Posted on 04/05/2020 4:39:43 PM PDT by Kevin in California
A new study from the renowned Imperial College in the U.K. has dramatically revised upward the possible number of Europeans infected with the COVID-19 Coronavirus. It estimates that on March 30, 2020, 15% of Spaniards and 9.8% of Italians were infected. If correct, the actual death rate may be as low as 0.15% – or 25 times smaller than the initial reports. In the U.S., too, the real number of stealth-infected people is almost certainly much higher because the immune system of those who are asymptomatically infected kills the virus in days – and such people will test negative.
The world renowned Omar Am..
not ringing a bell
Great logic but Chicken Freepers will not be swayed. They have pivoted from look at the case death rate to omg look at the rate of spread.
That’s a myth. Cases are quickly being traced to contacts, and most of the contacts by far have tested negative. Negatives have vastly outnumbered positives.
Absolutely.. there is zero doubt it is more widespread and as such the mortality rate is grossly too high.
re: “omg look at the rate of spread.”
Test more - FIND more ...
A concept not easily understood.
COVID-19: New Orleans’ coronavirus death rate is twice New York’s, and obesity is a factor
https://nationalpost.com/news/world/covid-19-new-orleans-coronavirus-death-rate-is-twice-new-yorks-and-obesity-is-a-factor
same thing i’ve been saying on here a long time — far more infections than people think, far lower death rate
Almost certainly true. A lot of us are convinced we caught this in late 2019.
I know — its like trying to recover a fumble on a muddy field in a down pour.
We don’t know until there are randomly sampled antibody tests.
20% could be immune... Or it could be less than 1%. Opinions are like assholes.....
Hopefully we will have real data soon!
“COVID-19: New Orleans’ coronavirus death rate is twice New York’s, and obesity is a factor”
That should scare the “flubros”... from New Orleans I mean
There is no comfort to be had in a lower death rate because it means the virus is much more infectious than we thought and therefore will infect many more people in a very short time. It also means that even more of the population needs to be infected before you get herd immunity. I would actually be more comforted with a higher mortality rate and a much lower infection rate because it would mean social distancing might actually work. If these folks are right then virtually everone has to get this before it will stop and even with a low mortality rate that means a huge number of dead.
Test more find more then the fatality rate should go down but instead it is steadily rising. It has gone from 1.2% in the USA to currently 2.9%. In Germany where they do even more testing than we do and started earlier the fatality rate has steadily increased from 0.2% to 1.6% one of the lowest rates in Western Europe where the average across 12 countries is now 7.8% and growing.
I don’t disagree with you. I will also point out that there does not seem to be any correlation between how much testing you do and the death rate. The two countries that have done the most testing in western Europe are Germany and Italy. They are both outliers among all European countries for death rate but opposite ends of the spectrum Italy 12.3 and Germany 1.6. Overall 7.8% among a dozen countries.
re: “It has gone from 1.2% in the USA to currently 2.9%.”
Parts of the US had a mild winter. Fewer weak and infirm died as a result. We had cold weather only in December 2019 here in North Central Tejas for instance (I keep my own log of temperatures locally.)
This virus is making up for it, taking out the weak and infirm.
It would be interesting to know for past years what deaths were for the weak and infirm demographic. Are we “making up for it” now, with Covid-19?
To simply cite numbers like you did doesn’t mean much. We need to know who is being affected. Some number of weak and infirm (usually this number includes lots of oldsters too) die all the time, but more so during times when its cold, or during a (bad?) Flu season, or due to Covid-19 like now.
I think it makes the stats look all the much worse, given what I just explained above. W/o knowing demographics a single ‘cited’ stat (statistic) doesn’t mean much. Not to me anyway.
Are you familiar with the Diamond Princess and the mortality aboard that ship? Confined crew and passengers, yet, not everyone died ...
Including NY is like including the Washington state nursing home with its 30 deaths linked to it. At 212 deaths per million this outlier reports twice as many as its 2 nearest competitors, and over 3.5 times as much as the next and the disparity keeps growing (234 times more than CA).
There are variables to this. The first round of testing here was strict. Inpatients with particular risks. Risks have changed... testing people with a low 02 sat will skew the data. So will testing healthy people with no risks. Lies, damned lies, statistics.
But when you look at the overall numbers, you find the Kung Flu has managed to cure pneumonia all by itself. The death rate for pneumonia has cratered and is almost non-existent. Hallelujah! We have discovered a miracle cure for pneumonia!
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