Yes, we know.
Posted on 03/26/2020 10:49:10 PM PDT by Its All Over Except ...
Dr. Deborah Birx on Thursday provided encouraging coronavirus numbers suggesting that some of the predictive models were incorrect.
“There’s no model right now, no reality on the ground, where we can see that 60-70 percent of Americans are going to get infected in the next 10-12 weeks,” she said.
Without specifically naming the Imperial College, Brix referred to models that predicted there could be 500,000 coronavirus deaths in the United Kingdom and 2.2 million deaths in the United States.
The scientist of the model revised the estimate of deaths in the United Kingdom to be roughly 20,000 people or fewer.
Birx said that the actual data coming in from other countries were different than some of the direst projections.
She noted that in major countries, there was never an attack rate of over one in over 1,000 people.
“The predictions of the models don’t match the reality on the ground on either China, South Korea, or Italy,” she said.
Birx also addressed reports that raised the alarm of New York City hospitals running out of ICU beds, ventilators, and creating “Do Not Resuscitate” (DNR) policies for patients.
She revealed that she spoke with health officials in New York, that there were still ICU beds and 1000-2000 ventilators available, and that there were no DNR policies enacted.
“We don’t have evidence of that right now,” she said.
...
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
The you have me, was running low on TP and decided to wait one more day to run out and get some more, then the idiots hoarded it all.
Why would the CDC tell state and local governments how to be prepared in their locales? What the hell does Atlanta know about conditions in East Bejesus? Big Brother with a club?
More toilet paper and hand sanitizer for you! Just kidding.
One of the best comments I have seen.
Davey Culhane:
“”Models” are based on assumptions - assumptions that vary considerably in validity.
You can run a lot of “numbers” in an effort to feign credibility, but, as they say “garbage in - garbage out”. Drama oriented “news” outlets can select extreme samples of predictions to get attention. But, the extremely alarming predictions are typically extreme. The fact that we have no idea how many people have been infected by the corona virus and recovered without any involvement of the medical system means that the mortality rate calculated from known (due to severity) cases will be inflated, probably by a lot. It is currently looking clearly below !%.
I think it is becoming apparent that we will be relaxing the severe restrictions in less affected counties, and allow healthy people to resume normal lives, while maintaining good hygiene and cautions.”
OK,
You now seem to be running an Appeal to Authority argument now.
Your CV?
You first.
Given the weirdness of how this all unfolded there needs to be a close look at what has transpired.
Legit concerns that this was overblown to damage President Trump. Even cause for legit concerns that the lack of a timely test was not totally accidental. Had there been testing available a month ago there may have been enough hard data to avoid this shut down.
President Trump shut down country because of hypothetical, unknown unknown threat of half a million dead Americans by summer and over two million dead by end of year due to very unusual circumstances and very irresponsible predictions by agenda driven players who really hate and who have friends and relatives who legitimately fear going to jail if President Trump is not taken down
The Brits did that because by law only two hospitals in the country can treat a disease so designated. HCID is for things like Ebola and Marburg. Not being an HCID just means they can treat CV at all hospitals.
Yes, we know.
Yes he his. And just look what side the shill is on this time.
That should tell everybody what the truth is.
So frickin true
I noticed they rewrote that article later in the day
Some good info there. You nailed it. :-)
I too think she’s solid and impressive....
...but, like you, I have a wait and see attitude.
It’s obvious Dr. Birx is lying. The “experts” on FR breathlessly told us there were no more ventilators or beds available. They knew this because their cousin is a doctor in Manhattan and said this virus was “like nothing we’ve ever seen before” and “of biblical proportions.” Why would they lie? /s
Wow, just wow. (Shaking head...)
Try reading. Your questions are truly Bidenesque.
That author of the British estimate owes many countries a —LOT— of money.
So, the worst case scenario is NOT the likely scenario after all?
Surprise, surprise.
This is exactly what President Trump and other level-headed people have been trying to point out all along - only to be called “flu-bros”. The worst case scenario is by definition unlikely to unfold.
The worst case scenario and the best case scenario are two extremes in a wide range of possibilities and therefore they are the two LEAST likely scenarios. What is most likely is somewhere in between. Obviously.
Data curves for other countries are chalk full of unknowns, assumptions, uncertainties. Each country is different in so many ways. The data is far too incomplete to rely on. The assumed causal relationships are far too unproven. The US outcone is simply NOT predictable.
One piece of data - mortality rate - is fraught with error and omission. The denominator is grossly understated by the lack of testing, and the numerator is conflated with deaths that had multiple causes. We simply have no idea how many infections there are, and to publish a bullshit mortality rate that is exaggerated by orders of magnitude does nothing but sow panic amongst the ignorant - but that’s the whole idea isn’t it?
Trump’s enemies immediately saw this viral outbreak and the public’s fear of it as something to exploit - an opportunity to damage the President’s pre-election economy. The ABCNNBCBS media monopoly, the DNC, Democrat governors, legislators and presidential candidates - all joined the chorus - and stirred up a panic and began shutting down businesses.
And all you statistically-challenged know-it-alls, even here on FR, have played right into their hands, spreading panic and doomsday scenarios, and arrogantly claiming scientific knowledge that you don’t have.
Rational thinkers include the worst case scenario in a range of possibilities, but when planning a course of action we weigh the likely cost of an action against the likely benefit. To do otherwise would be irrational.
You people were wrong to push worst case scenarios as if it were inevitable, and your arrogance, your naked appeals to authority and your spurious claims of scientific prescience have caused needless harm to the economy, and have aided and abetted the Left’s get-Trump agenda.
I hope you chicken littles are satisfied.
*snip*
You people were wrong to push worst case scenarios as if it were inevitable, and your arrogance, your naked appeals to authority and your spurious claims of scientific prescience have caused needless harm to the economy, and have aided and abetted the Left’s get-Trump agenda.
Attaboy.
#SheepNoMore
It’s not quite that harmless as the mortality rate can attest to. Being dismissive is as harmful as panicking. People simply need to exercise good judgment and common sense while throwing conventional wisdom to the wind.
The number of dead people is trivial when compared with auto accidents or flu, or even 9/11.
What if they have a pandemic and not many die?
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