Data updated as of March 27.
Posted on 03/28/2020 5:43:14 AM PDT by jazminerose
Dr. Anthony Fauci, the health specialist on the coronavirus task force, has said the virus’s mortality rate is closer to that of a bad case of the flu. In a Thursday report published by the New England Journal of Medicine, Fauci conceded COVID-19’s death rate was twice that of the common flu, making it roughly 0.28 percent.
That rate is exceptionally low, especially when compared to that of the SARS and MERS epidemics, which peaked at 9 percent and 36 percent respectively.
His latest comments marked a major about-face for Fauci, who previously claimed the coronavirus was 10 times as deadly as the flu.
“The seasonal flu that we deal with every year has a mortality of 0.1 percent,” he said. “I think if you count all the cases of minimally symptomatic or asymptomatic infection, that probably brings the mortality rate down to somewhere around 1 percent, which means it is 10 times more lethal than the seasonal flu.”
This is NOT a valid sample to extrapolate to the population at large. Cruise ship demographics are different: much older, much more health compromised (obesity/O2), and much more mobility compromised than the general population.
These are my observations from a lot of cruises over a couple of decades.
If you use Diamond Princess as a template, the observations skew to a much more deadly rate than will be seen in the US at large. If anything, I’m pleasantly surprised to see the Diamond Princess death rate is, thankfully, as low as it is.
God bless them.
“China’s HCS is a thin veneer of modern medicine covering a cesspool of mysticism, herbal remedies and superstition.”
Pretty much the same as NY City will be if the trending on Post 31 continues for another week.
And it gets MORE FUN when we run out of drugs to treat people.
Data updated as of March 27.
When you have the populace eating anything that breathes or crawls knowing that they carry many viruses, this is telling you they have no real food sources or they are just plain stupid. The scumedia report and want you to believe that the eating of these “exotic animals” are a Chinese tradition and if you disagree you must be xenophobic
But what if treatments come on line that interdict, not cure, the disease.
Let’s say that the combo regime of the Hydroxycloroquine (or is it fish tank cleaner, I am so confused) and Azithromycin were only 50% effective? That efficacy alone would shorten the length of hospital stays. It would flatten the curve immensely even at only 40%.
The problem with this situation is that it somewhat defies analysis since the factors on the ground are constantly changing.
Our media is purposefully stuck on day 0.
I am not. Neither I think is Trump’s team which are seeing the data now and, judging by their public comments, are concluding two things:
Yup, this is bad
Nope, not nearly as bad as the initial assessment and projections indicated.
Within a week we know more through the test about the true patient population. Just a feeling that a lot of backtracking and some revised guidelines are about to be implemented.
I also predict that those blue state governors are about to change their tunes. They are addicted to your money and they have figured this out:
No work, no business, NO TAX REVENUES.
Cuomo has a moment of honesty on Thursday when he let that realization slip.
“If they are swayed by emotion or other political considerations, or are being provided with inaccurate information, then it is entirely possible that they are acting irrationally.”
So China, which gives not a rat’s ass about human life, tore up the roads and put a military cordon around its main transportation hub and tanked its own economy for at least two quarters out of some irrational emotional response?
Not buying it.
“Thats my theory. I can’t say if it was on purpose, or it just happened. Or quite likely that the Chinese saw it happening and did not care to stop it. Its like accidentally starting a kitchen fire in your girlfriends home after you suspect she is cheating on you. Do you put it out. Or do you see the possibilities and just let it play out.”
It’s not a bad theory, but the only way to really put it out is to warn the world and then accept the incoming. So who knows?
I’m shocked to hear this, shocked.
John Birch has more credibility than you. Birch advised us, rightly so, to leave the UN. You advise us to lockdown and complete the destruction of our economy over some relatively minor nationwide medical disturbance. Don’t give me your BS 2.5 million potential dead Americans, but rather the “revised” 20,000 number. Give me any horror story FACTS, not projections, that you have. Not the millions dead or triage or DNR or no ventilators or any other media hysteria you seem to have bought into. The medical complications and or numbers of resultant hospitalizations or deaths is much less than the flu. Prove that statement wrong or gear back on repeating the stooge propaganda.
Thank you Travis!
I enjoy FR because of the real investigative and analytical talent of so many contributors. The Bush forgery that Rather tried to pass, and things like that are found here, often first.
The bickering heard on FR today, I attribute to fear. People are scared for their retirement or scared of this disease. It is unfortunate, and hard to read through.
I sure appreciate the information you provide in your posts.
Wait!! The models show me that as a disease spreads the number of deaths increase!!! Wow, surely that has never happened in the history of every freaking pandemic since ever.
Or did it and we weren’t driven into the current fear induced panic by our media who now suddenly gives a crap?
What did those graphs you keep posting look like for H1N1?
I would like to see them because I bet they are somewhat similar (H1N1 being slightly less severe). And before you say now way was H1N1 as deadly, we can’t say that until this thing runs its course and we have the true data.
Do you understand the difference between a model (future guess) and actual reported data put on a log graph?
Obviously, you don’t.
I’m not posting anything that is a model, a projection, a theory or a guess.
Just actual data.
Deal with it.
From the DP, and to a marginally lesser degree SK, we do know the distribution of severity of cases. 5% critical, 15% serious, 25% mild, 55% asymptomatic.
Since we can assume at this point that due to the lack of test kits and hospital space, most of the new reported cases are serious or critical (not really, but statistically it is approaching that point) we can estimate the number of cases in NYC at 5 times the reported numbers. Same for any saturated HCS. The rest of the country, not so much.
Based on that logic, with lots of margin for the FluBros, the total exposed population of the US is less than 1% as of yesterday. Today, not so sure. Tomorrow, probably more than 1%.
And that is with massive containment efforts. Imagine the numbers without the lockdowns and closings.
And the best survival rate we’ve managed is just over 98% with more than half of the cases still to resolve.
Of course, you do realize that almost a third of the folks on the ship were crew, which are actually younger than normal (and presumably more healthy than normal).
If you want to dig into the weeds here is all the data:
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/pdfs/mm6912e3-H.pdf
So, it's the flu.
And also, I want to get this straight:
YOU BELIEVE WHAT CHINA TOLD THE WORLD?!?!
Really?
Really?
Sorry for your stock market losses...but no, they’re not coming back.
“SM is overwhelmed with people who seriously believe that WHO is completely credible.”
They believe the same about CDC and NIH.
Thanks, I do.
Yes, thank you Travis for posting data that has as its fear premise, as its underpinnings that we can trust the data from a Communist regime that EVERYONE accepts his this virus from the world in the first place.
According to China, we are doing a worse job than China did in containing this virus that they said never existed in the first place until it did and they couldn’t cover it up anymore.
But let’s all trust the WHO for accurate reporting and please pay no attention to that China behind the WHO curtain.
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