Posted on 04/09/2020 7:02:28 AM PDT by TexasGurl24
BERLIN — The preliminary findings of an antibody study by German virologists published on Thursday indicates a covid-19 fatality rate of 0.37 percent, information expected to inform government decision-making about lifting restrictions.
The study by researchers at the University of Bonn involves testing 1,000 individuals in the hard-hit district of Heinsberg in northwestern Germany in an attempt to ascertain the number of people who have been infected without realizing it.
The preliminary findings were based on results from 509 individuals, the researchers said in a news conference on Thursday.
Some 14 percent of the sample had antibodies for the disease, and an additional 2 percent had current infections. A death rate of 0.37 percent is well below the 3.4 percent case fatality rate cited by the World Health Organization last month and at the lower end of the 0.3 to 1 percent range that has been estimated by scientists.
A series of antibody studies are being carried out in Germany, involving about 100,000 people. The studies are considered key to the government’s risk assessment as it decides whether to lift restrictions on daily life. Chancellor Angela Merkel has said that unless a vaccine is developed, she expects 60 to 70 percent of the population to be infected before what is known as “herd immunity” is reached.
. . .
The German scientists said they assumed immunity could last from six to 18 months but that more studies were needed.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
Caveat, this is the Compost, so you need to verify this with a real news organization, or better yet, take a look at the study itself.
This is great information. We need widespread antibody tests here of hundreds of thousands, or even millions of people, quickly. It will help end the madness and politically-inspired fear.
So roughly 4x deadlier than the flu.
What a lot of us here were speculating weeks ago.
Leave it to the Germans to be more concerned with facts than emotion...
Your idea is sound and, I think, logistically possible.
The whacko idea circulating out there that all 350 million of us have to be tested before America re-opens is not.
I’mm hoping 50% in the US have the anti-bodies and that will put this crap to bed. At least until next time. Then to really mitigate we repatriate chemical and medical and require all chinese to get a visa and health/virus check to even get on a plane for the U.S.
“The whacko idea circulating out there that all 350 million”
That “idea” has nothing to do with public safety. It is about keeping the economy crushed. The rats know if they keep the country closed a few months there is no chance the economy recovers before November.
I do notice that Germany has a high infection rate and a very low death rate.
How much of that .37% is of the 80+ cohort? 15% of those folks die every year regardless of the reason.
Will probably settle in the 0.1% range in a few years as those with some resistance have a better outcome and the vaccine comes on line.
That “idea” has nothing to do with public safety. It is about keeping the economy crushed. The rats know if they keep the country closed a few months there is no chance the economy recovers before November.
Yep. The Chicom Flu almost exclusively targets those with preexisting conditions and the elderly. It was always insane to spend $10 trillion and nuke the economy based on that. The economy will be weakened for years and vulnerable to aftershocks due to this assault. And what happens when the real super bug hits us in the future?
I think the main problem is, there are no high-speed antibody tests available.
Fed.gov spent 2+ months trying to come up with high-speed, large-scale testing for the virus itself. I’m not a biochemist, but hopefully they could, with the help of private industry (who probably are already working on it), come up with high-speed and mass tests for antibodies.
The only way to reduce the panic and fear is to understand clearly how much the disease has spread already, and what the true mortality rate is.
Is this the death rate for people that have the virus or the total population. I figure the death rate for the total population is four ten thousands of one percent. They’ve got everybody faked with numbers.
Germany has tested 15,730 people per million.
USA has tested 6,766 people per million.
Germany on a per capita basis has tested more twice the number in the USA.
As such, Germany has more than twice the amount of information to determine the spread of corona virus.
That’s the thing ... Germany is handling this the right way, statistically-speaking.
Every death that might be corona-related gets an autopsy, and ONLY the ones where corona was the main cause are included in the count (unlike the CDC’s policy). That’s why Germany has less than 1000 corona deaths.
There’s no excuse for sloppy statistics when so much depends on the accuracy of those numbers. No one should trust the WHO, Prof. Chris Murray (UW) or Imperial College ever again.
You cannot look at the numbers in a “hard-hit” area and extrapolate those numbers population wide.
I really wonder about the methodology here. Who are the people who had antibodies? Are they some of the recovered people? People with known exposures? Etc.
A couple more antibody studies in the works:
Telluride Coronavirus Testing Uncovers Some Positive Results, But Also More Uncertainty
https://www.cpr.org/2020/04/02/telluride-coronavirus-testing-uncovers-some-positive-results-but-also-
more-uncertainty/
Stanford researchers test 3,200 people for COVID-19 antibodies
“””I think the main problem is, there are no high-speed antibody tests available.”””
If you can believe WAPO, “A series of antibody studies are being carried out in Germany, involving about 100,000 people”
The German antibody tests, may or may not be, the high speed variety that are expected to begin in May in the USA.
THIS IS EXACTLY THE INFORMATION WE NEED - THANK YOU GERMANY!!!!!!!!!!
Now we need to KNOW AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE the best estimate on the total number of CV INFECTIONS IN THE USA.
This flu season: 39 million INFECTIONS, 400K hospitalizations, and 24K deaths from the flu. Fatalities as a % of those infected from the flu = 0.06%.
Current USA CV stats: 435K positive tests, 14.8K deaths. BUT WHAT ARE THE NUMBER OF CV INFECTIONS IN THE US? It is in the MILLIONS but is it 5 million? 50 million? We don’t know yet but need to find out ASAP.
BOTTOM LINE IS, THE FATALITIES AS A % OF THOSE INFECTED WITH CV WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN THE FATALITIES AS A % OF THOSE TESTING POSITIVE WITH CV. We know this because there are a large number of asymptomatic people with CV who have shown no symptoms or were sick for a day or two and recovered.
If the CV fatalities as a % of those infected is as low as we suspect (0.1 to 0.2%) then the CV SPREADS MORE RAPIDLY than was estimated and is LESS LETHAL than we thought (as H1N1 was in 2009-2010). America can then quit this media-driven panic and get back to work. The health of the US economy is at stake. We need ANTIBODY tests done on sample populations as quickly as possible to get this data.
90% of those who have died from CV are over the age of 75 and have pre-existing conditions.
The combination of Hydroxychloroquine, Azithromycin, and Zinc has been working with thousands of patients worldwide.
God bless you and your families.
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