The 3 Big Questions Nobody Is Answering

Townhall.com ^ | April 8, 2020 | Ben Shapiro

[Kaslin]

This week, according to members of the federal government, and state and local governments, Americans have begun to flatten the curve in the novel coronavirus outbreak. The excitement was muted -- after all, trends can easily reverse -- but real. Americans have abided by recommendations and orders. They've left their jobs to stay at home; they've practiced social distancing; in many places, they've donned masks. The result: a reduction in expected hospitalization and death. According to the University of Washington Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation model most oft cited by members of the Trump administration, the expected need for hospital beds at peak outbreak was revised down by over 120,000, the number of ventilators by nearly 13,000 and the number of overall deaths by August by nearly 12,000.

Here's the problem: We still don't know the answers to the key questions that will allow the economy to reopen.

First, what is the true coronavirus fatality rate? This question is important because it determines whether certain areas ought to be open or closed, whether we ought to pursue -- Sweden style -- a more liberalized society that presumes wide spread, or whether we ought to lock down further.

We've seen case fatality rates -- the number of deaths divided by the number of identified COVID-19 cases -- but both the numerator and the denominator are likely wrong. We don't know how many people have actually died of coronavirus. Some sources suggest the number has been overestimated, given that classification for cause of death, particularly among elderly patients, can be variable. Some sources suggest the number is dramatically underestimated, since many people are dying at home

Even more importantly, we have no clue how many Americans actually have coronavirus. Some scientists suggest that the number of identified cases could be an order of magnitude lower than the number of people who have had coronavirus and not been tested. That would mean that the fatality rate is actually far lower than suggested, even if the transmission rate is high.

Secondly, what are we expecting in terms of a second wave? The institute's model simply cuts off in early August. It does not predict how many people will die in a second wave. This is the most important problem because experts maintain that the virus is seasonal, which means we are likely to see more serious spreading in the fall. And that means we will be faced with either renewed lockdowns for large swaths of the population, with wide-scale testing and contact tracing, or with the realization that we will have to isolate those who are most vulnerable and let everyone else work.

Which raises the third question: What exactly can we do? Are we capable of rolling out tens of millions of tests over the next few months -- and compelling people to take tests regularly, since the virus is transmittable while carriers are asymptomatic? Can we create a contact tracing system for 330 million Americans -- and are we willing to submit ourselves to one?

One thing is certain: Things cannot continue as they have been. Americans are not going to stay home for months on end, and they certainly will not do so on the basis of ever-evolving models, especially as statistics roll in that look like the lower-end model estimates in terms of death and the upper-end estimates in terms of economic damage. We need transparency and honesty from our scientific experts -- we need to know what they know, what they don't and when they hope to know what they don't. We're grown-ups, and we're willing to follow their advice. But they need to start answering serious questions, or they will fall prey to the same lack of institutional faith to which all other American institutions seem deeply prone.

[Jim Noble]

Here’s what a model can’t tell you: How does it spread?

Either it’s like a spilled can of paint (think of NYC as the paint can), which spreads uniformly but gets thinner as it spreads out, OR it’s like buckshot with NYC, again, as the shotgun, with a widening pattern with distance but each lead shot capable of starting a fire where it hits.

Most models appear to be using “spilled paint”, which will overpredict because it misses the no-risk gaps. But the buckshot model DOES REQUIRE containing all the little fires so that you don’t turn a containable fire into a conflagration.

[Biggirl]

Count in those who have died at home.

[cgbg]

Joe Biden has a secret plan to save the country—it is so secret even he hasn’t seen it yet! ;-)

[redangus]

He missed one and I think it is the one driving the shutdown and it’s eventual end. How many death are the American electorate willing to accept to return to normal? I’m surprised no one has asked that question yet at the pressers. It’s always going to be a trade off. The virus isn’t going away and people are going to continue to die regardless of how we try to manage the outbreak. So, how many deaths are acceptable? I think they have a number in their collective heads and when the models get to that predictive point the country is reopened.

[rightwingcrazy]

There are more than 3 big questions.

US economic output plunges by 29% as coronavirus forces widespread shutdowns Between 1929 and 1933, during the Great Depression, annual output fell 26 percent

[bramps]

Another big question is when will someone in the administration realize that their messaging is very bad.

We need more definitive answers to definitive questions. Trump should an objective panel from the general public rather than rabid journalists and get questions born out of real curiosity and then make sure every question is answered in a satisfactory way.

One quick question I have is that I hear that now there are quick tests that can be performed. So my question would be why hasn’t mass manufacturing of millions and millions of these testing machines become the number 1, 2, and 3 priorities of the administration so that anyone entering any facility can be tested in minutes before entering and the infected quarantined?

[MeneMeneTekelUpharsin]

The media doesn’t care about the truth, it doesn’t fit the media’s agenda.

[yldstrk]

The press corpse LOVES bad news and will create it.

[MeneMeneTekelUpharsin]

I see what you did there. lolol

[BwanaNdege]

Money quote: “or with the realization that we will have to isolate those who are most vulnerable and let everyone else work. “

[lapsus calami]

 

 

I feel you. When I watch those, I now think "here we go again...". It's the daily gang fight, with the POTUS and staff trying to communicate vital information with people who aren't interested in it, who are just trying to shake loose something they can use for an attack. I noticed almost none of the info POTUS tries to share is passed on in the MSM but bitching and criticism is to be found aplenty.

 

 

[iontheball]

There is a lot of subterfuge going on. For starters why the big secret about COVID-19 that continues to go on that the virus is a blood disease and not pneumonia? Just maybe if the CDC and other wiz bang experts would have been straight with the doctors from the beginning they would not have been killing their patients thee many weeks with ventilators. Ventilators do little for the patient when the patients hemoglobin is unable to transport oxygen.

There is a way to get back to business immediately, but no one will talk about it. Why? Because they must want the charade to go on to November. The answer is HCQ administered to the public as a treatment for those that are sick and as a maintenance dose for the healthy who do not want to get sick. Then everybody goes back to work after being placed on the regime. That covers it, plan and simple.

[bramps]

In my post #7 I suggested that Trump should impanel an objective group from the general public to ask questions and they MUST receive answers they understand and are satisfied with before moving to the next question.

If I was in charge you would get the first question in regards to your plan with HCQ.

[WildHighlander57]

rightwingcrazy wrote:

“There are more than 3 big questions.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/us-economic-output-plunges-coronavirus-widespread-shutdowns
“

Those numbers are worse than the Great Depression!

[Vermont Lt]

Look around at Walmart.

Tell me that our country appears anything like Sweden.

These writers don’t really understand how this disease works.

[moovova]

[IrishBrigade]

‘We’re grown-ups...’

would have stopped reading right there, if it hadn’t been the next to last sentence...

[Chauncey Gardiner]

Low dose HCQ daily as a prophylactic and put everyone back to work now. Followed by eventual testing.
When the vaccine to comes, we change modes.

[Wonder Warthog]

"So my question would be why hasn’t mass manufacturing of millions and millions of these testing machines become the number 1, 2, and 3 priorities of the administration so that anyone entering any facility can be tested in minutes before entering and the infected quarantined?"

1) they are vastly facilitating the increase in availability of POSSIBLE tests, and 2) no technology currently exists that can do what you are suggesting (measurement instrumentation development was my 50-year career before I retired...part of it spent developing medical and biowarfare instruments).