Posted on 03/28/2020 8:44:39 AM PDT by Texas Fossil
There is room for different interpretations of the data
In announcing the most far-reaching restrictions on personal freedom in the history of Britain nation, Prime Minister Boris Johnson resolutely followed the scientific advice that he had been given. The advisers to the UK government seem calm and collected, with a solid consensus among them. In the face of a new viral threat, with numbers of cases surging daily, I’m not sure that any prime minister would have acted very differently.
But I’d like to raise some perspectives that have hardly been aired in the past weeks, and which point to an interpretation of the figures rather different from that which the government is acting on. I’m a recently-retired Professor of Pathology and National Health Service consultant pathologist, and have spent most of my adult life in healthcare and science — fields which, all too often, are characterized by doubt rather than certainty. There is room for different interpretations of the current data. If some of these other interpretations are correct, or at least nearer to the truth, then conclusions about the actions required will change correspondingly.
The simplest way to judge whether we have an exceptionally lethal disease is to look at the death rates. Are more people dying than we would expect to die anyway in a given week or month? Statistically, we would expect about 51,000 to die in Britain this month. At the time of writing, 422 deaths are linked to COVID-19 so 0.8 percent of that expected total. On a global basis, we’d expect 14 million to die over the first three months of the year. The world’s 18,944 coronavirus deaths represent 0.14 percent of that total. These figures might shoot up but they are, right now, lower than other infectious diseases that we live with (such as flu).
(Excerpt) Read more at spectator.us ...
Condolences. 43 years for me and mine. Still going strong health wise. I had a brain tumor removed 2 Januarys ago. A lot of family didn’t even think I was gonna make it (including me at times). Well...I’m back!...by POPULAR DEMAND. : )
I am glad.
We may not fit the age group, but I’m not standing still. My focus now is rebuilding my life. And putting out farmily farm back in order. After many some years of neglect.
Still helping care for my father. He is a great man. And does pretty well for 94.
WOW
Thanks. I thought the article was spot on.
India also has a completely different climate from Wuhan. Its mostly hot and humid and hardly suffers from viral outbreaks.
Blood type may be a factor but there isn’t enough data
Blood type may be a factor but there isn’t enough data”
Unlike the western world where it’s very rare, China, India and especially Pakistan have relatively high blood numbers of people with type B.
https://www2.palomar.edu/anthro/vary/vary_3.htm
True, it looks that way - but I’m saying there are other variables:
India and Pakistan (ethnically they are one people) - have a hotter climate and more humidity than much of China.
China implemented draconian rules to keep people in place.
I’m not discounting the theory - just saying we don’t have enough data to state it conclusively.
Perhaps if we see the numbers out of India and Pakistan by blood type, we can be clearer.
“Thanks. I thought the article was spot on.”
After a re-read John Lee does bring up a lot of factors which aren’t even considered here. OK, I’m with you on this one, given that comparison.
Thanks for your input causing me to re-evaluate. I appreciate it.
ferret_airlift wrote:
“A personal anecdote that may mean nothing:
Back in January, we picked up a nasty little bug from a family member of my wife’s, who had been traveling. I’m no saying it was this, just a thought.
We of course, got it.
It hit my wife and son quite hard. 2+ weeks for full recovery.
It barely touched my daughter and I. Less than a week of minor symptoms.
My daughter and I are type O.
My wife and son are type A.”
——very interesting——
Thanks for posting this info!
JPJones wrote:
“I read somewhere about the Chinese virus and blood type. So I looked it up:
It turns out there’s a lot of (relatively) blood type A in europe. Lot’s of China Virus.
Where is there alot of A in the USA?
NorthEast Coast, Louisiana, and the Northwest (WA). Same as the epi-centers.
Huh.
India which has a hugh population and is right next to China, has almost no China virus. Lot’s of type B’s there, same for the Korea’s.
Same goes for alot of the mideast, like pakistan, iran (lot’s of A’s too) and iraq. Lot’s of B’s,”
Many thanks for this info!!!
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