I believe they revised that 1.7 million death figure, upwards to 2.2 million.
The panic around it is because that’s a worst-case number, meaning no intervention by government and no effective precautionary public measures. Based on AI computers and reams of data from past epidemics in a very large population of 32 million.
I think we’ll be much better in a few weeks (at least the end of April) but there are also certain credible actors that are in full-on panic over the seriousness of the epidemic:
https://www.instagram.com/tv/B-GX-D1DKJ_/?utm_source=ig_embed
I’m sticking with 10,000 april end, and 35,000 total after a year.