COVID-19 Update - 04/02/2020

My own workup | 04/02/2020 | DoughtyOne

[DoughtyOne]

Please FReep Mail me regarding the ping list
for these reports. Thanks.

COVID-19 Update

As of 04/01/2020 22:52 PDT (taken at 23:59)

To the report...

The following addresses the United States exclusively

Impressive Growth Again Today

COVID-19 is back to breaking new ground. Today's growth in the U. S.
and elsewhere was pretty amazing. Here we are doing our best to make
ourselves miserable, being cooped up inside, and the virus is going
as strong as ever it seems. One wonders if it is worth it, but then
who knows how bad it would be if we didn't shelter in place.

Let's go to the numbers...

            EOD    Day's  Incr of
Date      Cases    Grwth   Growth
-
03/22    33,206    8,459
03/23    46,442   11,236
03/24    54,893    8,789
03/25    60,197   13,966    5,177        
03/26    85,991   16,794    2,828
03/27   104,839   18,848    2,054
03/28   124,665   19,826      978
03/29   143,025   18,360   -1,466
03/30   164,620   21,595    3,235
03/31   189,624   25,004    3,409
04/01   216,721   27,097    2,093

Look at that increase in gain today over yesterday. Ug!

The only good thought is that were going to have some massive
recoveries in a few weeks.

Our Slice of the COVID-19 Pie Continues to Grow

Let's take a moment to address the U. S. portion of the global
declared cases.

I've mentioned that the U. S. has roughly 4.252% of the global
populace. In total we have declared 23.11% of all global declared
cases. When it comes to the active cases, we have 29.12% of them.

We had 2,684 cases resolved today. Yesterday was the highest day
prior to today. It was 832 cases higher than the previous record.
Today's number is 55 cases higher than that. Day by day now, this
number will get higher. We may have a day here and there with a
lower figure, but for the most part we have enough cases two weeks
back that we should start seeing more and more resolutions per day.

Fatalities in the United States

                     Per
Date       Fatal     Day
-
03/26/20   1,301	
03/27/20   1,704     403
03/28/20   2,229     525
03/29/20   2,484     255
03/30/20   3,170     686
03/31/20   3,889     719
04/01/20   5,112   1,223

Currently we have 202,731 active cases in the United States.
13,990 have been resolved.

The following addresses the global numbers
without Mainland China

Global numbers increased at record levels today.

Let's take a look at them.

              EOD    Day's   Incr of
Date        Cases    Grwth    Growth
-
03/20/20   194,148   30,824
03/21/20   225,932   31,784
03/22/20   257,820   31,888
03/23/20   297,172   39,352
03/24/20   341,530   41,462 
03/25/20   390,378   48,848    7,386
03/26/20   451,006   60,628   11,780
03/27/20   516,124   65,118    4,490
03/28/20   583,107   66,983    1,865
03/29/20   641,588   58,481   -8,502
03/30/20   704,051   62,463    3,982
03/31/20   777,887   73,836   11,373
04/01/20   855,389   77,502    3,666

Those are some pretty large numbers. This will go on for
a while. That increase of growth display shows how badly
the hope for smaller growth day to day was smashed.

Roughly two weeks from now we will have upwards of 60 to 70
thousand people being declared recovered each day.

Nations With Lots of Cases

At the end of the day on 04/01/2020, there are:

 3 nations with 100,000 plus* (we're one, with 200,000+)
 3 nations with  50,000 to 99,999
 2 natioms with  20,000 to 49,999
 5 nations with  10,000 to 19,999
 6 nations with   5,000 to  9,999
31 nations with   1,000 to  4,999

50 nations with a 1,000 count or above...

When we read of other large scale communicable diseases
like the flu, we see numbers in the tens of millions with
deaths in the tens of thousands.

We don't pay much attention as those diseases take their
toll. This time we are.

A Look at Declared, Resolved, and Active Cases

Here is a new display of numbers related to the topic.

It includes some Mainland China figures, but of the active
cases today, Mainland China only makes up 00.41% of the numbers.
It's numbers will not heavily influence this report.

End of day figures follow:

            Declar    Day's  Resolv'd    Day's   Pct Dec    Active
Date         Cases   Growth     Cases    Incr   Cs Resol     Cases
-
03/20/20 - 275,434 - 30,911 -  99,655 -  3,590 - 36.181% - 175,779
03/21/20   307,280   31,846   105,425    5,770   34.309%   201,855
03/22/20   339,259   31,979   113,540    8,115   33.467%   225,719
03/23/20 - 381,621 - 42,362 - 118,369 -  4,829 - 31.017% - 263,252
03/24/20   423,121   41,500   127,538    9,169   30.142%   295,583
03/25/20   472,109   48,998   136,178    8,640   28.845%   335,931
03/26/20 - 532,788 - 60.679 - 146,749 - 10,571 - 27.544% - 386,039
03/27/20   598,070   65,282   159,533   12,784   26.675%   438,537
03/28/20   665,164   67,094   171,077   11,544   25.720%   494,087
03/29/20 - 723,740 - 58,576 - 186,060 - 14,983 - 25.708% - 537,680
03/30/20   786,291   62,551   203,926   17,848   25.933%   582,383
03/31/20   860,181   73,890   220,713   16,085   25.659%   639,468
04/01/20 - 937,783 - 77,602 - 241,591 - 20,878 - 25.762% - 696,192

I've been mentioning that resolved percentage, and as you can see,
it's still fighting for every inch it can get there. It's been in
the upper 25% range for five days, or seventeen reports now. Mid
day today, it actually popped up to 26.02% for one report. Then it
was back down in the upper 25% range again. You can see how fast it
was moving down until it hit the upper 25% range.

Population Saturation

Here are the figures revealing how many people in each
population base represent one case.

Globally      :   11,161
Outside China :   11,206
The U. S. A.  :    1,630

Look at the population saturation in the U. S. compared to others.

New Feature: States and Counties¹⁹⁹

Here is a spreadsheet with the States and 199 Counties listed
alphabetically and by declining case numbers. access

Good morning...

All data below sourced from Johns Hopkins University: LINK

...and WorldoMeters: Alternate Data Site

I have been downloading three to five reports per
day since 01/27. I work up the numbers and present them
here.

My spreadsheet is linked for those who have Excel.

You're welcome to it.

COVID-19 Spreadsheet using JHU data

File XLSX

Sorry, the XLS version is not available for dibursement at this time.a

[DoughtyOne]

P I N G

[SteveH]

thanks. New York breakdown as follows:

New York 83901 cases 1941 fatalities*

* new york intelligencer magazine

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/new-york-coronavirus-cases-updates.html

[DoughtyOne]

Thank you Steve

[Zhang Fei]

Thanks for the ping.

---

Overheard on the interwebs as to why the Japanese numbers are so low. First, socialized health care means doctors making life-and-death decisions based on a budget. Second, being a face culture like China, Japan isn’t trying too hard to find or highlight its deaths from covid-19, although China’s dictatorial coercive measures to suppress information are certainly missing in Japan:

---

[But why isn’t Japan with its lack of shelter at home orders and lack of testing experiencing overwhelmed ICU admissions?

In Japan, doctors are responsible for managing the financial aspect of the health systen as well as patient health. So, for examp!e, I went once with RUQ pain and based ob my history the doctor thought maybe pancreatitis but he didn’t order lipase and amylase because, he said, they can generate false negatives and will cost the system money—better to wait and see than spend money on a test.

So I wouldn’t be surprised if there are doctors letting older people pass away in nursing homes or at home rather than admit to the hospital.]

[Vendome]

1941 fatalities ?

How many died from “other causes”?

[SteveH]

> 1941 fatalities ?

> How many died from “other causes”?

dunno. anyways worldometer says 2241 fatalities so maybe that is a better source

[buckalfa]

👍👍👍👍👍🤔

[wastoute]

The Patient vs The Community. Flexner Report. It DOES make a difference. Not ordering an amylase in a patient for whom pancreatitis is a possible diagnosis would not be something that was even contemplated here in my experience, I would have probably been “almost fired”.

[Zhang Fei]

[Not ordering an amylase in a patient for whom pancreatitis is a possible diagnosis would not be something that was even contemplated here in my experience, I would have probably been “almost fired”.]

---

Thanks for the feedback. No idea if this is representative of Japan’s standard of care, but my impression is that many universal health care schemes aren’t particularly great at much except saving money at the expense of quality care in critical situations.

[nbenyo]

How many died of unrelated causes because they received inferior care due to this pandemic?
Will every death due to coronavirus be tested and identified?

[wastoute]

Which is why I keep bringing this up. The Patient vs The Community. Flexner Report. Coming out of this the public needs to be very careful what they demand from the Healthcare industry.

[Zhang Fei]

Overheard on the interwebs re flu season ICU admissions in France vs covid-19:

---

[What’s happening is that unprecedented number of people are coming into ICUs. Quoting Philip Lemoine, who analzyed French data over the past decade, he’s citing to a chart showing ICU admissions for flu over the past decade:

“As you can see, it varies a lot, but even during the worst season, the total number of admissions to ICU for the flu never exceeded 3,000 in that period.”

“By contrast, there are currently 6,017 people in ICU with COVID-19 in France, so we are already way past the number of admissions to ICU caused by the flu during the worst season in the past 10 years. If you include the number of people who have died of COVID-19 in hospitals so far, namely 4,032, as well the people who have left ICU because they had gotten better, we must already be approaching and almost certainly even exceeding 10,000 admissions to ICU in less than 3 weeks.”

It’s not a hoax, it’s not a myth, it’s not a plot, it’s not innumerate Chicken Littles running around. It’s sick people going to the hospital.]

---

There’s also a numerical analysis of covid-19 numbers at this link:

https://necpluribusimpar.net/intellectual-honesty-in-the-time-of-covid-19/

[1_Rain_Drop]

cuomo is trying to fudge NY county numbers to make it seem that the virus is spreading in Upstate NY.

Last week cuomo said he wouldn't move patients Upstate. On Tuesday he moved 14 covid-19 patients to Albany NY (Greene County) due to "overcrowding" in NYC. How will they get back home when they recover? I wasn't aware Javits center and the Central Park field hospital were already fully filled.

He's sending our nurses to NYC to get infected.

Meanwhile, I finally went to the store yesterday Too many strange faces. Probably transplants from NYC. We are not happy.

[Zhang Fei]

The interesting thing about the analysis at the link I provided above, is the author’s suggestion that there is some kind of regional, perhaps racial, disparity in the relative mortality rates due to covid-19:

---

https://necpluribusimpar.net/intellectual-honesty-in-the-time-of-covid-19/
[On the other hand, there are still the cases of Japan, Vietnam and several other Asian countries, which should have been swimming in COVID-19 for a while now, yet where very few deaths attributed to the virus have been recorded so far. Marco suggests that stochasticity in the initial spread of the virus might explain the delay and I guess it’s possible. (The large role that random factors likely played during the initial stages of the epidemic is something I kept stressing myself when people in France were saying that, since we had our first case before Italy and bodies still weren’t piling up, we were safe thanks to the amazing job our government had been doing to protect us. The truth, of course, is that our government hadn’t done shit and that we were anything but safe, as the past few days have unfortunately demonstrated.) In the case of Germany, I agree this explanation is looking increasingly persuasive (although I’m still not entirely convinced), but I have a much harder time buying this story in the case of Japan, Vietnam and other Asian countries. It just seems to me that, given how connected they are to China and how quickly COVID-19 seems to spread, there should be a lot more deaths over there already if this virus really had a fatality rate of ~1%.]

---

Japan hasn’t done much to counter covid-19 infections, and neither has Vietnam, other than stopping flights. And yet their numbers are low, and there are no stories coming out of crowded ICU’s and crematoriums working round the clock. Vietnam doesn’t have a Great Firewall, and hasn’t blocked access to American messaging apps. Bottom line is that there should be no coverup issues there on the scale of China’s.

[SteveH]

I am somewhat familiar with upstate (I am from there). What you describe all sounds sounds horrible to me.

[SteveH]

So far I cannot find the daily NYC stats by zip code, anyone know where they are? I don’t want to and in theory i feel that one should not be compelled to cite anything behind a paywall.

[stockpirate]

put me on your ping list plz

[yldstrk]

My information about VietNam is that they have been sheltering at home for 3 months and the schools are closed and have been for 3 months. Straight from my nail tech.

[SteveH]

https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page