Posted on 03/30/2020 11:42:34 AM PDT by tatown
The Cure Is Now Officially More Dangerous than the Disease.
Thank you WHO Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, NIAID Director Dr. Anthony Fauci and globalist elites everywhere!
During the Great Depression the highest rate of US unemployment was 24.9% in 1933.
The St. Louis Fed projected on Monday the US unemployment rate during the coronavirus panic could reach 32% unemployment — higher than the Great Depression!
The St. Louis Fed estimated that 42 million Americans could lose their jobs.
A man-made depression is coming.
And it was all caused by faulty data!
I understand going to Drudge, I did for years, but his site is completely corrupted these days. Many of us like CitizenFreePress.com and BonginoReport.com. Drudge’s page views are way down, we’re boycotting him.
All weekend I have been furious. Absolutely furious what we were fed by the media. Furious that 2 trillion was blown on Democrat Party programs and goodies. Furious that so many like bartenders, waiters, store employees have lost their jobs, and this joke of a virus is going to peak in 2 weeks, with most likely at most 10,000 US deaths. I’m pissed that for even one second I was worried personally about COVID 19 and fell for the hype. Neither the USA or Canada are Italy. Trump closed the border to China, when Italy was screwing around to appease their Chi Com masters. Chi Com business men kept flying into northern Italy spreading the virus, while the USA and Canada was locked down.
LOL. I want to get some cash in the market, so I go to Drudge for the absolute worst case scenarios. Or CNBC. I heard Matt Drudge sold it to some liberals.
Once in awhile I listen to the Bongino web cast. I love it.
I believe they revised that 1.7 million death figure, upwards to 2.2 million.
The panic around it is because that’s a worst-case number, meaning no intervention by government and no effective precautionary public measures. Based on AI computers and reams of data from past epidemics in a very large population of 32 million.
I think we’ll be much better in a few weeks (at least the end of April) but there are also certain credible actors that are in full-on panic over the seriousness of the epidemic:
https://www.instagram.com/tv/B-GX-D1DKJ_/?utm_source=ig_embed
That's what seems to be the predominant view -- there are threads about it here at FR.
I went cold turkey on his site, but in the months before that I noticed a trend toward Trump-bashing.
Agreed. We are risking 30% unemployment over a virus that has killed 0.0005% of the worlds population, almost all of whom are old and/or sick. We can protect those people without destroying our economy.
Great point. My company deals in commercial real estate, mainly. We’ve had countless tenants effectively put out of business. Other interests non-inclusive.
As much as we’d like to enforce the benefit of the contractual bargain, where does the buck stop when the government intervenes?
“The St. Louis Fed projected on Monday the US unemployment rate could reach 32% unemployment — higher than the Great Depression!”
And it’s from an entirely different cause and it won’t result in another Great Depression.
The Great Depression was caused by a massive collapse of the American banking system which lasted for a decade.
We don’t have that situation now and the Covid panic won’t make one happen.
As soon as everyone is able to return to work the economy will begin a strong recovery. At worst we get a very nasty but short lived recession.
“Even holders of US Government debt backed by the full faith and credit of the US will take a haircut by virtue of negative interest rates appearing more likely since March 1.”
Negative interest rates don’t affect Treasury paper.
“Lets not be hysterical”
Don’t spoil the fun. Freepers are on a roll.
I completely disagree. The series of bankruptcies that are about to cascade through our economy will be stunning. Come on down to Texas and have a look at the energy sector. There are roughly 2 million six digit plus jobs that are on the brink of disappearing. Another month of the US economy being shuttered will put us in a hole that will take years to climb out of. In the interim plenty of communist policies will find their way into the fabric of American life. All for a virus that has killed a mere 0.0005% of the population.
Not the first time that the U.S. energy sector has been decimated. The last time didn’t collapse the national economy and this one won’t either.
Energy prices will recover some when the global economy picks up and the Russia vs Saudi Arabia pissing contest ends. That may not revive fracking because the Saudis and Russians have a mutual interest in keeping us out of the production market.
“Another month of the US economy being shuttered will put us in a hole that will take years to climb out of.”
It’s going to be a V-shaped recovery. It will take a year at most to sort out. People are eager to get back to work. Lenders will have an interest in keeping their clients alive, most won’t foreclose. The $1,200 may not sound like much but it will keep demand from collapsing.
This isn’t what Depressions are made of. It’s a recession that will come to a sharp end when the virus is over.
Of course this isn’t the first or last time the energy sector has seen bad times. This is very different however. Never has the energy sector tried to recover in an environment of 30% unemployment. Never in the history of this country have we seen 40 million people seeking work. This virus avoidance will have a final price tag of 10-15 trillion. Good luck with a V recovery in that environment.
30% unemployment is only due to the quarantine/social separation. There was no underlying financial cause. It’s an imposed unemployment not a cyclical one.
This isn’t a banking collapse like what caused the Great Depression. It’s going to be a quick recovery once businesses are allowed to resume. People will get rehired.
I completely disagree.
“I completely disagree.”
That’s what makes markets.
We should be able to tell by July.
Good point that I should have made more clear. No, they don't directly. Rates will be driven down for Treasury paper, but (for me) are a safer bet than commercial or or government backed securities.
XOM has a high yield. Blood’s in the street for oil stocks.
I own IMO - a sentimental hold. I always make room for those types of purchases - and consider it play money given sentiment has a lot to do with the purchase.
Sometimes it works out - see CLX. And sometimes it doesn’t - see the aforementioned IMO!
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