.845% 335,931
03/26 - 532,788 - 60.679 - 146,749 - 10,571 - 27.544% - 386,039
03/27 598,070 65,282 159,533 12,784 26.675% 438,537
03/28 665,164 67,094 171,077 11,544 25.720% 494,087
03/29 - 723,740 - 58,576 - 186,060 - 14,983 - 25.708% - 537,680
03/30 786,291 62,551 203,926 17,848 25.933% 582,383
03/31 860,181 73,890 220,713 16,085 25.659% 639,468
04/01 - 937,783 - 77,602 - 241,591 - 20,878 - 25.762% - 696,192
04/02 1,016,401 78,618 264,935 23,344 26.066% 751,466
04/03 1,118,921 102,520 285,706 20,771 25.534% 833,215
04/04 - 1,203,923 - 85,002 - 312,068 - 26,362 - 25.931% - 891,855
04/05 1,275,856 71,933 332,513 20,445 26.062% 943,343
04/06 1,348,184 72,328 359,618 27,105 26.674% 988,566
04/07 - 1,431,900 - 83,716 - 383,688 - 24,070 - 26.796% - 1,048,212
04/08 1,519,478 87,848 419,465 35,777 27.606% 1,100,283
04/09 1,602,885 83,407 451,259 31,794 28.153% 1,151,626
Although there were 83,407 new cases declared today, the actual growth in new casesThe percentage of resolved cases is climbing pretty good now. As mentioned earlier,
those numbers are going to get very large in upcoming days. Expect 50, 60, perhaps
70 thousand per day shortly. We're talking tomorrow or perhaps another day or two.
Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active, and Serious/Crical Cases
Globally, Including M/L China
ACTIVE SERIOUS
DATE FATAL RECOV RESOLV CASES CRITICAL
-
03/20 11,399 88,256 99,655 175,779
03/21 13,049 92,376 105,425 201,855
03/22 14,706 98,834 113,540 225,719
03/23 16,563 101,806 118,369 263,252
03/24 18,919 108,619 127,358 295,583
03/25 21,308 114,870 136,178 335,931
03/26 24,077 122,672 146,749 386,039
03/27 27,761 131,772 159,533 438,537
03/28 30,852 140,225 171,077 494,087
03/29 34,018 152,042 186,060 537,680
03/30 37,820 166,088 203,908 582,383
03/31 42,354 178,359 220,713 639,468
04/01 47,261 194,330 241,591 696,192
04/02 53,160 211,775 264,935 751,466
04/03 58,937 226,769 285,706 833,215
04/04 64,795 247,273 312,068 891,855 42,288 ch 295
04/05 69,514 262,999 332,513 943,343 45,898 ch 265
04/06 74,816 284,802 359,618 988,566 47,412 ch 211
04/07 82,145 301,543 383,688 1,048,212 47,932 ch 189
04/08 88,549 330,916 419,464 1,100,283 48,166 ch 176
04/09 95,475 355,514 451,259 1,151,626 49,145 ch 144
Not much to say about these numbers, I haven't said elsewhere. I'll spare you.
Population Saturation
Here are figures revealing how many people in each population base represent one case.
I'm also showing what percent of each population base is infected at this time.
1 CASE IN
THIS NUMBER
OF PEOPLE
ENTITY 04/09 04/08 04/07 04/09 04/08
-
Globally : 6,747 7,062 7,413 -315 -351
Outside China : 6,760 7,077 7,428 -317 -351
The U. S. A. : 780 831 904 -51 -73
-
INFECTION LEVEL
OF ENTIRE
POPULACE
ENTITY 04/09 04/08 04/07 04/09 04/08
-
Globally : 00.0141% 00.0134% 00.0127% 00.0007% 00.0007%
Outside China : 00.0180% 00.0172% 00.0164% 00.0008% 00.0008%
The U. S. A. : 00.1282% 00.1203% 00.1106% 00.0079% 00.0938%
These saturation rates are troubling. The percentge of our populace infected is too,
States of the Union, the District of Columbia, and Territories...
I still have this available in the Excel format, linked below. I thought folks might
like to have access to it here. I list the states alphabetically. On the right side
of that listing is the ranking number in the list by descending cases. Look up your
state alphabetiall, get that number, and look at the list on the right to find look
at how the other states stand next to yours.
Here is the Standing of 200 Counties in the U. S.
I still have this available in the Excel format, linked below. I thought folks might
like to have access to it here. I list the Counties alphabetically. On the right
side of that listing is the ranking number in the list by descending cases. You can
look to see if your county is listed. Hopefully not... If you find it, you can look
at the numberical list to compare to other counties.
Here's what it's all about. From January 20th to the present.
This concludes our look back at yesterday's data. Take care...
Data for this Report Sourced From:
LINK Johns Hopkins University
The Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE)
LINK WorldoMeters
LINK You are Invited to Review My COVID-19 Spreadsheet (XLSX)
There is not an XLS version available for distribution at this time.
Other Features:
LINK US States DC51, Territories5+, and Counties200
Excel Spreadsheet with Alphabetical and Numerically descending Cases
Links to other resources:
I cannot vouch for these sites. Please use your own discression.
LINK Adventist Health Coronavirus Resource Hub - Scroll down for useful info
LINK CDC Secondary Data and Statistics - Portal Entry / Look around
LINK Coronavirus (COVID-19) Map
LINK COVID-19 First U.S. Case, Treatment, features Remdesivir
New England Journal of Medicine article
LINK Diamond Princess Review at 634 Case Point of Eventual 712
LINK earlyAlert
LINK Hydroxychloroquine Article: International Poll
Daily Mail Reports, Most Effective Treatment According to 6,000 Physicians
LINK IHME - Institute for Health Matrix and Evaluation
LINK National Institutes of Health - Cornavirus (COVID-19)
LINK New York City - interesting breakdown, burough, age, sex
LINK World Health Organization
Here’s something new. As best as i can tell there’s only one reference on the entire web about Erythropoietin as a treatment for COVID-19, and it was posted on April 8.
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/jmv.25839
makes sense....hope it is studied more down the road.
Please add me to the Ping List.
The mark of a great analyst is that they have an intuitive sixth sense when the data goes wonky. They pause and look instead of just plug and play. That and nothing is more frustrating than having your macro fouled by having a formatting change in an outside data set.
Your product isn't decent - it's FANTASTIC.
All these numbers are provisional, they are compiled in the field by people under ferocious time pressure, personal fear, and political interference.
You are familiar with the term "the fog of war". That's what you are dealing with trying to quantify an in-motion disaster like this.
Keep up the good work. We really appreciate it.
Wonder what Finland is doing to keep their numbers so low?
Please add me to the ping list.
Dr. Seheult on the MedCram youtube channel speculates that it may have something to do with sauna use boosting the Finns innate immune system. More common in Finland than the other countries of the region.
Your work is FANTASTIC!!!!!!
The excerpt below is particularly interesting and I would believe that the higher US numbers may be related to our better bookkeeping on the data.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
INFECTION LEVEL
OF ENTIRE
POPULACE
ENTITY 04/09 04/08 04/07 04/09 04/08
-
Globally : 00.0141% 00.0134% 00.0127% 00.0007% 00.0007%
Outside China : 00.0180% 00.0172% 00.0164% 00.0008% 00.0008%
The U. S. A. : 00.1282% 00.1203% 00.1106% 00.0079% 00.0938%
These saturation rates are troubling. The percentge of our populace infected is too,
when you compare to the global percentage. I guess it’s possible there is a massive
body of people who are not being tested, and that skews us a lot higher by comparison.
Your work is phenomenal. Thank you for posting this every morning. I was curious to know the infection rate for each state, and the USA minus NY. What number are you using for the US population, and are you calculating total cases to date, or active cases? Knowing this will help me with the calculations. Thank you!
The global death rate as compared to global resolved cases(deaths + recovered) including China is still 21 percent.I trust that that number drops as more “recovered” numbers comes in. If you take out China’s numbers the death rate as compared to resolved cases climbs towards 30 percent.
These places do the best they can. Humans being humans, there are times when inconsistancies will pop up. They will be corrected. That's life.
I read an article that NYC's numbers jumped by 800 in one day due to a reporting lag. That's likely not some Deep State plot and it simply screws up day over day comparisons.
I am especially touched by the humanity of this analysis -
Still, every one is an individual we'd rather not see taken by this virus.
Thank you.
On Wednesday April 1 I began tracking the number of ‘serious, critical’ cases being reported in the USA.
These are the people who may likely die in the next few days.
If the ‘serious, critical’ number goes up, we will likely see more deaths. On the other hand if the various drugs being tested are effective in treating the virus, the ‘serious, critical’ number should go down.
Here are the numbers:
Apr 1 Wed 5005
Apr 2 Thu 5421
Apr 3 Fri 5787
Apr 4 Sat 8206
Apr 5 Sun 8702
Apr 6 Mon 8879
Apr 7 Tue 9169
Apr 8 Wed 9279
Apr 9 Thu 10,011
Please add me to the Ping List.
Ping.
By the way, note the chart is a 7-day moving average of new cases for the countries displayed.
A few other items that seem quite obvious to me in this graph. 1) The course of the virus has nothing to do with temperature. It has everything to do with the time needed to run its course. As an example, right now NYC has a temp of 45° -- with a significant slowdown in growth, Montreal, CA has a temp of 36° -- with CA showing a slowdown in growth. These are just two examples. I realize that the temp is only one day, but the point is that generally, the weather in the wide-area is not currently under a heat wave warning and their curve is flattening. 2) It appears from the graph that most all of these countries begin to flatten in 25 to 30 days (some sooner) -- that includes the U.S.
Finally, I am showing the death rate relative to total cases in the U.S. to be slightly above 3%. While, that obviously is not good. There are certainly many who question those numbers. To me even if the numbers are correct that number is not the most important number. The most important number is the number of cases. That seems to be what is closing down our economy. How many lives will we lose from a recession and/or depression? Probably many more than 16,000. As noted in other comments here on FR, the overall death rate (for all causes) for March is down. Where will that number be in August if our economy remains locked down while we remain in our caves?
This chart sure seems to imply, IMO, that we have turned the corner -- as noted in the Italy and Spain headline below. Let's see how long it takes for this news to be heard?
A picture is worth many words.
click on image to enlarge
Data from Worldometer & John Hopkins
Thanks for the daily updates. You definitely cast your bread upon the waters, and a veritable feast of data it is. I have a question about a sentence that I think might be a typo:
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