Doomsayers Always Win: Mitigation Credited for California Curve Flattening

RUSH: The media having a field day with this aspect of the briefing yesterday. TheHill.com: “White House Projects Grim Death Toll from Coronavirus — President Trump’s top health advisers said Tuesday that models show between 100,000 and 240,000 Americans could die from the novel coronavirus even if the country keeps stringent social distancing guidelines in place.

“Dr. Deborah Birx explained, ‘There’s no magic bullet. There’s no magic vaccine or therapy. It’s just behaviors.'”

Now, in the 12th paragraph of this story we find this. “Still, Birx and Fauci stressed that the total number of deaths is not certain to hit 100,000 if Americans strictly follow recommendations on social distancing. ‘We really believe and hope every day that we can do a lot better than that,’ Birx said.”

So they’re putting these big numbers out there. And it’s kind of like in the early days of the Trump-Russia collusion, every day, five stories a day, New York Times, Washington Post: “Trump colluded with Russia, we have anonymous experts from the intelligence community who tell us that they’re working on it, providing evidence,” so forth. Twelve paragraphs in you get a little sentence saying: “To date no evidence has been forthcoming to show any collusion between Trump and Russia and the 2016 election.” The previous 15 paragraphs are totally irrelevant. It’s the same thing here. Twelve paragraphs in,

“Still, Birx and Fauci stress the total number of deaths is not certain to hit 100,000 if Americans strictly follow recommendations on social distancing.”

But, see, it doesn’t matter. The 240,000, it’s a new number, so that’s all the media heard, because they want to use that number along with Fauci saying that we can’t let up on restrictions that are killing the economy. Most of the media ignored Fauci’s more optimistic remarks, saying we hope we don’t even get to a hundred thousand. So they don’t have to happen. Hundred thousand deaths does not have to happen. And I’ve got a story here with different models for different states that show a wide variety of projected death tolls, and it illustrates that we’re really not dealing with a one-size-fits-all policy here, even though we are attempting to do just that.

In fact, I’ve got some audio sound bites of — let me go back. Grab audio sound bite number 1. I just want to remind you of the philosophy on the doomsayer. Doomsayers always win, folks. It’s a psychological aspect of life in America and practically everywhere. Doomsayers always win. The doomsayers cannot lose. It is the realists and the optimists like me who have our heads in the guillotine when we try to speak the truth. Here’s what I said on this program on Monday.

RUSH ARCHIVE: The doomsayers always win. Do you realize this? The doomsayers always win in a psychological sense. “What do you mean, Rush?” Well, let me explain it to you. I’m glad you asked. If it’s bad — if it is as bad as they say — they will say, “I warned you. I told you it was going to be 100,000 dead, 200,000 dead. I told you!” If it isn’t as bad as they say, if it doesn’t end up being as bad as they predict, they then say, “It’s only because we warned you to do what was necessary to avoid the threat.”

They are never wrong. The doomsayers are never wrong; they always win. They’ve got an answer for everything. The realists, like me… I’m the mayor of Realville. I am Mr. Literal. This program is Realville. I am the mayor, governor, president, whatever. I’m an optimist. I can’t help it. I have the optimist gene. We never win up against the doomsayers.

RUSH: Meaning that if I were to say, “Folks, I don’t believe the 240,000 figure. It’s gonna be less than that, da-da, I would immediately be attacked for disavowing the experts and misleading people and being irresponsible about it. And so trying — and this is what Trump’s trying to do. Trump has made it clear that he wants to give the country hope. That he’s not a pessimist either. He wants to give the country hope.

He wants to give the people a reason to think that we’re gonna come out of this and come out of this soon. I understand that, and I agree with it, ’cause I believe in self-fulfilling prophecies. You can doom-and-gloom yourself into negative paralysis. You can also talk yourself into optimistic outcomes and create them by virtue of your attitude and behavior. And that’s what Trump is trying to do. And I’m far more comfortable with that. But doing that in the face of all this would be cited as irresponsibility. Because who are you? You’re just a guy on the radio. You’re not an expert. You’re not a health expert. You don’t have access to the models.

Hey, that’s another thing. You know, we keep getting all this modeling data. Wouldn’t it be great if the people doing the models showed up at a briefing? Why do these people get to hide? I got nothing against them, don’t misunderstand. But as you know, I have a problem with modeling. ‘Cause they’re never right. They’re never right, even admitted this. So bring ’em up there. Let’s see the charts and graphs that they are using to produce the data that the experts and the health officials and the president are using to inform people during the briefing.

Now, also yesterday we focused a lot on California. Victor Davis Hanson had a piece at National Review Online yesterday. He said there’s 150 deaths — was it 150 deaths? The California population is 40 million. The number of people dead in California is an infinitesimally small percentage. And it’s really curious because California, 5,000 to 7,000 travelers a day arrive from China in December and January, particularly Chinese New Year. And they’re landing at San Francisco, landing in San Jose, they’re landing in San Jose. Landing in LAX.

And one of the things I was asking, is it possible that the state of California unknowingly had the coronavirus running through its state and population in December and January and they just dealt with it, people got it, didn’t know they had it because we didn’t know about coronavirus and at the time in December and January it was still something that was located in Wuhan, ChiCom.

So the subject came up yesterday, miraculously. Now, of course my name wasn’t mentioned, but, folks, that it doesn’t matter. I am always present at these things. Spent a long time talking about — magically somehow the subject of California came up because they do not have a massively upswinging curve on number of new cases, deaths, hospitalizations. State of Washington, ditto. Their curve is on the way down. And they had the early reporting of 22 deaths in one nursing home out there. So a legitimate question being asked. This came up yesterday at the briefing with Dr. Birx, and this is what she said about California and Washington state.

BIRX: We all remember Washington state. It was just a month ago when they started to have the issues in Washington state, but they brought together their communities and their health providers and they put in strong mitigation methods and testing and you can see what the result in Washington state and California is. But without the continuation for the next 30 days, anything could change.

RUSH: So they’re standing by the belief that social distancing and staying inside, staying home, not mingling, you know, no orgies and that kind of stuff, useless stuff that happens in that state is not happening and that’s why the cases in California, deaths in California are way down. They’re chalking it up to social distancing. No doubt. But can there not be some other explanation for this?

But look. Mitigation is it. That’s what they’re gonna stick with. That’s what they’re laying everything on the line here. Mitigation is the way we’re gonna deal with this. Whenever there is any success anywhere, they’re gonna chalk it up to mitigation, meaning social distancing and staying home and not mingling with people. Here’s the governor of California who was on CBS This Morning today with Anna Werner. His name is Gavin Newsom. Question: What does the data about California’s cases say to you?

NEWSOM: It’s too early for me to judge it, but the reality is the state was quick to move on social distancing. As a consequence, I think some of those early actions may prove fruitful. Time’s everything. Every hour, every minute of every hour, every day is a day we’re never going to get back. Every single day is the opportunity to save lives. And so that’s what we have bought here in California. And that’s what I’m currently focused on. Not the models, I want to prepare for the worst.

RUSH: Well, that’s what the models are. The models are the worst. But, anyway, so you see the credit here is all going to mitigation. And again, that word “mitigation” simply is a substitute for social distancing. Mitigation strategies. How do we mitigate the spread, how do we stop the spread. We don’t come in contact with each other. And that’s what they’re chalking up as the primary reason for the relative success compared to other places in California, state of Washington.

Hey Rush, I think Patrick Henry said it best:

“Mr. President, it is natural to man to indulge in the illusions of hope. We are apt to shut our eyes against a painful truth, and listen to the song of that siren till she transforms us into beasts. Is this the part of wise men, engaged in a great and arduous struggle for liberty? Are we disposed to be of the number of those who, having eyes, see not, and, having ears, hear not, the things which so nearly concern their temporal salvation? For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth; to know the worst, and to provide for it.”

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Keep your eye on Sweden, that is the approach Sweden is taking. Open for business, schools open and no social distancing. It will be interesting to watch. A controlled experiment.

Oh, I don’t think anyone here would deny that the longer the lockdown goes on the more the economy will suffer. But if we get to the point where our ICUs are overloaded the economy will crash anyway. The dead do not spend money.

This thing had the first deaths in the Eastern part of King County where we live. In this part of the state things have run their course and starting to get better. The governor is already trying to take credit for this, but the stay home order was issued just a week ago and there has not been enough time for it to have had any effect. In the mean time the situation in other parts of the state have been getting worse despite the stay at home order.

This thing is going to run its course. If the experience in Eastern King County is any indication... things won’t be much if any worse than the flu season in 2017-18. This panic has been powered by the media and politics. The Democrats really thought this was going to be how they won the presidency back. President Trump’s hands were forced.

So Birx and Fauci need to answer the real question: why did Washington and California have the worst problem in the first place?

Maybe reckless behavior in the first place is the real issue.

But not to doctrinaire Statists like the Debbie and Tony show.

What you said.

I’m sure you’ll get responses about how zillions will die if we go get a slice of pizza.

Except that it’s just not true.

It’s a LIE that NY or NYC hospitals are overrun or short on anything.

I live here. Know people that work in hospitals and know some people in politics.

It’s’ not even close to out of control.

What is out of control is the fear.

“...and to provide for it.”

That’s the key.

OODA [Observe–orient–decide–act cycle]

“Funny, people don’t want to hear the truth about the devastating toll of the coming economic depression though.”

OK, I’ll listen. Tell me (us) what should we expect and what will the massive stimulus do to mitigate what you project will befall us all?

Use detail because as a man who has been a serious investor who religiously follows the markets as well as the economy for 40 yrs+ I think I will be able to follow any amount of detail you care to provide.

And now Fauci and Birx say that the virus Peak Days advance through the April Calendar from East Coast to West Coast ??!! I thought the FIRST cases were noted on the West Coast ??!!

Cyclic Talk

They AREN’T overloaded !

My son’s hospital has furloughed 500 Drs, cuz there’s nothing to do but ready a few $8/per Chest X-Rays

This FEAR is killing us ! The stress on the 80+% of the population will shorten all of our lives

Go Back To Work !
Wash You Hands, but, Go Back To Work !!!

Actually New York started out that way, encouraging people to gather & hug. They changed their mind, but a little too late. That screwed up the data for that experiment.

Sweden is mentally a little denser, they may be able to complete the experiment.

No problem right now =/= Safe to go back to work.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Take a look at the graphs. Exponential curves start out slow and then shoot up.

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