a hundred million?
I better get busy in the garage.
They have a population of close to 1.4 Billion.
I took the fatality data through Apr 2, 2020, divided it by that country's population and multiplied it by the US' population to put everyone on an even/US footing. I then set Day 1 to be right before each country hits 1,000 deaths on a US population-adjusted basis.
I excluded countries where their size-adjusted fatality count hasn't reached 1,000 yet. I also dropped a few countries where their Day 1 was within the past few days.
The table below is sorted by the Day 10 values; please note the US didn't hit 1,000 deaths until March 26. Unlike with the Confirmed Case data, I did not adjust out the New York State data since other countries may have hot spots, and I want this analysis to be on an equal footing: we don't selectively clean the chad here at FR.
When you look at the data this way, the US is consistently in the middle of the pack. Even if you threw out the top three (which have small populations but they're getting destroyed on a per-capita basis), the US has been consistent in its relative ranking. That means that while our Confirmed Case count is rising, the fatality count on a population-adjusted/relative basis hasn't worsened. It also hasn't gotten better, but this stability should be viewed as a GOOD thing.
Now, the US' Confirmed Case rise started to ramp up on March 19. If it takes 7-14 days for people to be declared 'cured' OR die, then we SHOULD start to see an attendant rise in fatalities. So far, based on this analysis ladies and gentlement...it ain't happenin' yet.
Let's not break out the bubbly yet. We have lots of fellow Americans who are hurting medically, emotionally, and financially. Keep fighting the good fight as we all spend 30 days in the hole...and let's keep praying.
| Country | Day 1 Date | Day 1 | Day 2 | Day 3 | Day 4 | Day 5 | Day 6 | Day 7 | Day 8 | Day 9 | Day 10 |
| Andorra | 3/21/20 | 4,250 | 4,250 | 4,250 | 4,250 | 12,750 | 12,750 | 12,750 | 25,500 | 34,000 | 51,000 |
| West Bank and Gaza | 3/25/20 | - | 28,167 | 28,167 | 28,167 | 28,167 | 28,167 | 28,167 | 28,167 | 28,167 | - |
| San Marino | 3/3/20 | 9,816 | 9,816 | 9,816 | 9,816 | 9,816 | 9,816 | 9,816 | 19,632 | 19,632 | 29,447 |
| United Kingdom | 3/15/20 | 700 | 1,866 | 1,866 | 2,399 | 4,598 | 5,931 | 7,797 | 9,396 | 11,196 | 14,095 |
| Spain | 3/13/20 | 931 | 1,364 | 2,022 | 2,393 | 3,729 | 4,359 | 5,807 | 7,298 | 9,621 | 12,287 |
| France | 3/18/20 | 727 | 1,194 | 2,211 | 2,761 | 3,321 | 4,235 | 5,414 | 6,549 | 8,343 | 9,812 |
| Belgium | 3/19/20 | 601 | 1,058 | 1,916 | 2,145 | 2,516 | 3,489 | 5,090 | 6,291 | 8,264 | 10,094 |
| Italy | 3/5/20 | 810 | 1,078 | 1,275 | 2,002 | 2,533 | 3,452 | 4,524 | 4,524 | 6,926 | 7,883 |
| Netherlands | 3/17/20 | 812 | 1,095 | 1,454 | 2,021 | 2,587 | 3,399 | 4,041 | 5,231 | 6,742 | 8,215 |
| Ireland | 3/25/20 | 603 | 1,272 | 1,473 | 2,411 | 3,080 | 3,616 | 4,754 | 5,692 | 6,562 | - |
| United States | 3/25/20 | 942 | 1,209 | 1,581 | 2,026 | 2,467 | 2,978 | 3,873 | 4,757 | 5,926 | - |
| Sweden | 3/23/20 | 797 | 1,148 | 1,977 | 2,456 | 3,349 | 3,349 | 3,508 | 4,656 | 5,741 | 7,622 |
| Macedonia | 3/24/20 | 970 | 1,455 | 1,455 | 1,455 | 1,940 | 2,910 | 3,394 | 4,364 | 5,334 | 5,334 |
| Portugal | 3/25/20 | 738 | 1,058 | 1,379 | 1,924 | 2,437 | 3,207 | 3,816 | 4,490 | 5,131 | 5,997 |
| Austria | 3/23/20 | 777 | 1,037 | 1,111 | 1,814 | 2,147 | 2,517 | 3,184 | 3,998 | 4,738 | 5,405 |
| Switzerland | 3/16/20 | 537 | 1,036 | 1,075 | 1,574 | 2,073 | 2,879 | 3,761 | 4,606 | 4,682 | 5,872 |
| Germany | 3/25/20 | 816 | 1,058 | 1,355 | 1,716 | 2,113 | 2,556 | 3,072 | 3,646 | 4,388 | - |
| Denmark | 3/23/20 | 736 | 1,358 | 1,811 | 1,924 | 2,321 | 2,943 | 3,679 | 4,075 | 4,358 | 5,094 |
| Luxembourg | 3/17/20 | 537 | 1,074 | 2,147 | 2,147 | 4,295 | 4,295 | 4,295 | 4,295 | 4,295 | 4,831 |
| Iran | 3/9/20 | 937 | 1,151 | 1,400 | 1,697 | 2,033 | 2,416 | 2,863 | 3,373 | 3,907 | 4,489 |
| Cyprus | 3/23/20 | 376 | 1,129 | 1,129 | 1,129 | 1,881 | 1,881 | 1,881 | 2,634 | 3,010 | 3,386 |
| Iceland | 3/23/20 | 905 | 1,809 | 1,809 | 1,809 | 1,809 | 1,809 | 1,809 | 1,809 | 1,809 | 1,809 |