Posted on 04/04/2020 6:58:35 PM PDT by david1292
Dr. Deborah Birx said Saturday that Americans should especially focus on social distancing guidelines in the next two weeks to prevent the spread of the coronavirus.
“This is the moment to not be going to the grocery store, not going to the pharmacy, but doing everything you can to keep your family and your friends safe,” she said.
Birx noted that Pennsylvania, Colorado, and the Washington, DC, metro area were starting to have an increasing number of cases.
“We’re hoping and believing that if people mitigate strongly, the work that they did over the last two weeks will blunt that curve,” she said.
She pointed to really bad hotspots in New Jersey and New York, where cases of the virus and deaths were still going up.
“The next two weeks are extraordinarily important,” she said.
Dr. Anthony Fauci also said three or four hotspots were continuing to rise, but that certain areas could flatten the curve by social distancing.
“Just make sure everybody does the at least minimal amount of that physical separation, because the virus has no place to go if you’re physically separating,” Fauci said.
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
Sounds legit!
I need to stop obsessing about current events and bust out my sewing machine.
I just hate to blink and miss anything though. :)
I’m not big on beer these days either.
OTOH I guess I’ll have to do without orange juice for a few weeks. Heh
I used to sew clothes/costumes, for my kids, when they were younger.
Most of my previous sewing, though, was in college....to have the latest styles, on my non-existant budget...lol.
I’ve just been kinda obsessed with making these masks, though.
I guess because it’s mindless sewing. I take a break from news and other stuff and go in and sew one or two.
I’ll start sending them out to family and friends, first part of this week.
It’s really funny because I used to call people old farts when I was young too. Then one day it smacks you on the side of the head that you have become an old fart.
Funny as hell. Young punk is a relative term.
Thanks, it’s interesting.
Keto diet is ok with heavy cream?
How about strawberries?
Me too, lots of scripts.
I try to get 90 day refills, works for some.
I have the option of having them mailed to me, but that’s sketchy.
Wal-Mart neighborhood mkt. and they limit the amt of ppl in store at one time.
Hi, Chris37. I posted over on daily thread 37 a request to get actual weekly data and a more accurate graph. That was after I went and picked the weekly values for 2017-18 off the graph as closely as I could and added them up. PITA. It appears that flu curve needs to be multiplied by about 3x.
HOWEVER, the COVID-19 curve looks approximately correct, and it STILL has rocketed past the worst flu curve in years (2017-18). People who think this (CV curve) is a “spike” that is going to fall back down just as quickly in a week or two have no idea what they are talking about. Disease progressions simply do not work that way, especially disease progressions being fought with moderate mitigation. Even harsh mitigation (see Wuhan, China, a few weeks ago) isn’t THAT effective, (and no one believes the Chinese numbers anymore, anyway.
Johns Hopkins curves show a reduction in the rate of increase of cases since roughly March 17. That is, the acceleration seems to have reduced somewhat. It’s hard to say if that is a testing artifact, as we are still very far from being able to test most mild cases (and we are likely catching only a few asymptotic cases — powerful people who get the test due to their position rather than symptoms.) However, mitigation efforts should be having SOME effect, even if places like NY were late to the game. The problem is, the “velocity” of spread is not significantly slowing, it is actually still increasing, and cases are piling up in the hospitals because resolution of severe and critical cases (of those who survive) tends to take a long time.
I like to think of it as a flooding creek feeding into a small lake with a culvert for a “spillway”. The creek is (hopefully) rising more slowly @ present than it was, but, water is still entering the lake faster than it can drain, and would be even if the present creek level was steady.
Now, I’m not an epidemiologist, but my work requires a lot of familiarity with how mathematical functions (exponential functions, derivatives, limiters, modifiers, lag factors, feedback, feedforward, and so on) actually behave in the real world. The CV curve will take time to slow, round over, and finally fall. The area under the curve essentially represents the number of fatalities, and time will make that area unfortunately very significant. Unless COVID-19 has an Achilles heel we don’t know about, or one of the treatments being bandied about does a very good job, it is a little hard to see how we get out of this with under 100k fatalities. Hotspots peaking at different times will help a little (fewer instances of hospitals becoming problematic.) And I’ve not lost hope that all the shutdowns and social distancing will be more effective than expected. God knows, the cost of that is brutal. (My brother’s job has been terminated, and my business’ income has gone negative, with no quick fixes to that in sight. I don’t even get unemployment, and it is unclear if any Trump dollars are forthcoming.)
A minor point: What year was 80k? I looked on CDC’s website and could only find data going back to 2010-2011. 2017-18 has been revised down to 61k - the worst in the group. (I believe Redfield said 80k (widely quoted), but that was over a year ago.)
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html
Absolutely. I would eat that every night.
My daughter in law was on that Keto diet a while back, and may still be on it.
She and my son, her husband, both have restrictions on what they can eat because of medical conditions involving certain foods.
I love strawberries and cream...
Canned whipped cream is probably bad for us though? Too much sugar and additives I imagine.
It’s ok if it’s sugar free. Check the net carbs; canned whipped cream is usually light cream instead of heavy, with more carbs.
Thanks.
YW!
Great post!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.