Posted on 04/01/2020 7:22:42 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
The coronavirus may not be as deadly as original estimates predicted, according to a new study published on Monday.
The study, published in The Lancet Infectious Diseases medical journal, says previous estimates were too high because they were based on the case fatality rate (CFR) and didn't account for undiagnosed cases.
The study estimates that the mortality rate of the coronavirus is actually .66 percent.
Earlier this month, Dr. Anthony Fauci estimated that the mortality rate of the coronavirus was about 2 percent. "If you look at the cases that have come to the attention of the medical authorities in China, and you just do the math, the math is about 2%." The World Health Organization estimated a 3.4 percent mortality rate. President Trump endured a lot of criticism for saying that he had a "hunch" that the WHO's estimate was too high.
"Well, I think the 3.4 percent is really a false number. Now, and this is just my hunch, and — but based on a lot of conversations with a lot of people that do this. Because a lot people will have this and it's very mild. They'll get better very rapidly. They don't even see a doctor. They don't even call a doctor," Trump said. "I think that that number is very high. I think the number, personally, I would say the number is way under 1 percent."
That would make Trump's "hunch" correct. That's not to say the coronavirus shouldn't be treated seriously. Assuming that the .66 percent fatality rate is the most accurate estimate, that's still higher than the seasonal flu, which has a mortality rate of .1 percent, and H1N1 (swine flu), which had a mortality rate of .03 percent.
(Excerpt) Read more at pjmedia.com ...
Unexpected.
The trouble is, when this turns out to be true, i.e., a relatively low death rate, the credit will be given to Fauci and Birx — and they’ll be thrilled to take the credit. Then they’ll write books. Fauci will dedicate his to Hillary, and Birx will dedicate hers to Marie Yovanovitch. Both books will emphasize what a dolt Trump is, and how they saved his ass.
I agree ... but .... I am also one of those who has almost all of the mortality factors:
Male
55
A blood type
hypertention
diabeties
scarred lungs from pnemonia (9x)
heart surgery
etc
So I think I will self isolate until I get the vaccine. My doc agrees.
This was a no lose for Fauci, Birx and the whole social distancing thing. If the death rate is low, if the spread slows, they take credit. If it were worse, they did all they could, they’re heroes!
The Swedes are the ones showing bravery. Imagine that.
I suspect that, once the dust settles, the mortality rate estimate will be lowered dramatically once again. The “experts” keep conflating “confirmed infected”’ with “total infected”. You have to wonder if it’s a matter of imprudent haste or of dishonesty, or if they’re just not very bright.
The President is a numbers guy and is fantastic at hunches. I trust him to know how to play this, wish he was not being railroaded, though.
“So I think I will self isolate until I get the vaccine. My doc agrees.”
That’s wise.
This is an scary infection for a lot of people. But it’s not a death sentence. It’s amazing how much they’ve managed to scare healthy people.
I’m going out on a limb here and agreeing with Pres. Trump.
I don’t think we’re gonna see 100,000 deaths over the next 2-3 months, probably more like 50,000 or less, and (my own guess) about 30,000.
No I don’t have a degree in virology or microbiology, but I DO have a general science background and I DO have common sense. 100,000 dead is a LOT of victims, and so far the virus just doesn’t seem to be on that path.
Yes I know it’s bad in some areas, but again, most of the victims were pre-compromised by existing conditions. What we don’t see right now is a broad swath of society, yound and middle-aged, being struck down, like during the Black Death.
Yes I know it’s also dangerous to downplay risks and be overly optimistic, but I gotta go with ALL the evidence I see ... my point is, I think Big Media is partly over-hyping this and panicking everyone needlessly
We will be fine, sooner than we know it
But just this morning they were saying the number of deaths could be between 100,000 and 200,000 which is way lower than .66% of 350,000,000
Smart, sounds like a great plan
I’m at a higher factor too, and will be damned if I want to go near others right now.
I hate being sick, I;d rather have a broken bone than being badly sick.
Check your denominator.
Exactly correct. Based on Fauci’s 2% death rate and 200,000 deaths, that’s 10M infections. We are at 180,000 and they are saying the worst will hit in a week. Not sure how the 200,000 makes sense to any rational thinking person.
Let’s wait a week.
If the actual numbers start coming in well short of those charts we were shown yesterday Dr. Fauci is going to wish he’d retired a decade ago.
Unexpected? How so? This is what was said right at the begging of this outbreak before the phony scare tactics started and sent half of Freeperdom into a Chicken Freeper meltdown.
See this link to the Netherlands for a rational response to Corona:
https://www.government.nl/topics/coronavirus-covid-19/tackling-new-coronavirus-in-the-netherlands
I agree with you, but at this point, it will be a no-win situation for Trump, at least as far as the media is concerned.
Even if the mortality figures come in much lower, even if the economy resumes, and even if the social distancing guidelines are dropped by summer, the media will report through Election Day, that "Trump did too little, too late."
It will be a battle to see who's more effective at getting out their message--the media (Democrats) or the Trump administration.
You also need zinc + Quercitin
Any one of your major health issues is highly correlated with zinc deficiency - but you have many.
Not sure how the 200,000 makes sense to any rational thinking person.
Rational? Who is being rational? We are in a media created panic over a bad case of flu.
Looking back on when the media used to report the news instead of creating the news we would not have our undies in a bunch today.
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