Regular people will learn the hard way.
Regular people will learn the hard way.
Wow.
A hockeystick graph.
Mann has moved on from gore bull warming.
That graph is fraudulent.
Just compare the mortality rates for the U.S. per the CDC in the last few years and that graph does not match up to reality.
During the 2018-19 flu season, about 35 million people in the US contracted the flu and about 34,000 died, according to the CDC.
Cite the origin of the chart, please.
The graph is silly. There were at least 23,000 deaths due to the seasonal flu. There is no way this chart gets close to that.
In 2017-2018, there were 61,000 deaths from the flu. Does that chart look anywhere near accurate?
Not sure where you got this graph but for the 2020 season as of last week in the U.S. reported by the CDC, there have been 23K to 63K deaths from flu out of 39 - 55 million flu illnesses. The CV deaths are at around 8500 as of the end of March. That does not map out as even close to what that image shows. Influenza over the same period is 10x as many deaths with cases in the millions. The volume of panic driving crap news is incredible.
You do realize 1500 avg over a number of weeks is more than that spike right? Graphs are manipulated to show what the interests of the designer are.
Ever since Michael Mann, I’m suspicious of “hockey stick” graphs.
Can you explain what we are looking at, who’s the source of the data, what population? Thanks.
US trend?
I thought projection was a liberal thing. But old farts and those with pre existing conditions project those contrived fears on to the the 95% of the population the is at little or no risk what s ever. Shame, shame on all of you fear mongers. If that is what you are doing then you deserve what happens to you . I sneeze in your general direction losers. Shame!!!!
Your well done plot is of CV deaths/week and not cumulative, correct?
I’ve thought that there should be a daily plot and table of CV vs. current year flu deaths to be able to compare and see what is going on.
Weekly is more than adequate. They are dramatically different events.
Looks like Flu deaths for this season tend to be a few weeks behind real time in being reported. I guess we will have to see if these implemented actions to slow CV will also cause a sudden drop in Flu deaths this season.
Hi, Chris37. I posted over on daily thread 37 a request to get actual weekly data and a more accurate graph. That was after I went and picked the weekly values for 2017-18 off the graph as closely as I could and added them up. PITA. It appears that flu curve needs to be multiplied by about 3x.
HOWEVER, the COVID-19 curve looks approximately correct, and it STILL has rocketed past the worst flu curve in years (2017-18). People who think this (CV curve) is a “spike” that is going to fall back down just as quickly in a week or two have no idea what they are talking about. Disease progressions simply do not work that way, especially disease progressions being fought with moderate mitigation. Even harsh mitigation (see Wuhan, China, a few weeks ago) isn’t THAT effective, (and no one believes the Chinese numbers anymore, anyway.
Johns Hopkins curves show a reduction in the rate of increase of cases since roughly March 17. That is, the acceleration seems to have reduced somewhat. It’s hard to say if that is a testing artifact, as we are still very far from being able to test most mild cases (and we are likely catching only a few asymptotic cases — powerful people who get the test due to their position rather than symptoms.) However, mitigation efforts should be having SOME effect, even if places like NY were late to the game. The problem is, the “velocity” of spread is not significantly slowing, it is actually still increasing, and cases are piling up in the hospitals because resolution of severe and critical cases (of those who survive) tends to take a long time.
I like to think of it as a flooding creek feeding into a small lake with a culvert for a “spillway”. The creek is (hopefully) rising more slowly @ present than it was, but, water is still entering the lake faster than it can drain, and would be even if the present creek level was steady.
Now, I’m not an epidemiologist, but my work requires a lot of familiarity with how mathematical functions (exponential functions, derivatives, limiters, modifiers, lag factors, feedback, feedforward, and so on) actually behave in the real world. The CV curve will take time to slow, round over, and finally fall. The area under the curve essentially represents the number of fatalities, and time will make that area unfortunately very significant. Unless COVID-19 has an Achilles heel we don’t know about, or one of the treatments being bandied about does a very good job, it is a little hard to see how we get out of this with under 100k fatalities. Hotspots peaking at different times will help a little (fewer instances of hospitals becoming problematic.) And I’ve not lost hope that all the shutdowns and social distancing will be more effective than expected. God knows, the cost of that is brutal. (My brother’s job has been terminated, and my business’ income has gone negative, with no quick fixes to that in sight. I don’t even get unemployment, and it is unclear if any Trump dollars are forthcoming.)